Using microearthquakes to track repeated magma intrusions beneath the Eyjafjallajökull stratovolcano, Iceland

We have mapped microearthquakes caused by magma migration preceding and during the flank and summit eruptions in March–May 2010 of Eyjafjallajökull stratovolcano in Iceland using a Coalescence Microseismic Mapping technique. Spatial and temporal clustering of >5,000 microearthquakes under the eastern flank of the volcano illuminates several northeast–southwest striking sub-vertical dikes at 2–6 km b.s.l., emplaced before the Fimmvörðuháls flank eruption in March. This intense precursory seismicity had a lateral extent of ∼6 km east-west and ∼3 km north-south. A sequence of 386 microearthquakes during the summit eruption, refined by double-difference relative relocation, defines a sub-linear trend inclined ∼5–10° from vertical extending from the upper mantle at ∼30 km depth to the summit crater. This sequence includes two major clusters at ∼19 km and ∼24 km b.s.l., each containing >100 earthquakes. All microearthquakes display characteristics of brittle fracture, with several subsets of events exhibiting closely similar waveforms within clusters. This suggests similar, repetitive source processes. The deeper clusters may be caused by fracturing solidified magma plugs that form constrictions in an otherwise aseismic melt conduit. Or they may occur at exit points from melt pockets, in which case they indicate positions of magma storage at depth. The seismicity deeper than 10 km only starts three weeks after the onset of the summit eruption, after which the largest clusters occur at progressively greater depths. This temporal pattern may result from pressure release at shallow levels in the magmatic plumbing system progressively feeding down to mobilize deeper melt pockets

Seismogenic magma intrusion before the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano, Iceland

We present relatively relocated earthquake hypocentres for >1000 microearthquakes (ML < 3) that occurred during the 2 weeks immediately prior to the 2010 March 20 fissure eruption at Fimmvörðuháls on the flank of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. Our hypocentre locations lie predominantly in horizontally separated clusters spread over an area of 10 km2 and approximately 4 km below sea level (5 km below the surface). Seismic activity in the final 4 d preceding the eruption extended to shallower levels <2 km below sea level and propagated to the surface at the Fimmvörðuháls eruption site on the day the eruption started. We demonstrate using synthetic data that the observed apparent ∼1 km vertical elongation of seismic clusters is predominantly an artefact caused by only small errors (0.01–0.02 s) in arrival time data. Where the signal-to-noise ratio was sufficiently good to make subsample arrival time picks by cross-correlation of both P- and S-wave arrivals, the mean depth of 103 events in an individual cluster were constrained to 3.84 ± 0.06 km. Epicentral locations are significantly less vulnerable to arrival time errors than are depths for the seismic monitoring network we used. Within clusters of typically 100 recorded earthquakes, most of the arrivals exhibit similar waveforms and identical patterns of P-wave first-motion polarities across the entire monitoring network. The clusters of similar events comprise repetitive sources in the same location with the same orientations of failure, probably on the same rupture plane. The epicentral clustering and similarity of source mechanisms suggest that much of the seismicity was generated at approximately static constrictions to magma flow in an inflating sill complex. These constrictions may act as a form of valve in the country rock, which ruptures when the melt pressure exceeds a critical level, then reseals after a pulse of melt has passed through. This would generate recurring similar source mechanisms on the same weak fault plane as the connection between segments of the sill system is repeatedly refractured in the same location. We infer that the magmatic intrusion causing most of the seismicity was likely to be a laterally inflating complex of sills at about 4 km depth, with seismogenic pinch-points occurring between aseismic compartments of the sills, or between adjacent magma lobes as they inflated. During the final 4 d preceding the eruption onset between 22:30 and 23:30 UTC on 2010 March 20, the seismicity suggests that melt progressed upwards to a depth of ∼2 km. This seismicity was probably caused by fracturing of the country rock at the margins of the propagating dyke. Subsequently, on the morning of the eruption a dyke propagated eastward from the region of precursory seismic activity to the Fimmvörðuháls eruption site

Crustal-scale degassing due to magma system destabilization and magma-gas decoupling at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Activity since 1995 at Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat has alternated between andesite lava extrusion and quiescence, which are well correlated with seismicity and ground deformation cycles. Large variations in SO₂ flux do not correlate with these alternations, but high and low HCl/SO₂ characterize lava dome extrusion and quiescent periods respectively. Since lava extrusion ceased (February 2010) steady SO₂ emissions have continued at an average rate of 374 tonnes/day (± 140 t/d), and incandescent fumaroles (temperatures up to 610°C) on the dome have not changed position or cooled. Occasional short bursts (over several hours) of higher (∼ 10x) SO₂ flux have been accompanied by swarms of volcano-tectonic earthquakes. Strain data from these bursts indicate activation of the magma system to depths up to 10 km. SO₂ emissions since 1995 greatly exceed the amounts that could be derived from 1.1 km³ of erupted andesite, and indicating extensive partitioning of sulfur into a vapour phase, as well as efficient decoupling and outgassing of sulfur-rich gases from the magma. These observations are consistent with a vertically extensive, crustal magmatic mush beneath SHV. Three states of the magmatic system are postulated to control degassing. During dormant periods (10³ to 10⁴ years) magmatic vapour and melts separate as layers from the mush and decouple from each other. In periods of unrest (years) without eruption, melt and fluid layers become unstable, ascend and can amalgamate. Major destabilization of the mush system leads to eruption, characterized by magma mixing and release of volatiles with different ages, compositions and sources.RSJS acknowledges an ERC advanced grant (VOLDIES). JDB acknowledges ERC advanced grant CRITMAG and a Wolfson Research Merit Award.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015GC00579

The evolution and storage of primitive melts in the Eastern Volcanic Zone of Iceland: the 10 ka Grímsvötn tephra series (i.e. the Saksunarvatn ash)

Major, trace and volatile elements were measured in a suite of primitive macrocrysts and melt inclusions from the thickest layer of the 10 ka Grímsvötn tephra series (i.e. Saksunarvatn ash) at Lake Hvítárvatn in central Iceland. In the absence of primitive tholeiitic eruptions (MgO > 7 wt.%) within the Eastern Volcanic Zone (EVZ) of Iceland, these crystal and inclusion compositions provide an important insight into magmatic processes in this volcanically productive region. Matrix glass compositions show strong similarities with glass compositions from the AD 1783–84 Laki eruption, confirming the affinity of the tephra series with the Grímsvötn volcanic system. Macrocrysts can be divided into a primitive assemblage of zoned macrocryst cores (An_78–An_92, Mg#_cpx = 82–87, Fo_79.5–Fo_87) and an evolved assemblage consisting of unzoned macrocrysts and the rims of zoned macrocrysts (An_60–An_68, Mg#_cpx = 71–78, Fo_70–Fo_76). Although the evolved assemblage is close to being in equilibrium with the matrix glass, trace element disequilibrium between primitive and evolved assemblages indicates that they were derived from different distributions of mantle melt compositions. Juxtaposition of disequilibrium assemblages probably occurred during disaggregation of incompatible trace element-depleted mushes (mean La/Yb_melt = 2.1) into aphyric and incompatible trace element-enriched liquids (La/Yb_melt = 3.6) shortly before the growth of the evolved macrocryst assemblage. Post-entrapment modification of plagioclase-hosted melt inclusions has been minimal and high-Mg# inclusions record differentiation and mixing of compositionally variable mantle melts that are amongst the most primitive liquids known from the EVZ. Coupled high field strength element (HFSE) depletion and incompatible trace element enrichment in a subset of primitive plagioclase-hosted melt inclusions can be accounted for by inclusion formation following plagioclase dissolution driven by interaction with plagioclase-undersaturated melts. Thermobarometric calculations indicate that final crystal-melt equilibration within the evolved assemblage occurred at ~1140°C and 0.0–1.5 kbar. Considering the large volume of the erupted tephra and textural evidence for rapid crystallisation of the evolved assemblage, 0.0–1.5 kbar is considered unlikely to represent a pressure of long-term magma accumulation and storage. Multiple thermometers indicate that the primitive assemblage crystallised at high temperatures of 1240–1300°C. Different barometers, however, return markedly different crystallisation depth estimates. Raw clinopyroxene-melt pressures of 5.5–7.5 kbar conflict with apparent melt inclusion entrapment pressures of 1.4 kbar. After applying a correction derived from published experimental data, clinopyroxene-melt equilibria return mid-crustal pressures of 4±1.5 kbar, which are consistent with pressures estimated from the major element content of primitive melt inclusions. Long-term storage of primitive magmas in the mid-crust implies that low CO_2 concentrations measured in primitive plagioclase-hosted inclusions (262–800 ppm) result from post-entrapment CO_2 loss during transport through the shallow crust. In order to reconstruct basaltic plumbing system geometries from petrological data with greater confidence, mineral-melt equilibrium models require refinement at pressures of magma storage in Iceland. Further basalt phase equilibria experiments are thus needed within the crucial 1–7 kbar range.D.A.N. was supported by a Natural Environment Research Council studentship (NE/1528277/1) at the start of this project. SIMS analyses were supported by Natural Environment Research Council Ion Microprobe Facility award (IMF508/1013).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00410-015-1170-

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making

Controls on explosive-effusive volcanic eruption styles

One of the biggest challenges in volcanic hazard assessment is to understand how and why eruptive style changes within the same eruptive period or even from one eruption to the next at a given volcano. This review evaluates the competing processes that lead to explosive and effusive eruptions of silicic magmas. Eruptive style depends on a set of feedbacks involving interrelated magmatic properties and processes. Foremost of these are magma viscosity, gas loss, and external properties such as conduit geometry. Ultimately, these parameters control the speed at which magmas ascend, decompress and outgas en route to the surface, and thus determine eruptive style and evolution

Magma mobilization by downward-propagating decompression of the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic plumbing system

Detailed observations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruptions in Iceland show seismic activity propagating vertically through the entire crust during a ten-week period of volcanic unrest comprising multiple eruption episodes. Systematic changes in magma chemistry suggest a complex magmatic plumbing system, tapping several accumulation zones at different depths containing magma of differing ages and compositions. During the eruption, a systematic downward propagation of seismicity through the crust and into the upper mantle to ~30 km depth occurred in a series of steps, each of which preceded an explosive surge in eruption rate. Here we show that the sequence of seismicity and eruptive activity may be explained by the downward propagation of a decompression wave that triggers magma release from progressively deeper sills in the crust. Comparing observations of the downward-propagating seismicity with the decompression of a series of model elastic sills suggests that each sill was 1-10 km3 in size

Coalescence Microseismic Mapping

Earthquakes are commonly located by linearized inversion of discrete arrival time picks made from signals recorded at a network of seismic stations. If mis-picks are made, these will contribute to the location, therefore causing potential bias. For data recorded by a dense seismic array, direct imaging methods can be applied instead. We describe the ‘coalescence microseismic mapping’ method, which is a bridge between the two approaches and will operate with seismic data recorded continuously on a sparse array. By continuously mapping scalar signals derived from the envelope of seismic arrivals we derive robust estimates of the spatio-temporal coordinates of the origins of seismic events. Noisy data are migrated away from the correct origin, so do not contribute to errors in location. The method is rooted in a Bayesian formulation of event location traveltime inversion, allows imaging of source locations and has the capacity to handle errors in modelled traveltimes. It has the advantage of working with any 3-D velocity model, which therefore may include anisotropy. It also automatically incorporates both P- and S-wave data. A multiresolution grid search leads to an efficient implementation, with a search over a larger domain including joint inversion for location and velocity structure possible where warranted by the data quality. We discuss the theory and implementation of this method and illustrate it with real data from microseismic events in Iceland caused by melt intrusion in the crust

Using microearthquakes to track repeated magma intrusions beneath the Eyjafjallajökull stratovolcano, Iceland

We have mapped microearthquakes caused by magma migration preceding and during the flank and summit eruptions in March–May 2010 of Eyjafjallajökull stratovolcano in Iceland using a Coalescence Microseismic Mapping technique. Spatial and temporal clustering of >5,000 microearthquakes under the eastern flank of the volcano illuminates several northeast–southwest striking sub-vertical dikes at 2–6 km b.s.l., emplaced before the Fimmvörðuháls flank eruption in March. This intense precursory seismicity had a lateral extent of ∼6 km east-west and ∼3 km north-south. A sequence of 386 microearthquakes during the summit eruption, refined by double-difference relative relocation, defines a sub-linear trend inclined ∼5–10° from vertical extending from the upper mantle at ∼30 km depth to the summit crater. This sequence includes two major clusters at ∼19 km and ∼24 km b.s.l., each containing >100 earthquakes. All microearthquakes display characteristics of brittle fracture, with several subsets of events exhibiting closely similar waveforms within clusters. This suggests similar, repetitive source processes. The deeper clusters may be caused by fracturing solidified magma plugs that form constrictions in an otherwise aseismic melt conduit. Or they may occur at exit points from melt pockets, in which case they indicate positions of magma storage at depth. The seismicity deeper than 10 km only starts three weeks after the onset of the summit eruption, after which the largest clusters occur at progressively greater depths. This temporal pattern may result from pressure release at shallow levels in the magmatic plumbing system progressively feeding down to mobilize deeper melt pockets