Statistical Modeling of Migration Attractiveness of the EU Member States

Identifying the relationship between the migration attractiveness of the European Union countries and their level of socio-economic development is investigated. An approach is proposed identify influences on migration socio-economic characteristics, by aggregating and reducing their diversity, and substantiating the cause-and-effect relationships of the studied phenomenon. A stable classification of countries scheme is developed according to the attractiveness of migration on aggregate factors, and then an econometric model of a binary choice using panel data for 2008-2010 was applying, quantifying the impact of aggregate designed factors on immigration and emigration

Методы Оценки Потенциала Воспроизводства Населения

The paper considers various approaches to the assessment of reasonable and reliable indicators that characterize the reproductive potential of the population embedded in the system of gender- and age-specific fertility and mortality rates. The authors demonstrate that it is impractical to use the total coefficients of natural population growth due to their dependence on population’s age-sex structure, which can significantly vary over time due to the movement of demographic waves. The authors evaluate the diverse influence of demographic waves on the total fertility rates, mortality rates, and natural movement of the population in Russia in 1990-2000 and 2001-2017. It is suggested to evaluate the reproductive potential of the population by its growth rate calculated only based on the natural movement coefficients for female population younger than 50 and its modification determined on the basis of such coefficients for the male and female population of all ages. The paper provides annual estimates of these indicators for the population of Russia in 1990-2017 and states the reasons for the discrepancies in their values. On the basis of these estimates, the authors identify trends in the variability of the reproductive potential of the population in Russia during the period under review and justify the approaches to determining the directions of socio-economic policy conducive to its increase.El artículo considera enfoques para la evaluación de indicadores razonables y confiables que caracterizan el potencial de reproducción de la población, integrados en el sistema de tasas de fertilidad y mortalidad por edad sexual. Se muestra que no es práctico utilizar los coeficientes generales de crecimiento de la población natural como indicadores debido a su dependencia de su estructura de edad y sexo, que puede variar significativamente con el tiempo (el movimiento de las ondas demográficas). Se estima la influencia diversa de las ondas demográficas en las tasas generales de natalidad, mortalidad y el movimiento natural de la población de Rusia en 1990-2000. y en los años 2001-2017 Se propuso evaluar el potencial de reproducción de la población por su tasa de crecimiento marginal, calculada solo por los coeficientes de movimiento natural de las mujeres menores de 50 años, y su modificación, determinada sobre la base de dichos coeficientes de hombres y mujeres de todas las edades. Se dan estimaciones anuales de estos indicadores para la población de Rusia en 1990–2017, se determinan las razones de las discrepancias en sus valores. Sobre la base de estas estimaciones, se identifican las tendencias en la variabilidad del potencial de reproducción de la población rusa en el período que se examina y se justifican los enfoques para determinar las orientaciones de la política socioeconómica conducente a su aumento.В статье рассмотрены подходы к оценке обоснованных и достоверных показателей, характеризующих сложившийся у населения потенциал его воспроизводства, заложенный в системе половозрастных коэффициентов рождаемости и смертности. Показано, что в качестве таких показателей нецелесообразно использовать общие коэффициенты естественного прироста населения вследствие их зависимости от его половозрастной структуры, которая может существенно меняться во времени (движение демографических волн). Оценено разноплановое влияние демографических волн на общие коэффициенты рождаемости, смертности и естественного движения населения России в 1990-2000 гг. и в 2001-2017 гг. Предложено оценивать потенциал воспроизводства населения по его предельному темпу роста, рассчитываемому только по коэффициентам естественного движения женщин моложе 50 лет, и его модификации, определяемой на основе таких коэффициентов мужчин и женщин всех возрастов. Приведены годовые оценки этих показателей для населения России в 1990-2017 гг., определены причины расхождений в их значениях. На основе этих оценок выявлены тенденции изменчивости потенциала воспроизводства населения России в рассматриваемом периоде и обоснованы подходы к определению направлений социально-экономической политики, способствующей его повышению

Models of assessment of the influence of insurance assets securitization on stability of mutual insurance societies

The article reviews approaches to assessing the effectiveness of the mechanism of insurance assets securitization used to enhance the financial stability of the mutual insurance society, determined by the level of probability of its default. The approaches are based on the methods of simulation modeling of the financial flows of the society formed taking into account the patterns of random payments, deterministic premiums, proceeds and securitization costs. Following the results of a series of simulation experiments, the peculiarities of the influence of securitization on stability of a MIS are identified, and recommendations for its use are justified. The estimates of the costs of structuring the transaction are obtained, based on which a certain minimum volumes of securitization are determined, at which its use is appropriate.peer-reviewe

Development and validation of a mathematics-number sense web-based test battery.

This study aimed to create and validate a web-based battery of tests, age appropriate for 16 year-olds, and designed to assess mathematical skills, general cognitive abilities and number sense. The first stage of the study involved the selection of 11 measures and their administration to a sample of 100 16 year-old students, either in pen and paper format, or on computers. Guided by reliability analyses conducted on the first phase's data, 6 of these tests were selected and implemented online. The new battery revealed to be a reliable tool of assessment showing good internal validity and reliability for all the measures

The nature of the association between number line and mathematical performance: An international twin study

Background: The number line task assesses the ability to estimatenumerical magnitudes. People vary greatly in this abilityand this variability has been previously associated with mathematical skills. However, the sources of individual differences in number line estimation and its association with mathematics are not fully understood. Aims: This large scale genetically sensitive studyuses a twin design to estimate the magnitude of the effects of genes and environments on: (1) individualvariation in number line estimation and (2) the co-variation of number line estimation with mathematics. Samples: We used over3,0008-16 years-old twins from US, Canada,UK, and Russia, and a sample of 1,456 8-18 years-old singleton Russian students. Methods: Twins were assessed on: (1)estimation of numerical magnitudes using a numberline task and (2) two mathematics components: fluency and problemsolving. Results: Results suggest that environments largelydrive individual differences in numberline estimation.Both genes and environments contribute to different extents to the number line estimationandmathematics correlation, depending on the sample and mathematics component. Conclusions: Taken together, the results suggest that in more heterogeneous school settings, environments may be more important in driving variation in number line estimation and its associationwith mathematics, whereas in more homogeneous school settings, genetic effects drive the covariation between number line estimationand mathematics. These results are discussed in light of development and educational settings

Predicting Academic Achievement with Cognitive Abilities: Cross-Sectional Study across School Education

The relationship between cognitive abilities and academic achievement across schooling from the first to the eleventh grade was analyzed. Information processing speed, visuospatial working memory, number sense, and fluid intelligence were considered predictors of general academic achievement, which was derived from grades in mathematics, language, and biology. This cross-sectional study involved 1560 pupils who were in grades 1–11 at general education schools and were aged from 6.8 to 19.1 years (50.4% were boys). Information processing speed, visuospatial working memory, and number sense were measured using the Choice Reaction Time, Corsi Block-Tapping, and Number Sense computerized tests, respectively. Fluid intelligence was measured using the paper-and-pencil version of the Standard Progressive Matrices test. Correlation analysis and structural equation modeling were carried out. It was shown that it is possible to describe the structure of the relationship between cognitive abilities and academic achievement for all levels of schooling with a single model. In this model, information processing speed is the key predictor of fluid intelligence, working memory, and number sense, which in turn contribute to individual differences in academic success. Additionally, the specificity of the relationship between individual indicators of cognitive abilities and academic achievement at each level of schooling was revealed

A measurement instrument of cognitive economics in the BRICS countries

The paper envisages the key features of the cognitive economics in the BRICS countries. Due to their substantial impact on the development of the world economics, it is necessary to investigate the cognitive processes in these countries. The distinctive feature of the current world economy is the quality transformation of its technological basis that forms global challenges for the future world economic development. The essence of this transformation is to strengthen cognitive processes: emergence of robots, commercial spread of artificial intelligence technologies, changes in labor skills, etc. These quality changes lead to the formation of a new stage of economics — cognitive economics. As a sphere of scientific research, cognitive economics includes three main domains: intellectual systems, knowledge management, and cognitive technologies. Despite the fact that all these phenomena are present in the economy of each country there is no suitable instrument that can measure cognitive processes at the country level. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate a measurement tool for evaluating the level of cognitivization in the BRICS countries. Taking into account this goal, the authors developed an aggregated index based on a generalized principal component analysis. As a result, the main parameters that make the greatest contribution to the cognitive index were identified. Comparison at the country level shows that the first sub-index has more weight connected with the human capital of the countries. As for R&D and ICT infrastructure — the second and third sub-indices — the situation in the BRICS countries is almost the same. The obvious conclusions of the monitoring are that cognitive economics in the BRICS countries has a chance to intensify their economic development and slash the backlog with the developed countries

Children's perception of parental attitudes: Russia-Kyrgyzstan cross-cultural study

The article presents the results of a cross-cultural analysis of the perception of parental attitude by children and adolescents. We focused on the indicators of maternal and paternal attitude such as Acceptance, Positive Involvement, Rejection and Hostile Detachment. The Russian sample includes 501 primary school students aged 6.8 to 11.7 years (49.9% boys) and 438 adolescents aged 10.8 to 16.8 years (47.1% boys). The Kyrgyz sample includes 510 primary school students aged from 6.6 to 11.8 years (48.5% boys) and 513 adolescents aged 10.3 to 16.8 years (46.3% boys). Regardless of the macro environment, schoolchildren perceive the attitude of both parents to a greater extent as emotionally accepting and to a lesser extent as rejecting. At the same time, it is shown that cross-cultural differences in the perception of maternal attitude are manifested only in younger schoolchildren: Kyrgyz children assess maternal attitude as more emotionally accepting with positive involvement and less rejecting. Cross-cultural differences in the perception of paternal attitudes are manifested both in younger schoolchildren and in adolescents: Kyrgyz children assess paternal attitude more positively than Russian peers. The results are interpreted in the context of specific socio-economic conditions

Technology Factors of Improving the Performance Properties of Anticorrosive Protective Coatings for Safety Enhancement of Coal Enterprises

Corrosion, aging, wear of the basic production assets of the of the Kuznetsk Basin coal industry enterprises lead to huge losses of natural resources and material supplies; labor costs being increased. Most failures, breakdowns, malfunctions at industrial facilities, except for cases of misuse, are caused by the above mentioned factors. Therefore, the primary task is to develop methods for protecting equipment from corrosion. In this paper, the measures to increase the longevity of polymer-silicate mastic protective coatings by studying and optimizing the group of internal properties of polymer-silicates that determine the properties of the coating as a whole are proposed