A multiscale approach for precipitation verification applied to the FORALPS case studies

International audienceMultiscale methods, such as the power spectrum, are suitable diagnostic tools for studying the second order statistics of a gridded field. For instance, in the case of Numerical Weather Prediction models, a drop in the power spectrum for a given scale indicates the inability of the model to reproduce the variance of the phenomenon below the correspondent spatial scale. Hence, these statistics provide an insight into the real resolution of a gridded field and must be accurately known for interpolation and downscaling purposes. In this work, belonging to the EU INTERREG IIIB Alpine Space FORALPS project, the power spectra of the precipitation fields for two intense rain events, which occurred over the north-eastern alpine region, have been studied in detail. A drop in the power spectrum at the shortest scales (about 30 km) has been found, as well as a strong matching between the precipitation spectrum and the spectrum of the orography. Furthermore, it has also been shown how the spectra help understand the behavior of the skill scores traditionally used in Quantitative Precipitation Forecast verification, as these are sensitive to the amount of small scale detail present in the fields

Two-year long safety and efficacy of deferasirox film-coated tablets in patients with thalassemia or lower/intermediate risk MDS: phase 3 results from a subset of patients previously treated with deferasirox in the ECLIPSE study

Background: Despite the proven benefits of iron chelation therapy (ICT) in the management of chronic iron overload and related complications, compliance to long-term ICT is challenging. Results from the ECLIPSE study, an open-label, randomized, multicenter, 2-arm, phase 2 study evaluated the safety of deferasirox dispersible tablet and film-coated tablet (FCT) formulations in patients with transfusion-dependent thalassemia (TDT) or very low, low, or intermediate risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) treated over 24 weeks. Methods: The aim of the current study (a 2-year, open-label, multicenter, single-arm, phase 3 study) is to evaluate the long-term safety and efficacy of deferasirox FCT in a subset of patients with TDT or lower/intermediate-risk MDS treated for 2 years after the completion of 24 weeks of treatment with deferasirox in the ECLIPSE phase 2 study. Results: Of 53 patients enrolled, 34 (64.2%) completed treatment and study. Adverse events (AEs) reported in most patients (similar to 70%) were of mild to moderate severity. Headache and diarrhea were the most frequently (> 25%) reported AEs. None of the serious AEs (including 1 death) were considered treatment related. No new safety signal was identified, and long-term safety of deferasirox FCT was consistent with the known safety profile of deferasirox. No major concerns associated with gastrointestinal tolerability, renal safety, or hematological abnormalities (thrombocytopenia/neutropenia) were reported during the 2 years. Patients receiving deferasirox FCT had a treatment compliance (by pill count) of similar to 90% and persistence (continuous use for >= 30 days) of > 95%. Reduction in serum ferritin level was almost consistent starting from week 2 across all post-baseline time points (relative reduction: month 6, 19%; month 12, 29%). Conclusions: The results from this 2-year interventional study suggest that the recommended dosing of deferasirox FCT, with better tolerability, palatability, and compliance, offers a favorable option of ICT for long-term management of iron overload and associated complications in TDT

Unsatisfying forecast of a Mediterranean cyclone: a verification study employing state-of-the-art techniques

International audienceOn 16?17 November 2000, a relatively intense precipitation event on the north-western Italy was heavily underestimated, mainly due to shifting error, by three operational 10-km limited area models (LAMs) which differ about basic equations, domain size, and parameterisation schemes. The scope of the work is to investigate possible common error-sources independent from the single model, in particular the effect of initialisation. Thus, the complex evolution over the western Mediterranean Sea of the cyclone responsible for the event was investigated. Several objective and subjective verification techniques have been employed to check one of the LAMs' forecast against the available observations (precipitation from rain gauge and retrieved from ground-based radar, and satellite-retrieved atmospheric humidity patterns). Despite a clear statement is not achieved, results indicate that high sensitivity to the initial conditions, and the inadequacy of the observational network on the southern Mediterranean area, can play a major role in producing the forecast shifting error on the target area

POSEIDON: An integrated system for analysis and forecast of hydrological, meteorological and surface marine fields in the Mediterranean area

The Mediterranean area is characterized by relevant hydrological, meteorological and marine processes developing at horizontal space-scales of the order of 1–100 km. In the recent past, several international programs have been addressed (ALPEX, POEM, MAP, etc.)to “resolving” the dynamics of such motions. Other projects (INTERREG-Flooding, MEDEX, etc.)are at present being developed with special emphasis on catastrophic events with major impact on human society that are, quite often, characterized in their manifestation by processes with the above-mentioned scales of motion. In the dynamical evolution of such events, however, equally important is the dynamics of interaction of the local (and sometimes very damaging)pro cesses with others developing at larger scales of motion. In fact, some of the most catastrophic events in the history of Mediterranean countries are associated with dynamical processes covering all the range of space-time scales from planetary to local. The Prevision Operational System for the mEditerranean basIn and the Defence of the lagOon of veNice (POSEIDON)is an integrated system for the analysis and forecast of hydrological, meteorological, oceanic fields specifically designed and set up in order to bridge the gap between global and local scales of motion, by modeling explicitly the above referred to dynamical processes in the range of scales from Mediterranean to local. The core of POSEIDON consists of a “cascade” of numerical models that, starting from global scale numerical analysisforecast, goes all the way to very local phenomena, like tidal propagation in Venice Lagoon. The large computational load imposed by such operational design requires necessarily parallel computing technology: the first model in the cascade is a parallelised version of BOlogna Limited Area Model (BOLAM)running on a Quadrics 128 processors computer (also known as QBOLAM). POSEIDON, developed in the context of a co-operation between the Italian Agency for New technologies, Energy and Environment (Ente per le Nuove tecnologie, l’Energia e l’Ambiente, ENEA)and the Italian Agency for Environmental Protection and Technical Services (Agenzia per la Protezione dell’Ambiente e per i Servizi Tecnici, APAT), has become operational in 2000 and we are presently in the condition of drawing some preliminary conclusions about its performance. In the paper we describe the scientific concepts that were at the basis of the original planning, the structure of the system, its operational cycle and some preliminary scientific and technical evaluations after two years of experimentation

Development of a concept and basis for the DEMO diagnostic and control system

An initial concept for the plasma diagnostic and control (D&C) system has been developed as part of European studies towards the development of a demonstration tokamak fusion reactor (DEMO). The main objective is to develop a feasible, integrated concept design of the DEMO D&C system that can provide reliable plasma control and high performance (electricity output) over extended periods of operation. While the fusion power is maximized when operating near to the operational limits of the tokamak, the reliability of operation typically improves when choosing parameters significantly distant from these limits. In addition to these conflicting requirements, the D&C development has to cope with strong adverse effects acting on all in vessel components on DEMO (harsh neutron environment, particle fluxes, temperatures, electromagnetic forces, etc.). Moreover, space allocation and plasma access are constrained by the needs for first wall integrity and optimization of tritium breeding. Taking into account these boundary conditions, the main DEMO plasma control issues have been formulated, and a list of diagnostic systems and channels needed for plasma control has been developed, which were selected for their robustness and the required coverage of control issues. For a validation and refinement of this concept, simulation tools are being refined and applied for equilibrium, kinetic and mode control studies

Ventilatory associated barotrauma in COVID-19 patients: A multicenter observational case control study (COVI-MIX-study)

Background: The risk of barotrauma associated with different types of ventilatory support is unclear in COVID-19 patients. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the different respiratory support strategies on barotrauma occurrence; we also sought to determine the frequency of barotrauma and the clinical characteristics of the patients who experienced this complication. Methods: This multicentre retrospective case-control study from 1 March 2020 to 28 February 2021 included COVID-19 patients who experienced barotrauma during hospital stay. They were matched with controls in a 1:1 ratio for the same admission period in the same ward of treatment. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression (OR) were performed to explore which factors were associated with barotrauma and in-hospital death. Results: We included 200 cases and 200 controls. Invasive mechanical ventilation was used in 39.3% of patients in the barotrauma group, and in 20.1% of controls (p<0.001). Receiving non-invasive ventilation (C-PAP/PSV) instead of conventional oxygen therapy (COT) increased the risk of barotrauma (OR 5.04, 95% CI 2.30 - 11.08, p<0.001), similarly for invasive mechanical ventilation (OR 6.24, 95% CI 2.86-13.60, p<0.001). High Flow Nasal Oxygen (HFNO), compared with COT, did not significantly increase the risk of barotrauma. Barotrauma frequency occurred in 1.00% [95% CI 0.88-1.16] of patients; these were older (p=0.022) and more frequently immunosuppressed (p=0.013). Barotrauma was shown to be an independent risk for death (OR 5.32, 95% CI 2.82-10.03, p<0.001). Conclusions: C-PAP/PSV compared with COT or HFNO increased the risk of barotrauma; otherwise HFNO did not. Barotrauma was recorded in 1.00% of patients, affecting mainly patients with more severe COVID-19 disease. Barotrauma was independently associated with mortality. Trial registration: this case-control study was prospectively registered in clinicaltrial.gov as NCT04897152 (on 21 May 2021)