Impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh.

INTRODUCTION: Diarrheal disease is a leading cause of child mortality globally, and rotavirus is responsible for more than a third of those deaths. Despite substantial decreases, the number of rotavirus deaths in children under five was 215,000 per year in 2013. Of these deaths, approximately 41% occurred in Asia and 3% of those in Bangladesh. While Bangladesh has yet to introduce rotavirus vaccination, the country applied for Gavi support and plans to introduce it in 2018. This analysis evaluates the impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh and provides estimates of the costs of the vaccination program to help inform decision-makers and international partners. METHODS: This analysis used Pan American Health Organization's TRIVAC model (version 2.0) to examine nationwide introduction of two-dose rotavirus vaccination in 2017, compared to no vaccination. Three mortality scenarios (low, high, and midpoint) were assessed. Benefits and costs were examined from the societal perspective over ten successive birth cohorts with a 3% discount rate. Model inputs were locally acquired and complemented by internationally validated estimates. RESULTS: Over ten years, rotavirus vaccination would prevent 4000 deaths, nearly 500,000 hospitalizations and 3 million outpatient visits in the base scenario. With a Gavi subsidy, cost/disability adjusted life year (DALY) ratios ranged from $58/DALY to$142/DALY averted. Without a Gavi subsidy and a vaccine price of $2.19 per dose, cost/DALY ratios ranged from$615/DALY to $1514/DALY averted. CONCLUSION: The discounted cost per DALY averted was less than the GDP per capita for nearly all scenarios considered, indicating that a routine rotavirus vaccination program is highly likely to be cost-effective. Even in a low mortality setting with no Gavi subsidy, rotavirus vaccination would be cost-effective. These estimates exclude the herd immunity benefits of vaccination, so represent a conservative estimate of the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh

Eff ect of pentavalent rotavirus vaccine introduction on hospital admissions for diarrhoea and rotavirus in children in Rwanda: a time-series analysis

Background In May, 2012, Rwanda became the fi rst low-income African country to introduce pentavalent rotavirus vaccine into its routine national immunisation programme. Although the potential health benefi ts of rotavirus vaccination are huge in low-income African countries that account for more than half the global deaths from rotavirus, concerns remain about the performance of oral rotavirus vaccines in these challenging settings. Methods We conducted a time-series analysis to examine trends in admissions to hospital for non-bloody diarrhoea in children younger than 5 years in Rwanda between Jan 1, 2009, and Dec 31, 2014, using monthly discharge data from the Health Management Information System. Additionally, we reviewed the registries in the paediatric wards at six hospitals from 2009 to 2014 and abstracted the number of total admissions and admissions for diarrhoea in children younger than 5 years by admission month and age group. We studied trends in admissions specifi c to rotavirus at one hospital that had undertaken active rotavirus surveillance from 2011 to 2014. We assessed changes in rotavirus epidemiology by use of data from eight active surveillance hospitals. Findings Compared with the 2009–11 prevaccine baseline, hospital admissions for non-bloody diarrhoea captured by the Health Management Information System fell by 17–29% from a pre-vaccine median of 4051 to 2881 in 2013 and 3371 in 2014, admissions for acute gastroenteritis captured in paediatric ward registries decreased by 48–49%, and admissions specifi c to rotavirus captured by active surveillance fell by 61–70%. The greatest eff ect was recorded in children age-eligible to be vaccinated, but we noted a decrease in the proportion of children with diarrhoea testing positive for rotavirus in almost every age group. Interpretation The number of admissions to hospital for diarrhoea and rotavirus in Rwanda fell substantially after rotavirus vaccine implementation, including among older children age-ineligible for vaccination, suggesting indirect protection through reduced transmission of rotavirus. These data highlight the benefi ts of routine vaccination against rotavirus in low-income settings

A Preliminary Assessment of Rotavirus Vaccine Effectiveness in Zambia

BACKGROUND: Diarrhea is the third leading cause of child death in Zambia. Up to one-third of diarrhea cases resulting in hospitalization and/or death are caused by vaccine-preventable rotavirus. In January 2012, Zambia initiated a pilot introduction of the Rotarix live, oral rotavirus vaccine in all public health facilities in Lusaka Province. METHODS: Between July 2012 and October 2013, we conducted a case-control study at 6 public sector sites to estimate rotavirus vaccine effectiveness (VE) in age-eligible children presenting with diarrhea. We computed the odds of having received at least 1 dose of Rotarix among children whose stool was positive for rotavirus antigen (cases) and children whose stool was negative (controls). We adjusted the resulting odds ratio (OR) for patient age, calendar month of presentation, and clinical site, and expressed VE as (1 - adjusted OR) × 100. RESULTS: A total of 91 rotavirus-positive cases and 298 rotavirus-negative controls who had under-5 card-confirmed vaccination status and were ≥6 months of age were included in the case-control analysis. Among rotavirus-positive children who were age-eligible to be vaccinated, 20% were hospitalized. Against rotavirus diarrhea of all severity, the adjusted 2-dose VE was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], -30% to 58%) among children ≥6 months of age. VE against hospitalized children ≥6 months of age was 56% (95% CI, -34% to 86%). CONCLUSIONS: We observed a higher point estimate for VE against increased severity of illness compared with milder disease, but were not powered to detect a low level of VE against milder disease

Significant Correlation Between the Infant Gut Microbiome and Rotavirus Vaccine Response in Rural Ghana

Background. Rotavirus (RV) is the leading cause of diarrhea-related death in children worldwide and 95% of RV-associated deaths occur in Africa and Asia where RV vaccines (RVVs) have lower efficacy. We hypothesize that differences in intestinal microbiome composition correlate with the decreased RVV efficacy observed in poor settings. Methods. We conducted a nested, case-control study comparing prevaccination, fecal microbiome compositions between 6week old, matched RVV responders and nonresponders in rural Ghana. These infants' microbiomes were then compared with 154 age-matched, healthy Dutch infants' microbiomes, assumed to be RVV responders. Fecal microbiome analysis was performed in all groups using the Human Intestinal Tract Chip. Results. We analyzed findings in 78 Ghanaian infants, including 39 RVV responder and nonresponder pairs. The overall microbiome composition was significantly different between RVV responders and nonresponders (FDR, 0.12), and Ghanaian responders were more similar to Dutch infants than nonresponders (P =.002). RVV response correlated with an increased abundance of Streptococcus bovis and a decreased abundance of the Bacteroidetes phylum in comparisons between both Ghanaian RVV responders and nonresponders (FDR, 0.008 vs 0.003) and Dutch infants and Ghanaian nonresponders (FDR, 0.002 vs 0.009). Conclusions. The intestinal microbiome composition correlates significantly with RVV immunogenicity and may contribute to the diminished RVV immunogenicity observed in developing countries.Peer reviewe

Effectiveness of a monovalent rotavirus vaccine in infants in Malawi after programmatic roll-out: an observational and case-control study

Background Rotavirus is the main cause of severe acute gastroenteritis in children in Africa. Monovalent human rotavirus vaccine (RV1) was added into Malawi's infant immunisation schedule on Oct 29, 2012. We aimed to assess the impact and effectiveness of RV1 on rotavirus gastroenteritis in the 2 years after introduction. Methods From Jan 1, 2012, to June 30, 2014, we recruited children younger than 5 years who were admitted into Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi, with acute gastroenteritis. We assessed stool samples from these children for presence of rotavirus with use of ELISA and we genotyped rotaviruses with use of RT-PCR. We compared rotavirus detection rates in stool samples and incidence of hospital admittance for rotavirus in children from Jan 1 to June 30, in the year before vaccination (2012) with the same months in the 2 years after vaccination was introduced (2013 and 2014). In the case-control portion of our study, we recruited eligible rotavirus-positive children from the surveillance platform and calculated vaccine effectiveness (one minus the odds ratio of vaccination) by comparing infants with rotavirus gastroenteritis with infants who tested negative for rotavirus, and with community age-matched and neighbourhood-matched controls. Findings We enrolled 1431 children, from whom we obtained 1417 stool samples (99%). We detected rotavirus in 79 of 157 infants (50%) before the vaccine, compared with 57 of 219 (40%) and 52 of 170 (31%) in successive calendar years after vaccine introduction (p=0·0002). In the first half of 2012, incidence of rotavirus hospital admission was 269 per 100 000 infants compared with 284 in the same months of 2013 (rise of 5·8%, 95% CI −23·1 to 45·4; p=0·73) and 153 in these months in 2014 (a reduction from the prevaccine period of 43·2%, 18·0–60·7; p=0·003). We recruited 118 vaccine-eligible rotavirus cases (median age 8·9 months; IQR 6·6–11·1), 317 rotavirus-test-negative controls (9·4 months; 6·9–11·9), and 380 community controls (8·8 months; 6·5–11·1). Vaccine effectiveness for two doses of RV1 in rotavirus-negative individuals was 64% (95% CI 24–83) and community controls was 63% (23–83). The point estimate of effectiveness was higher against genotype G1 than against G2 and G12. Interpretation Routine use of RV1 reduced hospital admissions for several genotypes of rotavirus in children younger than 5 years, especially in infants younger than 1 year. Our data support introduction of rotavirus vaccination at the WHO recommended schedule, with continuing surveillance in high-mortality countries

Update on the global epidemiology of intussusception: a systematic review of incidence rates, age distributions and case-fatality ratios among children aged <5 years, before the introduction of rotavirus vaccination.

BACKGROUND: In some countries that have introduced oral rotavirus vaccines, a small but elevated risk of intussusception-a rare bowel disorder-has been reported. Updated estimates on the global epidemiology of intussusception are needed to help predict the potential number of intussusception cases that could be caused by the vaccine in different settings. METHODS: We estimated incidence rates, age distributions and case-fatality ratios (CFRs) for intussusception hospital admissions among children aged <5 years, before the introduction of rotavirus vaccines. We included all articles identified in a systematic review between January 2002 and January 2018, and contacted authors for more granular unpublished data on age distributions. RESULTS: We identified 128 articles containing 227 country datasets (61 age distributions, 71 incidence rates and 95 CFRs). The median age of intussusception ranged from 29 weeks in Africa (83% of cases in the first year of life) to 70 weeks in the Western Pacific region (35% of cases in the first year of life). The median (range) annual incidence of intussusception hospital admissions per 100 000 aged <1 year ranged from 34 (13-56) in Africa to 90 (9-380) in the Western Pacific region. We found extreme differences between the CFRs in Africa (1 death in every 10 hospital admissions) and the rest of the world (fewer than 1 death in every 100-2000 hospital admissions). CONCLUSION: Intussusception epidemiology varies by country and region. Understanding and recognizing these differences will be important when assessing the potential number of intussusception cases associated with rotavirus vaccines

Cost-Effectiveness of Monovalent Rotavirus Vaccination of Infants in Malawi: A Postintroduction Analysis Using Individual Patient-Level Costing Data.

Background. Rotavirus vaccination reduces childhood hospitalization in Africa, but cost-effectiveness has not been determined using real-world effectiveness and costing data. We sought to determine monovalent rotavirus vaccine cost-effectiveness in Malawi, one of Africa's poorest countries and the first Gavi-eligible country to report disease reduction following introduction in 2012. Methods. This was a prospective cohort study of children with acute gastroenteritis at a rural primary health center, a rural first referral–level hospital and an urban regional referral hospital in Malawi. For each participant we itemized household costs of illness and direct medical expenditures incurred. We also collected Ministry of Health vaccine implementation costs. Using a standard tool (TRIVAC), we derived cost-effectiveness. Results. Between 1 January 2013 and 21 November 2014, we recruited 530 children aged <5 years with gastroenteritis. Costs did not differ by rotavirus test result, but were significantly higher for admitted children and those with increased severity on Vesikari scale. Adding rotavirus vaccine to the national schedule costs Malawi $0.42 per dose in system costs. Vaccine copayment is an additional$0.20. Over 20 years, the vaccine program will avert 1 026 000 cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis, 78 000 inpatient admissions, 4300 deaths, and 136 000 disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs). For this year's birth cohort, it will avert 54 000 cases of rotavirus and 281 deaths in children aged <5 years. The program will cost $10.5 million and save$8.0 million in averted healthcare costs. Societal cost per DALY averted was $10, and the cost per rotavirus case averted was$1. Conclusions. Gastroenteritis causes substantial economic burden to Malawi. The rotavirus vaccine program is highly cost-effective. Together with the demonstrated impact of rotavirus vaccine in reducing population hospitalization burden, its cost-effectiveness makes a strong argument for widespread utilization in other low-income, high-burden settings

Population Impact and Effectiveness of Monovalent Rotavirus Vaccination in Urban Malawian Children 3 Years After Vaccine Introduction: Ecological and Case-Control Analyses.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus vaccines have been introduced in many low-income African countries including Malawi in 2012. Despite early evidence of vaccine impact, determining persistence of protection beyond infancy, the utility of the vaccine against specific rotavirus genotypes, and effectiveness in vulnerable subgroups is important. METHODS: We compared rotavirus prevalence in diarrheal stool and hospitalization incidence before and following rotavirus vaccine introduction in Malawi. Using case-control analysis, we derived vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the second year of life and for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-exposed and stunted children. RESULTS: Rotavirus prevalence declined concurrent with increasing vaccine coverage, and in 2015 was 24% compared with prevaccine mean baseline in 1997-2011 of 32%. Since vaccine introduction, population rotavirus hospitalization incidence declined in infants by 54.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 32.8-68.8), but did not fall in older children. Comparing 241 rotavirus cases with 692 test-negative controls, VE was 70.6% (95% CI, 33.6%-87.0%) and 31.7% (95% CI, -140.6% to 80.6%) in the first and second year of life, respectively, whereas mean age of rotavirus cases increased from 9.3 to 11.8 months. Despite higher VE against G1P[8] than against other genotypes, no resurgence of nonvaccine genotypes has occurred. VE did not differ significantly by nutritional status (78.1% [95% CI, 5.6%-94.9%] in 257 well-nourished and 27.8% [95% CI, -99.5% to 73.9%] in 205 stunted children;P= .12), or by HIV exposure (60.5% [95% CI, 13.3%-82.0%] in 745 HIV-unexposed and 42.2% [95% CI, -106.9% to 83.8%] in 174 exposed children;P= .91). CONCLUSIONS: Rotavirus vaccination in Malawi has resulted in reductions in disease burden in infants <12 months, but not in older children. Despite differences in genotype-specific VE, no genotype has emerged to suggest vaccine escape. VE was not demonstrably affected by HIV exposure or stunting

Post-marketing surveillance of intussusception after Rotarix administration in Afghanistan, 2018-2022.

BACKGROUND: In January 2018, Afghanistan introduced the monovalent oral rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix) nationwide, administered as a 2-dose series at six and ten weeks of age. We describe characteristics of intussusception cases and assess potential intussusception risk associated with Rotarix vaccination in Afghan infants. METHODS: Multi-center prospective active hospital-based surveillance for intussusception was conducted from May 2018 to March 2022 in four sentinel sites in Afghanistan. We applied the Brighton Level 1 criteria for intussusception and verified vaccination status by reviewing vaccine cards. We used the self-controlled case series (SCCS) methodology to compare intussusception incidence in the 1 to 21 days after each dose of Rotarix vaccination against non-risk periods. RESULTS: A total of 468 intussusception cases were identified in infants under 12 months, with 264 cases aged between 28 and 245 days having confirmed vaccination status contributing to the SCCS analysis. Most case-patients (98 %) required surgery for treatment, and over half (59 %) of those who underwent surgery required intestinal resection. Nineteen (7 %) case-patients died. Eighty-six percent of case-patients received the first dose of Rotarix, and 69 % received the second dose before intussusception symptom onset. There was no increased risk of intussusception in the 1-7 days (relative incidence: 0.9, 95 % CI: 0.1, 7.5), 8-21 days (1.3, 95 % CI: 0.4, 4.2), or 1-21 days (1.1, 95 % CI: 0.4, 3.4) following receipt of the first dose or in the 1-7 days (0.2, 95 % CI: 0.3, 1.8), 8-21 days (0.7, 95 % CI: 0.3, 1.5), or 1-21 days (0.6, 95 % CI: 0.3, 1.2) following the second dose. CONCLUSION: Rotarix vaccination was not associated with an increased intussusception risk, supporting its continued use in Afghanistan's immunization program. However, there was a high level of death and resection due to intussusception among Afghan infants