Drinking in transition: trends in alcohol consumption in Russia 1994-2004

BACKGROUND: Heavy alcohol consumption is widespread in Russia, but studying changes in drinking during the transition from Communism has been hampered previously by the lack of frequent data. This paper uses 1-2 yearly panel data, comparing consumption trends with the rapid concurrent changes in economic variables (notably around the "Rouble crisis", shortly preceding the 1998 survey round), and mortality. METHODS: Data were from 9 rounds (1994-2004) of the 38-centre Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. Respondents aged over 18 were included (>7,000 per round). Trends were measured in alcohol frequency, quantity per occasion (by beverage type) and 2 measures of potentially hazardous consumption: (i) frequent, heavy spirit drinking (≥80 g per occasion of vodka or samogon and >weekly) (ii) consuming samogon (cheap home-distilled spirit). Trends in consumption, mean household income and national mortality rates (in the same and subsequent 2 years) were compared. Finally, in a subsample of individual male respondents present in both the 1996 and 1998 rounds (before and after the financial crash), determinants of changes in harmful consumption were studied using logistic regression. RESULTS: Frequent, heavy spirit drinking (>80 g each time, ≥weekly) was widespread amongst men (12-17%) throughout, especially in the middle aged and less educated; with the exception of a significant, temporary drop to 10% in 1998. From 1996-2000, samogon drinking more than doubled, from 6% to 16% of males; despite a decline, levels were significantly higher in 2004 than 1996 in both sexes. Amongst women, frequent heavy spirit drinking rose non-significantly to more than 1% during the study. Heavy frequent male drinking and mortality in the same year were correlated in lower educated males, but not in women. Individual logistic regression in a male subsample showed that between 1996 and1998, those who lost their employment were more likely to cease frequent, heavy drinking; however, men who commenced drinking samogon in 1998 were more likely to be rural residents, materially poor, very heavy drinkers or pessimistic about their finances. These changes were unexplained by losses to follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Sudden economic decline in late 1990s Russia was associated with a sharp, temporary fall in heavy drinking, and a gradual and persistent increase in home distilled spirit consumption, with the latter more common amongst disadvantaged groups. The correlation between heavy drinking and national mortality in lower educated men is interesting, but the timing of RLMS surveys late in the calendar year, and the absence of any correlation between drinking and the subsequent year's mortality, makes these data hard to interpret. Potential study limitations include difficulty in measuring multiple beverages consumed per occasion, and not specifically recording "surrogate" (non-beverage) alcohols

50 Jahre Europarat. Der Weg nach einem Europa ohne Trennungslinien = 50 Years of the Council of Europe. The Path toward Europe without Lines of Separation. ZEI Discussion Papers: 1999, C 50

[From the Introduction]. 1. Das Grundkonzept der europäischen Zusammenarbeit in Frieden und Freiheit "Nie wieder" hieß die Losung nach den Schrecken des Zweiten Weltkrieges und den Greueltaten totalitärer Machtsysteme. Der absolute Schutz der Würde des Menschen und die Garantie seiner politischen Freiheiten sollten zum allgemeinen Maßstab werden. In seiner Rede an der Universität Zürich im Jahre 1946 hatte Winston Churchill dazu aufgerufen, einen Raum des Friedens, der Freiheit und der Sicherheit für die Gesamtheit der europäischen Völkerfamilie zu schaffen. Die Bildung eines Europarates könnte der erste Schritt in diese Richtung sein. Aber Churchill war sich der damaligen politischen Realitäten bewußt und schränkte ein, daß wahrscheinlich nicht alle Staaten sofort einem solchen Rat beitreten könnten. Nach den Forderungen des Haager Kongresses 1948, die Politik der Einigung Europas zu beginnen, kam es am 5. Mai 1949 in London zur Unterzeichnung des Statuts des Europarates durch zehn europäische Regierungen. Dies war ein ganz entscheidender politischer Akt für die weitere Entwicklung des europäischen Einigungsprozeßes. Ob es sich damals um einen Sieg der Funktionalisten über die Föderalisten, oder der Minimalisten über die Maximalisten gehandelt hat, erscheint aus heutiger Sicht zweitrangig. Das entscheidende war der politische Auftrag, den der Europarat mit auf den Weg bekommen hatte

Taxes and bribes: assessing the extraction burden in orderly and disorderly societies

Countries with a low GDP per capita generally have a much lower fiscal quota than OECD countries, but many other factors push up the transaction costs in poor economies. High-tax societies provide more security, predictability and organizational discipline. The absence of such conditions is a powerful breeding-ground for corruption. If fiscal payments and bribes are added up to arrive at a composite measure of the extraction burden in different countries, we might find that the costs of doing business do not diverge so much in various parts of the world.

Time horizons in budgeting

Public policy-makers operate with all measures of time horizon. They make short-term decisions as well as investments intended to benefit several generations. Though popular myth and public choice theory concur that politicians have their eyes fixed on nothing but the next election, there is a great deal of evidence to the contrary. As a rule there is a blend of time-frames and perspectives in the same actor. Attention leaps back and forth between the proximate and the distant. In their time orientation, elected officials share the ambivalence and volatility of their electorates. “A week is a long time in politics”, Harold Wilson once famously claimed when accused of inconsistency...