Estimating the functional form for the density dependence from life history data

Two contrasting approaches to the analysis of population dynamics are currently popular: demographic approaches where the associations between demographic rates and statistics summarizing the population dynamics are identified; and time series approaches where the associations between population dynamics, population density, and environmental covariates are investigated. In this paper, we develop an approach to combine these methods and apply it to detailed data from Soay sheep (Ovis aries). We examine how density dependence and climate contribute to fluctuations in population size via age- and sex-specific demographic rates, and how fluctuations in demographic structure influence population dynamics. Density dependence contributes most, followed by climatic variation, age structure fluctuations and interactions between density and climate. We then simplify the density-dependent, stochastic, age-structured demographic model and derive a new phenomenological time series which captures the dynamics better than previously selected functions. The simple method we develop has potential to provide substantial insight into the relative contributions of population and individual-level processes to the dynamics of populations in stochastic environments

Development of lens opacities with peculiar characteristics in patients affected by thalassemia major on chelating treatment with deferasirox (ICL670) at the Pediatric Clinic in Monza, Italy.

About the 11–14% of patients with thalassemia major (TM) treated with deferasirox (DFO) develops retinopathy and/or lens opacities with an unclear pathogenesis but with a clear age related pattern.[1][1],[2][2] Possible causes can be either iron overload itself or DFO toxicity, with variou

Playing “hide and seek” with the Mediterranean monk seal: a citizen science dataset reveals its distribution from molecular traces (eDNA)

Animal conservation relies on assessing the distribution and habitat use of species, but for endangered/elusive animals this can prove difficult. The Monk Seal, Monachus monachus, is one of the world's most endangered species of pinniped, and the only one endemic to the Mediterranean Sea. During recent decades, direct observations have been few and scattered, making it difficult to determine its distribution away from the Aegean Sea (core distribution area of the post-decline relict population). This study relies on environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis to detect the presence of the Monk Seal in 135 samples collected in 120 locations of the central/western Mediterranean Sea, spanning about 1500 km longitudinally and 1000 km latitudinally. A recently described species-specific qPCR assay was used on marine-water samples, mostly collected during 2021 by a Citizen Science (CS) project. Positive detections occurred throughout the longitudinal range, including the westernmost surveyed area (Balearic archipelago). The distribution of the positive detections indicated six “hotspots”, mostly overlapping with historical Monk Seal sites, suggesting that habitat-specific characteristics play a fundamental role. We applied single-season occupancy models to correct for detection probability and to assess the importance of site-specific characteristics. The distance from small islets and protected (or access-restricted) areas was correlated negatively with the detection probability. This novel molecular approach, applied here for the first time in an extensive CS study, proved its potential as a tool for monitoring the distribution of this endangered/elusive species

Understanding protection from SARS-CoV-2 using metabolomics

The COVID-19 pandemic is still raging in most countries. Although the recent mass vaccination campaign has opened a new chapter in the battle against SARS-CoV-2, the world is still far from herd immunity. There is an urgent need to identify healthy people at high risk of contracting COVID-19, as well as supplements and nutraceuticals that can reduce the risk of infection or mitigate symptoms. In the present study, a metabolic phenotype that could protect individuals from SARS-CoV-2 infection or predispose them to developing COVID-19 was investigated. Untargeted metabolomics was performed on serum samples collected from 51 healthcare workers who were in good health at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy, and who were later exposed to the same risk of developing COVID-19. Half of them developed COVID-19 within three weeks of the blood collection. Our results demonstrate the presence of a specific signature associated with protection from SARS-CoV-2. Circulating monolaurin, which has well-known antiviral and antibacterial properties, was higher in protected subjects, suggesting a potential defensive role against SARS-CoV-2 infection; thus, dietary supplements could boost the immune system against this infection. In addition, our data demonstrate that people with higher levels of cholesterol are at higher risk of developing COVID-19. The present study demonstrates that metabolomics can be of great help for developing personalized medicine and for supporting public healthcare strategies. Studies with larger cohorts of subjects are necessary to confirm our findings

Aproximacions demogràfiques per avaluar l’estat de conservació de la baldriga cendrosa Calonectris diomedea i la baldriga balear Puffinus mauretanicus: Demographic approaches for assessing the conservation status of Scopoli’s Shearwater Calonectris diomedea and the Balearic Shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus

In the north-western Mediterranean there are two breeding species of procellariforms from the Procellariidae family: Scopoli’s shearwater Calonectris diomedea and the Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus. Long-term monitoring carried out in a number of breeding colonies provides enough data to be able to assess the conservation status of both species using demographic approaches that estimate parameters such as survival, recruitment and fertility. This type of approach is recommended because it provides a reliable conservation diagnosis and knowledge of the processes that determine variations in population dynamics. Both species were found to have critically low adult survival rates, unexpected in such long-lived species, which makes these populations unviable under current conditions. This agrees with previous available information on incidental bycatch on fishing gears, and confirms that this threat, together with predation by terrestrial carnivores are of critical concern for the conservation of the populations. The fact that some of the breeding colonies did not show a declining trend indicates that several compensatory mechanisms, such as an immigration rescue effect, may be acting at local level. Nevertheless, all the evidence gathered to date suggests that these compensatory mechanisms are not permanent and that if no action is taken these populations could become extinct. In the case of Scopolis’ shearwater, the global population is much more abundant, so there may be time for mitigation actions to be undertaken. Given the size of the breeding population of Balearic shearwaters, we recommend urgent measures be carried out to reduce adult mortality in this endemic species to prevent its extinction

Testing the Goodness of Supplementary Feeding to Enhance Population Viability in an Endangered Vulture

[Background]: Human-predator conflicts are directly or indirectly threatening many species with extinction. Thus, biologists are urged to find simple solutions to complex situations while avoiding unforeseen conservation outcomes. The provision of supplementary food at artificial feeding sites (AFS) is frequently used in the conservation of scavenger bird populations currently suffering from indirect poisoning, although no scientific studies on its effectiveness have been conducted.[Methodology/Principal Findings]: We used a long-term data set of 95 individually marked birds from the largest European core of the endangered bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) to test the long-term effects of specific AFS for bearded vultures on their survival rates (by CMR models) and population dynamics (by Monte Carlo simulations) in an area where fatalities derived from illegal poisoning and the use of other toxics like veterinary drugs have increased over the last several years. Our data support the positive relationship between the use of AFS and survival. However, contrary to theoretical predictions (e.g. high and more stable adult survival among long-lived species), the use of AFS increased only survival of pre-adults. Moreover, AFS buffered the effects of illegal poisoning on this age-class, while adult survival decreased over years. Our simulations predicted a maximum value of extinction probability over a time horizon of 50 years. Population projections run with survival rates expected in scenarios without poisoning predicted the situation of least conservation concern, while including only AFS can maintain a large floater surplus that may delay population decline but fails to reduce poisoning risk among adults.[Conclusions/Significance]: Although AFS are not effective to save bearded vultures from an expected population decline, they delay population extinction and can be a useful tool for prolonging population viability while combating illegal and indirect poisoning. The eradication of different sources of poisoning is of top priority to ensure the long-term viability of this and many other species.Financial support for AM was obtained from the Departament of Medi Ambient i Habitatge of Generalitat de Catalunya and Ministry of Environment. MC was supported by an Excellence post-doctoral contract (Junta de Andalucía).Peer reviewe

Contribución del anillamiento al conocimiento y conservación de las aves en España: pasado, presente y futuro

El anillamiento científico de aves es una técnica de estudio con más de un siglo de historia que, probablemente, ha contribuido como ninguna otra metodología al conocimiento de la biología de este grupo faunístico. A pesar del desarrollo de nuevas tecnologías, el marcaje individual de aves mediante anillamiento sigue siendo una técnica plenamente vigente y necesaria. Aunque la evidencia científica sobre los beneficios de la aplicación del anillamiento en la Ornitología moderna es abrumadora, hoy vivimos un proceso de creciente desinformación que cuestiona el anillamiento de aves y su utilidad. Este dosier se ha elaborado con el fin de ofrecer una visión actualizada de la utilidad del anillamiento científico de aves en España. Ha sido elaborado por un nutrido grupo de expertos asociados a universidades y centros de investigación que abarcan buena parte de las áreas del conocimiento implicadas en el estudio y conservación de las aves. El dosier se divide en cuatro grandes apartados. (1) En primer lugar se hace una introducción sobre el anillamiento como metodología y se resumen las grandes cifras del anillamiento en España donde, hasta la fecha, se han anillado algo más de 10.000.000 de aves y se han registrado 700.000 recuperaciones (en la actualidad se anillan unas 380.000 aves y se obtienen unas 30.000 recuperaciones anualmente). (2) En un segundo bloque se resume la aplicación del anillamiento en diferentes aproximaciones al estudio científico de las aves, que van apoyadas por numerosas referencias bibliográficas sobre trabajos llevados a cabo en España. Gracias al anillamiento se han podido abordar múltiples estudios sobre movimientos y migraciones, reproducción, demografía, enfermedades, morfología, muda e identificación y taxonomía. (3) Un tercer bloque se centra en la utilidad del anillamiento más allá de la investigación básica. Es el caso de la conservación, la gestión de especies cinegéticas y el estudio de los impactos del cambio global sobre las aves, por un lado, y la educación ambiental, formación y ciencia ciudadana, por otro. (4) Finalmente, se abordan algunas ideas sobre los retos actuales y perspectivas de futuro del anillamiento en España

Gaviota patiamarilla

Peer reviewe

Buying Years to Extinction: Is Compensatory Mitigation for Marine Bycatch a Sufficient Conservation Measure for Long-Lived Seabirds?

Along the lines of the ‘polluter pays principle’, it has recently been proposed that the local long-line fishing industry should fund eradication of terrestrial predators at seabird breeding colonies, as a compensatory measure for the bycatch caused by the fishing activity. The measure is economically sound, but a quantitative and reliable test of its biological efficacy has never been conducted. Here, we investigated the demographic consequences of predator eradication for Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, breeding in the Mediterranean, using a population model that integrates demographic rates estimated from individual life-history information with experimental measures of predation and habitat structure. We found that similar values of population growth rate can be obtained by different combinations of habitat characteristics, predator abundance and adult mortality, which explains the persistence of shearwater colonies in islands with introduced predators. Even so, given the empirically obtained values of survival, all combinations of predator abundance and habitat characteristics projected a decline in shearwater numbers. Perturbation analyses indicated that the value and the sensitivity of shearwater population growth rates were affected by all covariates considered and their interactions. A decrease in rat abundance delivered only a small increase in the population growth rate, whereas a change in adult survival (a parameter independent of rat abundance) had the strongest impact on population dynamics. When adult survival is low, rat eradication would allow us to “buy” years before extinction but does not reverse the process. Rat eradication can therefore be seen as an emergency measure if threats on adult survival are eliminated in the medium-term period. For species with low fecundity and long life expectancy, our results suggest that rat control campaigns are not a sufficient, self-standing measure to compensate the biological toll of long-line fisheries

The efficacy of iron chelator regimes in reducing cardiac and hepatic iron in patients with thalassaemia major: a clinical observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Available iron chelation regimes in thalassaemia may achieve different changes in cardiac and hepatic iron as assessed by MR. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of four available iron chelator regimes in 232 thalassaemia major patients by assessing the rate of change in repeated measurements of cardiac and hepatic MR.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For the heart, deferiprone and the combination of deferiprone and deferoxamine significantly reduced cardiac iron at all levels of iron loading. As patients were on deferasirox for a shorter time, a second analysis ("Initial interval analysis") assessing the change between the first two recorded MR results for both cardiac and hepatic iron (minimum interval 12 months) was made. Combination therapy achieved the most rapid fall in cardiac iron load at all levels and deferiprone alone was significantly effective with moderate and mild iron load. In the liver, deferasirox effected significant falls in iron load and combination therapy resulted in the most rapid decline.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>With the knowledge of the efficacy of the different available regimes and the specific iron load in the heart and the liver, appropriate tailoring of chelation therapy should allow clearance of iron. Combination therapy is best in reducing both cardiac and hepatic iron, while monotherapy with deferiprone or deferasirox are effective in the heart and liver respectively. The outcomes of this study may be useful to physicians as to the chelation they should prescribe according to the levels of iron load found in the heart and liver by MR.</p