Historical and future trends in the onset, withdrawal, and duration of the Indian summer monsoon in the northeastern Indian subcontinent

Historical (1976–2006) and future (2071–2100) trends in the onset, withdrawal and duration of the Indian summer monsoon were assessed under changing climatic conditions. First, historical precipitation data (APHRODITE) observed over the Indian subcontinent were analyzed to identify trends in the onset, withdrawal, and duration of the monsoon. In some regions, an earlier onset, increased duration, and delayed withdrawal were identified historically. These trends in the onset and duration were significant in the northeastern Indian subcontinent. Several climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) could capture the past trends detected in the observation data, and five models were selected to analyze the future period. The future projections of the CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 scenario had similar trends for the monsoon onset, withdrawal, and duration, albeit with weak statistical significance. The results suggest that the trends toward an earlier onset and delayed withdrawal observed in the past would continue and the duration would increase in the future

Probability assessment of flood and sediment disasters in Japan using the Total Runoff-Integrating Pathways model

AbstractTo address many of the problems faced in hydrological engineering planning, design, and management, a detailed knowledge of flood event characteristics, such as flood peak, volume, and duration is required. Flood frequency analysis often focuses on flood peak values and provides a limited assessment of flood events. To develop effective flood management and mitigation policies, estimation of the scale of potential disasters, incorporating the effects of social factors and climate conditions, is required along with quantitative measures of flood frequency. The Japanese flood risk index, the flood disaster occurrence probability (FDOP), was established based on both natural and social factors. It represents the expectation of damage in the case of a single flood occurrence, which is estimated by integrating a physical-based approach as a Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) model with Gumbel distribution metrics. The resulting equations are used to predict potential flood damage based on gridded Japanese data for independent variables. This approach is novel in that it targets floods based on units of events instead of a long-term trend. Moreover, the FDOP can express relative potential flood risk while considering flood damage. The significance of the present study is that both the hazard parameters (which contribute directly to flood occurrence) and vulnerability parameters (which reflect conditions of the region where the flood occurred), including residential and social characteristics, were shown quantitatively to affect flood damage. This study examined the probability of flood disaster occurrence using the TRIP model for Japan (J-TRIP), a river routing scheme that provides a digital river network covering Japan. The analysis was based on floods from 1976 to 2004 associated with flood inundation and sediment disasters. Based on these results, we estimated the probability of flood damage officially reported for the whole region of Japan at a grid interval of 0.1 degrees. The relationship between the magnitude of the rain hazard expressed as the probability of exceedance and the probability of flood damage officially reported was expressed as an exponential function by equalizing the whole region of Japan based on excess probability. Moreover, the probabilities of flood damage occurrence according to social factors and changes in climate conditions were also examined. The probability of flood damage occurrence is high, especially in regions of high population density. The results also showed the effect of the dam maintenance ratio on extreme flooding and flood damage frequency. The probability of flood damage occurrence was expected to increase during extreme weather events at the end of this century. These findings provide a sound foundation for use in catchment water resources management

Evapotranspiration seasonality across the Amazon Basin

Evapotranspiration (ET) of Amazon forests is a main driver of regional climate patterns and an important indicator of ecosystem functioning. Despite its importance, the seasonal variability of ET over Amazon forests, and its relationship with environmental drivers, is still poorly understood. In this study, we carry out a water balance approach to analyse seasonal patterns in ET and their relationships with water and energy drivers over five sub-basins across the Amazon Basin. We used in situ measurements of river discharge, and remotely sensed estimates of terrestrial water storage, rainfall, and solar radiation. We show that the characteristics of ET seasonality in all sub-basins differ in timing and magnitude. The highest mean annual ET was found in the northern Rio Negro basin (similar to 1497 mm year(-1)) and the lowest values in the Solimoes River basin (similar to 986 mm year(-1)). For the first time in a basin-scale study, using observational data, we show that factors limiting ET vary across climatic gradients in the Amazon, confirming local-scale eddy covariance studies. Both annual mean and seasonality in ET are driven by a combination of energy and water availability, as neither rainfall nor radiation alone could explain patterns in ET. In southern basins, despite seasonal rainfall deficits, deep root water uptake allows increasing rates of ET during the dry season, when radiation is usually higher than in the wet season. We demonstrate contrasting ET seasonality with satellite greenness across Amazon forests, with strong asynchronous relationships in ever-wet watersheds, and positive correlations observed in seasonally dry watersheds. Finally, we compared our results with estimates obtained by two ET models, and we conclude that neither of the two tested models could provide a consistent representation of ET seasonal patterns across the Amazon.Peer reviewe

New report charts course for future of geosciences

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/95550/1/eost14543.pd

Long-distance transport of radioactive plume by nocturnal local winds

Radioactive plumes can spread far and wide depending on wind conditions. The plumes often frequently reached the Tokyo metropolitan area, which is approximately 200 km away from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, under spatially heterogeneous wind fields in March 2011. To reduce exposure to radioactive plumes, the behaviour of the plumes must be known. However, the transport mechanism of radioactive plumes is not fully understood. Using a regional climate model, we show that multiple diurnal cycle processes play a key role in the frequent transport of radioactive plumes to the Tokyo metropolitan area. The observed data and hindcast results indicate that the radioactive plume moves along the local winds, which comprise the northeasterly local wind (NELW) associated with the meso-scale low-pressure system (meso-low) and the northerly sea wind (NSW) during the night. The long-term analysis and sensitivity simulations also show the nocturnal processes that the NELW caused by the meso-low and the NSW are formed east of the Tokyo metropolitan area and from Fukushima offshore east of the Tokyo metropolitan area, respectively, when neither winter monsoons nor extra-tropical cyclones are predominant. These findings indicate that the radioactive plumes could reach faraway places frequently via nocturnal local processes.UTokyo Research掲載「福島から首都圏へ放射性物質を運んだ風」 URI: http://www.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ja/utokyo-research/research-news/winds-carried-radioactive-materials-from-fukushima-to-tokyo.htmlUTokyo Research "Winds carried radioactive materials from Fukushima to Tokyo" URI: http://www.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en/utokyo-research/research-news/winds-carried-radioactive-materials-from-fukushima-to-tokyo.htm

Disruption of hydroecological equilibrium in southwest Amazon mediated by drought

The impacts of droughts on the Amazon ecosystem have been broadly discussed in recent years, but a comprehensive understanding of the consequences is still missing. In this study, we show evidence of a fragile hydrological equilibrium in the western Amazon. While drainage systems located near the equator and the western Amazon do not show water deficit in years with average climate conditions, this equilibrium can be broken during drought events. More importantly, we show that this effect is persistent, taking years until the normal hydrological patterns are reestablished. We show clear links between persistent changes in forest canopy structure and changes in hydrological patterns, revealing physical evidence of hydrological mechanisms that may lead to permanent changes in parts of the Amazon ecosystem. If prospects of increasing drought frequency are confirmed, a change in the current hydroecological patterns in the western Amazon could take place in less than a decade

The effects of annual precipitation and mean air temperature on annual runoff in global forest regions

Abstract Changing trends in runoff and water balance under a warming atmosphere are a major subject of interest in recent climatic and hydrological research. Forest basins represent the most complex systems including critical hydrological processes. In this study, we investigate the relationship between annual total runoff (Q), precipitation (P), and mean temperature (T) using observed data collected from 829 (forest) site years around the world. It is shown that the strong linear relationship between annual P and Q is a function of mean T. By empirically perturbing observed annual Q and P with T, a set of ΔQ-zero lines are derived for different mean T. To evaluate the extent to which the future changes in annual P and T alter Q, the future projections of ΔP and ΔT under a warming scenario (A1B) from five coupled AOGCMs (Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models) are compared with the empirical ΔQ-zero lines derived in this study. It is found that five AOGCMs show different distributions with respect to the ΔQ-zero lines, which can be attributed to the contrasting dominant sensitivities of various influencing factors to water balance partitioning among models. The knowledge gained in this empirical study is helpful to predict water resources changes under changing climate as well as to interpret hydrologic simulations in AOGCM future projections. Climatic Chang