Tsunamis: geology, hazards and risks: introduction

A decade or so ago, if you had asked almost anyone in Europe or North America, they might not have recognized the word ‘tsunami’. The enormous and tragic event that swept across the shores of the Indian Ocean on 26 December 2004, followed only a few years later by the devastating tsunami caused by the March 2011 Great Tohoku earthquake off Japan, both with appalling loss of life, changed all that. Today, the words ‘tsunami warning issued’ seem to appear frequently on international ‘breaking news’, showing the extent to which we have become sensitized to the triggers that launch these deadly, but terrifyingly spectacular, natural events. Yet, great tsunamis and the tectonic events that cause them have not suddenly become more frequent. The historical records of old civilizations contain accounts of major inundations reaching back hundreds or thousands of years and sometimes even warnings to future generations – valuable, if they are heeded. What has changed, and has consequently raised the profile of tsunamis, is the exponential growth in world population over the last few 100 years, the great majority of whom live in coastal areas and are consequently exposed to hazard, along with instant global communication, which brings every large earthquake on Earth's plate margins directly and immediately onto our screens

On the autonomous detection of coronal mass ejections in heliospheric imager data

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/95523/1/jgra21843.pd

Convective rear-flank downdraft as driver for meteotsunami along English Channel and North Sea coasts 28–29 May 2017

We examine the physical processes that led to the meteotsunami observed along the English Channel and North Sea coasts on 29 May 2017. It was most notably reported along the Dutch coast, but also observed on tide gauges from the Channel Islands to the coast of Germany, and also those in eastern England. From an assessment of multiple observations, including rain radar, LIDAR, satellite, surface observations and radiosonde reports we conclude that the event was driven by a rear flank downdraft in association with a mesoscale convective system (MCS). This downdraft, from a medium level or elevated MCS, led to a hydrostatically forced internal or ducted gravity wave below the MCS. The gravity wave was manifested by a marked rise and fall in pressure, a meso-high, which then interacted with the sea surface through Proudman resonance causing a measured wave of close to 0.9 m in amplitude, and an estimated wave run-up on Dutch beaches of 2 m. Through examination of existing research, we show that the basic assumptions here relating to the formation of the Dutch meteotsunami are consistent with previously described physical processes, and confirm the correlation between the speed of the ocean wave and medium level steering winds. This raises the possibility that high-resolution, coupled, weather-ocean numerical weather prediction (NWP) models can be utilised to predict future events. However, deterministic high-resolution NWP models still struggle with modelling convective systems with sufficient precision because of the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and incomplete observations. A way forward is proposed here to improve forecasting through post-processing of NWP model output by overlaying medium level wind fields with ocean bathymetry

Differences between the CME fronts tracked by an expert, an automated algorithm, and the Solar Stormwatch project

Observations from the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments aboard the twin STEREO spacecraft have enabled the compilation of several catalogues of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), each characterizing the propagation of CMEs through the inner heliosphere. Three such catalogues are the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL)-HI event list, the Solar Stormwatch CME catalogue, and, presented here, the J-tracker catalogue. Each catalogue uses a different method to characterize the location of CME fronts in the HI images: manual identification by an expert, the statistical reduction of the manual identifications of many citizen scientists, and an automated algorithm. We provide a quantitative comparison of the differences between these catalogues and techniques, using 51 CMEs common to each catalogue. The time-elongation profiles of these CME fronts are compared, as are the estimates of the CME kinematics derived from application of three widely used single-spacecraft-fitting techniques. The J-tracker and RAL-HI profiles are most similar, while the Solar Stormwatch profiles display a small systematic offset. Evidence is presented that these differences arise because the RAL-HI and J-tracker profiles follow the sunward edge of CME density enhancements, while Solar Stormwatch profiles track closer to the antisunward (leading) edge. We demonstrate that the method used to produce the time-elongation profile typically introduces more variability into the kinematic estimates than differences between the various single-spacecraft-fitting techniques. This has implications for the repeatability and robustness of these types of analyses, arguably especially so in the context of space weather forecasting, where it could make the results strongly dependent on the methods used by the forecaster

Reconstructing the 3-D Trajectories of CMEs in the Inner Heliosphere

A method for the full three-dimensional (3-D) reconstruction of the trajectories of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) data is presented. Four CMEs that were simultaneously observed by the inner and outer coronagraphs (COR1 and 2) of the Ahead and Behind STEREO satellites were analysed. These observations were used to derive CME trajectories in 3-D out to ~15Rsun. The reconstructions using COR1/2 data support a radial propagation model. Assuming pseudo-radial propagation at large distances from the Sun (15-240Rsun), the CME positions were extrapolated into the Heliospheric Imager (HI) field-of-view. We estimated the CME velocities in the different fields-of-view. It was found that CMEs slower than the solar wind were accelerated, while CMEs faster than the solar wind were decelerated, with both tending to the solar wind velocity.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures, 1 appendi

A simple and efficient GIS tool for volume calculations of submarine landslides

A numeric tool is presented for calculating volumes of topographic voids such as slump scars of landslides, canyons or craters (negative/concave morphology), or alternatively, bumps and hills (positive/convex morphology) by means of digital elevation models embedded within a geographical information system (GIS). In this study, it has been used to calculate landslide volumes. The basic idea is that a (singular) event (landslide, meteorite impact, volcanic eruption) has disturbed an intact surface such that it is still possible to distinguish between the former (undisturbed) landscape and the disturbance (crater, slide scar, debris avalanche). In such cases, it is possible to reconstruct the paleo-surface and to calculate the volume difference between both surfaces, thereby approximating the volume gain or loss caused by the event. I tested the approach using synthetically generated land surfaces that were created on the basis of Shuttle Radar Topography Mission data. Also, I show the application to two real cases, (1) the calculation of the volume of the Masaya Slide, a submarine landslide on the Pacific continental slope of Nicaragua, and (2) the calculation of the void of a segment of the Fish River Canyon, Namibia. The tool is provided as a script file for the free GIS GRASS. It performs with little effort, and offers a range of interpolation parameters. Testing with different sets of interpolation parameters results in a small range of uncertainty. This tool should prove useful in surface studies not exclusively on earth

Propagation of an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection in three dimensions

Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most significant drivers of adverse space weather at Earth, but the physics governing their propagation through the heliosphere is not well understood. While stereoscopic imaging of CMEs with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) has provided some insight into their three-dimensional (3D) propagation, the mechanisms governing their evolution remain unclear due to difficulties in reconstructing their true 3D structure. Here we use a new elliptical tie-pointing technique to reconstruct a full CME front in 3D, enabling us to quantify its deflected trajectory from high latitudes along the ecliptic, and measure its increasing angular width and propagation from 2-46 solar radii (approximately 0.2 AU). Beyond 7 solar radii, we show that its motion is determined by an aerodynamic drag in the solar wind and, using our reconstruction as input for a 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulation, we determine an accurate arrival time at the Lagrangian L1 point near Earth.Comment: 5 figures, 2 supplementary movie

In utero exposure to cigarette smoke dysregulates human fetal ovarian developmental signalling

STUDY QUESTION How does maternal cigarette smoking disturb development of the human fetal ovary?<p></p> SUMMARY ANSWER Maternal smoking increases fetal estrogen titres and dysregulates several developmental processes in the fetal ovary.<p></p> WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Exposure to maternal cigarette smoking during gestation reduces human fetal ovarian cell numbers, germ cell proliferation and subsequent adult fecundity.<p></p> STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION The effects of maternal cigarette smoking on the second trimester human fetal ovary, fetal endocrine signalling and fetal chemical burden were studied. A total of 105 fetuses were studied, 56 from mothers who smoked during pregnancy and 49 from those who did not.<p></p> PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING METHODS Ovary, liver and plasma samples were collected from electively terminated, normally progressing, second trimester human fetuses. Circulating fetal hormones, levels of 73 fetal ovarian transcripts, protein localization, density of oocytes/primordial follicles and levels of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the fetal liver were determined.<p></p> MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Circulating fetal estrogen levels were very high and were increased by maternal smoking (ANOVA, P = 0.055–0.004 versus control). Smoke exposure also dysregulated (two-way ANOVA, smoking versus gestation weeks interaction, P = 0.046–0.023) four fetal ovarian genes (cytochrome P450 scc [CYP11A1], NOBOX oogenesis homeobox [NOBOX], activator of apoptosis harakiri [HRK], nuclear receptor subfamily 2, group E, member 1 [NR2E1]), shifted the ovarian Inhibin βA/inhibin α ratio (NHBA/INHA) transcript ratio in favour of activin (ANOVA, P = 0.049 versus control) and reduced the proportion of dominant-negative estrogen receptor 2 (ERβ: ESR2) isoforms in half the exposed fetuses. PAHs, ligands for the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR), were increased nearly 6-fold by maternal smoking (ANOVA, P = 0.011 versus control). A fifth transcript, COUP transcription factor 1 (nuclear receptor subfamily 2, group F, member 1: NR2F1, which contains multiple AHR-binding sites), was both significantly increased (ANOVA, P = 0.026 versus control) and dysregulated by (two-way ANOVA, smoking versus gestation weeks interaction, P = 0.021) maternal smoking. NR2F1 is associated with repression of FSHR expression and smoke-exposed ovaries failed to show the normal increase in FSHR expression during the second trimester. There was a significantly higher number of DEAD (Asp-Glu-Ala-Asp) box polypeptide 4 (DDX4) VASA-positive (ANOVA, P = 0.016 versus control), but not POU domain, class 1, transcription factor 1 (POU5F1) OCT3/4-positive, oocytes in smoke-exposed fetuses and this matched with a significantly higher number of primordial follicles (ANOVA, P = 0.024 versus control).<p></p> LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The effects of maternal smoking on establishment of the maximum fetal primordial follicle pool cannot be reliably studied in our population since the process is not completed until 28 weeks of gestation and normal fetuses older than 21 weeks of gestation are not available for study. Our data suggest that some fetal ovaries are affected by smoke exposure while others are not, indicating that additional studies, with larger numbers, may show more significant effects.<p></p> WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS Fetal exposure to chemicals in cigarette smoke is known to lead to reduced fecundity in women. Our study suggests, for the first time, that this occurs via mechanisms involving activation of AHR, disruption of inhibin/activin and estrogen signalling, increased exposure to estrogen and dysregulation of multiple molecular pathways in the exposed human fetal ovary. Our data also suggest that alterations in the ESR2 positive and dominant negative isoforms may be associated with reduced sensitivity of some fetuses to increased estrogens and maternal smoking

Speeds and arrival times of solar transients approximated by self-similar expanding circular fronts

The NASA STEREO mission opened up the possibility to forecast the arrival times, speeds and directions of solar transients from outside the Sun-Earth line. In particular, we are interested in predicting potentially geo-effective Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) from observations of density structures at large observation angles from the Sun (with the STEREO Heliospheric Imager instrument). We contribute to this endeavor by deriving analytical formulas concerning a geometric correction for the ICME speed and arrival time for the technique introduced by Davies et al. (2012, ApJ, in press) called Self-Similar Expansion Fitting (SSEF). This model assumes that a circle propagates outward, along a plane specified by a position angle (e.g. the ecliptic), with constant angular half width (lambda). This is an extension to earlier, more simple models: Fixed-Phi-Fitting (lambda = 0 degree) and Harmonic Mean Fitting (lambda = 90 degree). This approach has the advantage that it is possible to assess clearly, in contrast to previous models, if a particular location in the heliosphere, such as a planet or spacecraft, might be expected to be hit by the ICME front. Our correction formulas are especially significant for glancing hits, where small differences in the direction greatly influence the expected speeds (up to 100-200 km/s) and arrival times (up to two days later than the apex). For very wide ICMEs (2 lambda > 120 degree), the geometric correction becomes very similar to the one derived by M\"ostl et al. (2011, ApJ, 741, id. 34) for the Harmonic Mean model. These analytic expressions can also be used for empirical or analytical models to predict the 1 AU arrival time of an ICME by correcting for effects of hits by the flank rather than the apex, if the width and direction of the ICME in a plane are known and a circular geometry of the ICME front is assumed.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in "Solar Physics

Give It Up for Baby: Outcomes and factors influencing uptake of a pilot smoking cessation incentive scheme for pregnant women

The use of incentives to promote smoking cessation is a promising technique for increasing the effectiveness of interventions. This study evaluated the smoking cessation outcomes and factors associated with success for pregnant smokers who registered with a pilot incentivised smoking cessation scheme in a Scottish health board area (NHS Tayside)