Developing financial markets

Central banks have an interest in well-functioning money markets, foreign exchange markets, and secondary markets for government securities. Efficient financial markets support both the monetary stability and financial stability goals of the central bank; and more broadly should benefit economic development. Well-functioning money markets support the transmission of an interest-rate based monetary policy and can provide information to the central bank. Liquid foreign exchange markets can help to stabilise the exchange rate and reduce transaction costs in cross-border trade and transfers. The development of these markets will support the later introduction of related financial markets such as repo and derivatives, which should in turn lead to improved risk management and financial stability, thereby enhancing economic welfare. Liquidity and price stability in short-term interest rate markets can support market-making, and thus liquidity in the securities markets. This in turn should reduce the cost of issuance for the government and other fixed-interest issuers. Indeed the secondary market for government securities may act as a catalyst for wider fixed income securities markets development: its yield curve is the benchmark for the pricing of the private sector credit. The advancement of these markets should be accompanied by the development of the appropriate market infrastructure such as robust payment and settlement systems and supportive legal framework. Many developing economies are characterised by illiquidity in these core markets, and in most cases a surplus of central bank money, in the form of excess commercial bank balances with the central bank. This handbook will look at what the central bank, and the Ministry of Finance as issuer of government securities, could do (and in some cases should not do) in support of the development of these markets.Developing financial markets

Monetary Operations

Monetary operations refer to the implementation of monetary policy – ensuring that a central bank’s policy decision has the intended impact on financial markets, and on the economy more generally. For operational purposes the day-to-day tactical target is usually to achieve a particular level of interest rates or the exchange rate; and the most efficient instruments are those which best complement the workings of a market system. This Handbook examines the various different instruments: open market operations; standing facilities; and both required reserves (which have some of the characteristics of direct controls), and voluntary or contractual reserves. Open market operations are undertaken at the initiative of the central bank, whereas standing facilities are used at the initiative of the commercial banks. Participation in both is voluntary at the level of individual banks, whereas in most countries reserve requirements are an administrative imposition on all banks - albeit one which, through averaging, allows them a degree of day-to-day flexibility. Monetary instruments are not only used to implement monetary policy; they are also used for liquidity management. This is an essential part of the central bank’s operations, in order to prevent the short-term uncertainty and price volatility which day-to-day swings in market liquidity would otherwise cause. The Handbook therefore also considers liquidity forecasting and management issues.Monetary Operations

Analyse d’implantation d’une solution technologique d’identification des fraudes internes aux caisses dans une chaîne de commerce de détail

Travail dirigé présenté en vue de l’obtention du grade de Maîtrise en Criminologie Option Sécurité intérieureCette étude de cas présente une analyse de l’implantation d’une solution technologique d’identification des fraudes aux caisses dans quatre succursales d’une chaîne de commerce de détail. Durant huit semaines un outil d’analyse a identifié des transactions présentant des risques de fraudes selon des critères préalablement établis basés sur l’utilisation de commandes spécifiques sur les caisses. Les séquences vidéo liées à ces transactions ont par la suite été visionnées afin de confirmer ou d’infirmer la présence de fraude. Le taux de fraudes identifiées par l’outil a été de 0,54%, pouvant être amélioré à 1,58% suite à l’implantation de recommandations pour optimiser son utilisation. Les résultats ont permis de définir quatre scripts distincts de fraudes aux caisses séparés en deux catégories : skimming et sweethearting. Bien que l’outil ait été en mesure d’identifier systématiquement toutes les fraudes aux caisses de skimming, l’identification des fraudes de sweethearting demeure aléatoire et incomplète. L’analyse des scripts des fraudes a permis de faire des recommandations portant d’une part sur l’optimisation de l’outil et d’autre part sur des mesures de prévention situationnelle à être implantées en magasin

Arthroscopic removal of a plastic soft drink bottle cap in the knee: a case report

We report a rare case of late knee locking after an open knee injury in a polytrauma patient with a pelvic fracture and a contralateral femoral artery injury. Once the life and limb threatening injuries were addressed, debridement and washout of the knee wound was performed. X-rays and subsequent CT revealed only an undisplaced patella fracture. The patient presented 6 months later to a knee surgeon with recurrent locking. An arthroscopy was performed and a 10 mm plastic soft drink bottle cap was retrieved leading to the immediate resolution of symptoms without complications

A graphical perspective of marginal structural models : an application for the estimation of the effect of physical activity on blood pressure

Estimating causal effects requires important prior subject-matter knowledge and, sometimes, sophisticated statistical tools. The latter is especially true when targeting the causal effect of a time-varying exposure in a longitudinal study. Marginal structural models (MSMs) are a relatively new class of causal models which effectively deal with the estimation of the effects of time-varying exposures. MSMs have traditionally been embedded in the counterfactual framework to causal inference. In this paper, we use the causal graph framework to enhance the implementation of MSMs. We illustrate our approach using data from a prospective cohort study, the Honolulu Heart Program. These data consist of 8006 men at baseline. To illustrate our approach, we focused on the estimation of the causal effect of physical activity on blood pressure, which were measured at three time-points. First, a causal graph is built to encompass prior knowledge. This graph is then validated and improved utilizing structural equation models. We estimated the aforementioned causal effect using MSMs for repeated measures and guided the implementation of the models with the causal graph. Employing the causal graph framework, we also show the validity of fitting conditional MSMs for repeated measures in the context implied by our data

A cautionary note concerning the use of stabilized weights in marginal structural models

Marginal structural models (MSMs) are commonly used to estimate the causal effect of a time-varying treatment in presence of time-dependent confounding. When fitting a MSM to data, the analyst must specify both the structural model for the outcome and the treatment models for the inverse-probability-of-treatment weights. The use of stabilized weights is recommended since they are generally less variable than the standard weights. In this paper, we are concerned with the use of the common stabilized weights when the structural model is specified to only consider partial treatment history, such as the current or most recent treatments. We present various examples of settings where these stabilized weights yield biased inferences while the standard weights do not. These issues are first investigated on the basis of simulated data and subsequently exemplified using data from the Honolulu Heart Program. Unlike common stabilized weights, we find that basic stabilized weights offer some protection against bias in structural models designed to estimate current or most recent treatment effects. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Psychosocial predictors of upper extremity transplantation outcomes: A review of the international registry 1998–2016

Background: Upper extremity transplantation (UET) is becoming increasingly common. This article attempts to collate data from cases contributing to the International Registry on Hand and Composite Tissue Transplantation (IRHCTT), define psychosocial themes perceived as predictors of success using statistical methods, and provide an objective measure for optimization and selection of candidates. Methods: The IRHCTT provided anonymous data on UET recipients. A supple- mentary psychosocial survey was developed focusing on themes of depression, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, interpersonal functioning and dependence, compliance, chronic pain, social support, quality of life, and patient expectations. We determined the risk of transplant loss and psychological factors associated with higher risk of transplant loss. Results: Sixty-two UET recipients reported to the IRHCTT. Forty-three psychoso- cial surveys (68%) were received, with 38 (88%) having intact transplants and 5 (12%) being amputated. Among recipients with a diagnosis of anxiety (N = 29, 67%), 5 (17%) reported transplant loss (P = 0.03). Among those with depression (N = 14, 33%), 2 recipients (14%) has transplant loss (P = 0.17); while 4 recipients (22%) with PTSD (N = 18, 42%) had transplant loss (P = 0.01). Of participants active in occupational therapy (N = 28, 65%), 2 (7%) reported transplant loss (P = 0.09). Of recipients with realistic functional expectations (N = 34, 79%), 2 (6%) had transplant loss versus 3 (34%) who were felt to not have realistic expec- tations (N = 9, 21%, P = 0.05). Recipients with strong family support (N = 33, 77%) had a lower risk of transplant loss compared with poor or fair family support (N = 10, 23%), but did not reach statistical significance (6% versus 30%, P = 0.14). Conclusion: Anxiety, depression, PTSD, participation in occupational therapy, expectations for posttransplant function, and family support are associated with postsurgical transplant status