Energy Security prospects in Cyprus and Israel: A focus on Natural Gas

The global production of natural gas has increased from 1226 bcm in 1973 to 3282 bcm in 2010 and is projected to continue rising by an annual growth rate of 1.6% between 2010 to 2035. Cyprus and Israel have recently made major offshore discoveries of natural gas, which can supply to a great extent the two countries’ current domestic energy needs for the next few decades and still export a substantial volume. MESSAGE, a global optimization model was used to explore the possible interactions between the two countries’ energy systems. Scenarios are presented that assess the export potential for electricity (generated by gas-fired power plants), liquefied natural gas (LNG) or gas-to-liquid products (GTL). The results are compared to a scenario without any available reserves to illustrate the financial benefits that will arise from the exploitation of the gas resources in the two countries

The role of Energy-Water nexus to motivate transboundary cooperation:: An indicative analysis of the Drina River Basin

Hydropower is a key energy source for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7. Meanwhile, the effects of hydropower development and operation are complex, and potentially a source of tension on transboundary rivers. This paper aims at exploring solutions that consider both energy and water to motivate transboundary cooperation in the operation of hydropower plants (HPPs) in the Drina River Basin (DRB), where the level of cooperation among the riparian countries is low. OSeMOSYS was used to develop a multi-country model with a simplified hydrological system to represent the cascade of HPPs in the DRB. Results show that improved cooperation can increase electricity generation in the HPPs downstream without compromising generation upstream. It also demonstrates the role of inexpensive hydropower in enhancing electricity trade in the region. Implementing energy efficiency measures would reduce the stress on coal power plants, which will mitigate CO2 emissions by about 21% compared to the 2015 level

An indicative assessment of investment opportunities in the African electricity supply sector

In the coming decades, demand for electricity will increase considerably on the African continent. Investment in power generation, transmission and distribution is necessary to meet this demand. In this paper a cost-optimization tool is used to assess investment opportunities under varying scenarios of GDP growth, electricity trade and CO2 taxation. Business as usual fuel price outlooks are assumed, and related assumptions are relatively conservative. The goal is to find if there are economic indications that renewable energy might play a significant role in the expansion of the African electricity system. The results show that there is potential of renewable energy (RE) resources to have a significant share in the generation mix. By 2030, 42% and 55% of the total generation is powered by renewables in the high and low GDP scenarios respectively. Promotion of interregional trade can assist in unlocking RE potential across the continent, such as hydro in Central Africa and wind in East Africa; these regions are projected to be net exporters of electricity. Additionally, generation by off-grid technologies increases over time, reaching 12% of the total generation by 2030 in Sub-Saharan Africa

From the development of an open-source energy modelling tool to its application and the creation of communities of practice: The example of OSeMOSYS.

In the last decades, energy modelling has supported energy planning by offering insights into the dynamics between energy access, resource use, and sustainable development. Especially in recent years, there has been an attempt to strengthen the science-policy interface and increase the involvement of society in energy planning processes. This has, both in the EU and worldwide, led to the development of open-source and transparent energy modelling practices. This paper describes the role of an open-source energy modelling tool in the energy planning process and highlights its importance for society. Specifically, it describes the existence and characteristics of the relationship between developing an open-source, freely available tool and its application, dissemination and use for policy making. Using the example of the Open Source energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), this work focuses on practices that were established within the community and that made the framework's development and application both relevant and scientifically grounded

Modelling the demand and supply of natural gas from Cyprus and Israel

The use of natural gas as a primary energy source has increased over time and is expected to increase even further in the near future. Cyprus and Israel, two countries in the Eastern Mediterranean, have recently made major offshore discoveries of natural gas, sufficient enough to cover their own needs for at least the next few decades and use an even greater amount for export. In this project, the software MESSAGE was used to conduct modelling of the two countries’ energy systems. Projections were made until 2050 of the electricity generation in each country from each major energy source under different scenarios and the possibility of exporting electricity, liquefied natural gas (LNG) or gas-to-liquid products (GTL) was assessed

Large scale renewable energy deployment - Insights offered by long-term energy models from selected case studies

The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) of Agenda 2030 calls for an increase in the use of renewable energy sources, among other targets. The percentage of fossil fuel-fired thermal generation for electricity is increasingly being reduced as renewable energy technologies (RET) advance in cost-competitiveness, and as greenhouse gas and industrial air pollutant emission limits become more stringent. In certain cases, renewable energy contributes to energy security by improving a nation’s trade balance, since local resources are harnessed and imports are reduced. RET investments are becoming more frequent gaining a sizeable share in the electric power mix of numerous countries. However, RET is affected by existing fossil fuel-fired electricity generation, especially in countries that have domestic reserves. While coal may be dirty, others such as natural gas provide multiple benefits, presenting a challenge to renewables. Additionally, RET endowment varies for each geographical location. This often does not correspond to the location of major electricity demand centers.  Therefore, large scale RET adoption and integration becomes logistically more cumbersome, as it necessitates existence of a developed grid network. Utilizing a series of analyses in two different settings – Africa and Cyprus – this thesis draws insights on RET growth policy and the level of technology representation in long term energy models. In order to capture specific challenges of RET integration, enhancements in traditional long-term energy system models are called for and carried out.  The case of Africa is used to assess adoption of RET under various trade scenarios. It is home to some of the world’s greatest RET resource potential and the single largest potential RET project, Grand Inga.  While, the island of Cyprus has goals of introducing large percentages of RET into its electric power mix. Each have important idiosyncrasies which are reflected in the analysis. On the one hand, natural gas competes with RET in Cyprus and forms a key transition fuel away from oil. On the other hand, lack of cross-border interconnectors limit RET project development across Africa.QC 20170519</p

Enhancing decarbonization of power generation through electricity trade in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East Region

The region of the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) is one with highly diverse socioeconomic conditions. It is split between countries with rich fossil fuel reserves, which are net energy exporters, and countries that rely to a large extent on energy imports to satisfy their domestic demand. Despite the abundant renewable energy resources, especially for wind and solar, in 2019 renewable energy accounted for merely 12% of the total electricity generation across the region. The present effort aims to highlight the potential benefits offered by a future enhancement in electricity trade between EMME countries; this could unlock the currently unexploited renewable energy resources of the region. A model representing the national electricity supply system of seventeen EMME countries is developed in a cost-optimisation modelling framework (OSeMOSYS). This is then used to project cost-optimal development pathways for the respective energy systems, by assessing alternative scenarios where regional trade is limited or enhanced. Comparison of a set of scenarios is conducted to quantify implications in terms of renewable energy deployment, greenhouse gas emissions and overall system costs. Results from the analysis indicate that in the absence of climate neutrality ambition across the region, electricity trade is limited to existing levels. However, the need for electricity trade increases when countries strive to decarbonise their electricity supply cost-effectively

Sharing the decarbonisation effort: getting Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East countries on the road to global carbon neutrality

To achieve the Paris Agreement’s goals of keeping the global temperature rise well below 2 °C, or even better below 1.5 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels by the end of this century, countries need to make fair and ambitious contributions to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. Here, three clusters are proposed that encompass fourteen approaches derived from three main equity principles to determine equitable national emission allocations in the year 2030 for the seventeen countries in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region. The allocations are compared with the Nationally Determined Contributions of each country in order to assess the degree to which current EMME climate change mitigation targets are sufficient. The results suggest two approaches that may be considered both realistic and fair, although with the caveat that both rich and poor EMME countries may still have reason to resist the allocations indicated by these approaches. One of these two approaches relates to the principle of responsibility and the other relates to a combination of capability and responsibility. Both require emissions in the EMME region to drop by nearly 50% by 2030 as compared to 2019 levels so as to be in line with a 1.5 °C warming scenario

Regional effects of Grand Inga : A project-focus application of TEMBA (The Electricity Model Base for Africa)

The proposed Grand Inga project could reach a total generating capacity of 42 GW, making it the biggest hydropower plant in the world. The scale of the proposed project is immense in comparison to numerous national power systems in Sub-Saharan Africa – and their relatively small demand. As such, when it reaches its full potential, Grand Inga’s low-cost electricity has the potential to dominate the electricity supply mix of neighbouring countries. However, as a result of the required mobilization of funds for Grand Inga’s construction, potential markets and hence investors need to be identified. Energy-intensive and growing economies in Southern and Western Africa are likely destinations for the project’s electricity, but this also necessitates transnational grid expansion to enable trade. This paper employs a cost-optimization approach to provide an indication, under various scenarios, of selected national economies that are likely to demand electricity from Inga and the associated trade routes that should be put in place. A national-scale model of the African continent is employed and results are compared to a preceding study, which used a coarser resolution of the continent’s electricity supply system.QC 20170613</p

Regional effects of Grand Inga : A project-focus application of TEMBA (The Electricity Model Base for Africa)

The proposed Grand Inga project could reach a total generating capacity of 42 GW, making it the biggest hydropower plant in the world. The scale of the proposed project is immense in comparison to numerous national power systems in Sub-Saharan Africa – and their relatively small demand. As such, when it reaches its full potential, Grand Inga’s low-cost electricity has the potential to dominate the electricity supply mix of neighbouring countries. However, as a result of the required mobilization of funds for Grand Inga’s construction, potential markets and hence investors need to be identified. Energy-intensive and growing economies in Southern and Western Africa are likely destinations for the project’s electricity, but this also necessitates transnational grid expansion to enable trade. This paper employs a cost-optimization approach to provide an indication, under various scenarios, of selected national economies that are likely to demand electricity from Inga and the associated trade routes that should be put in place. A national-scale model of the African continent is employed and results are compared to a preceding study, which used a coarser resolution of the continent’s electricity supply system.QC 20170613</p