Application of Poisson and Dixon-Coles models on football match outcome prediction and research of a positive return over investment in betting market

Data analysis has become the main driver of successful decision making in our nowadays world. From startups to big businesses application of statistics over constantly accumulating data has proven to be the key for growth in many industries. Currently, alongside business organizations and high-tech firms, governmental institutions, medical industry and many more rely on insights derived from big data. Usage of proper statistical models over data can increase a firm's profitability, identify a medical test's accuracy, support banks recognize fraud transactions and many more. One of the platforms where application of data analysis has grabbed a great deal of attention is over the most popular sport on earth - Football. Application of statistical models in order to predict football match results has been the center of attention for many people, from topp scientists to bookmakers already for quite some time. Certain techniques have been proposed to find potential statistical models that could be helpful in predicting match score outcomes. And with growing betting industry many have tried to beat bookies with the help of statistical models developed for making prediction for match results. In this paper, indirect approaches, namely Poisson and Dixon-Coles models will be applied to predict match score results. The reason why those models are referred as indirect is due to the fact that regression outputs through those models are goals, rather than direct match outcomes. We will try to beat punctuality of decisions derived from one's "gut feeling", an ambiguous term we will formalize in this paper, through using indirect approaches for match outcome modelling. And at the end, it is found that betting strategy formulated with the use of predictions through such models can yield a positive return through betting in the Premier League over the season 2018-2019

Structural Basis of Ets1 Cooperative Binding to Widely Separated Sites on Promoter DNA

Ets1 is a member of the Ets family of transcription factors. Ets1 is expressed in autoinhibited form and its DNA binding depends on partner proteins bound to adjacent sequences or the relative positioning of a second Ets-binding site (EBS). The autoinhibition of Ets1 is mediated by structural coupling of regions flanking the DNA-binding domain. The NMR structure of Ets1 revealed that the inhibitory regions comprised of helices HI1 and HI2 and H4 are packed together on the Ets domain to form an inhibitory module. The crystal structure of Ets1 unexpectedly revealed a homodimer in which homodimerisation occurs via swapping of HI1 helices. Modeling of DNA binding indicates that the Ets1 dimer can bind to two antiparallel pieces of DNA. To verify this, we crystallized and solved the structure of the complex comprised of Ets1 dimer and two pieces of DNA. DNA binding by Ets1 dimer resulted in formation of additional intermolecular protein•DNA interactions, implying that the complex formation is cooperative

Project activities as a basis for formation of communication universal education action

Автор рассматривает реализацию проектной деятельности в образовательном процессе основной школы, показывает, что проектная деятельность способствует освоению учащимися универсальных учебных действий, прежде всего коммуникативных: учащийся планирует учебное сотрудничество с учителем и сверстниками, определяет цель, функции участников, способ взаимодействия. Описаны основные этапы включения обучающихся в проект, которые содержательно конкретизируются при описании проекта "Времена года в искусстве".In connection with the new requirements of the GEF is the most relevant teaching and research and design activities, contributing to the development of students of universal educational actions. In the course of the project form universal communication training activities: the student plans to study co-operation with the teacher and peers, defines the purpose, functions of the participants, the process of interaction

The future of warfare. Anticipated changes in military trends

Purpose: to discuss the changes in the scientific and technical field, and examine their impact on military art. Method: comparative analysis, and synthesis. Findings: Today's military and political realities require the Armed Forces to be ready for wars that may occur at any time, including in the future, in order to ensure the country's national security. Because, as in the past, the struggle for natural resources, competition between states, aspirations for hegemony, as well as ideological differences and security concerns, which lead to military conflicts, will continue in the future. At the same time, the great progress achieved and expected in the field of technology will significantly change the traditional forms and methods of fighting. The study and skillful application of these forms and methods in the Armed Forces will be one of the main conditions for success in future wars. Scientific and technical progress affects all areas of human activity without exception, and has a noticeable effect on the development of methods and forms of war. In the future, the content and typology of military operations, strategy and tactics, forms and methods of application of armed forces will be formed under the influence of scientific and technical progress, mainly in the fields of artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and nanotechnology. For this reason, in order to study the nature of future wars, to predict the methods and forms of military operations, the article considers the causes of wars, discusses the changes in the scientific and technical field, and examines their impact on military art. Theoretical implications: The paper enhances our understanding of significant transformations due to advancements in technology, changes in geopolitical dynamics, and evolving societal expectations, against the backdrop of the extensive use of autonomous systems, including drones, unmanned vehicles, and AI-powered decision-making tools. Practical implications: The paper contibutes to the development of military strategies and operational plans, which consider how technological, social, and geopolitical changes will concretely affect the future warfare. Value: The study offers significant value in understanding and predicting the nature and character of future warfare and provides multiple lenses through which to analyze the war and devise strategies in line with emerging security threats

Evolution of DNA polymerases: an inactivated polymerase-exonuclease module in Pol ε and a chimeric origin of eukaryotic polymerases from two classes of archaeal ancestors

Background: Evolution of DNA polymerases, the key enzymes of DNA replication and repair, is central to any reconstruction of the history of cellular life. However, the details of the evolutionary relationships between DNA polymerases of archaea and eukaryotes remain unresolved. Results: We performed a comparative analysis of archaeal, eukaryotic, and bacterial B-family DNA polymerases, which are the main replicative polymerases in archaea and eukaryotes, combined with an analysis of domain architectures. Surprisingly, we found that eukaryotic Polymerase ε consists of two tandem exonuclease-polymerase modules, the active N-terminal module and a C-terminal module in which both enzymatic domains are inactivated. The two modules are only distantly related to each other, an observation that suggests the possibility that Pol ε evolved as a result of insertion and subsequent inactivation of a distinct polymerase, possibly, of bacterial descent, upstream of the C-terminal Zn-fingers, rather than by tandem duplication. The presence of an inactivated exonuclease-polymerase module in Pol ε parallels a similar inactivation of both enzymatic domains in a distinct family of archaeal B-family polymerases. The results of phylogenetic analysis indicate that eukaryotic B-family polymerases, most likely, originate from two distantly related archaeal B-family polymerases, one form giving rise to Pol ε, and the other one to the common ancestor of Pol α, Pol δ, and Pol ζ. The C-terminal Zn-fingers that are present in all eukaryotic B-family polymerases, unexpectedly, are homologous to the Zn-finger of archaeal D-family DNA polymerases that are otherwise unrelated to the B family. The Zn-finger of Polε shows a markedly greater similarity to the counterpart in archaeal PolD than the Zn-fingers of other eukaryotic B-family polymerases. Conclusion: Evolution of eukaryotic DNA polymerases seems to have involved previously unnoticed complex events. We hypothesize that the archaeal ancestor of eukaryotes encoded three DNA polymerases, namely, two distinct B-family polymerases and a D-family polymerase all of which contributed to the evolution of the eukaryotic replication machinery. The Zn-finger might have been acquired from PolD by the B-family form that gave rise to Pol ε prior to or in the course of eukaryogenesis, and subsequently, was captured by the ancestor of the other B-family eukaryotic polymerases. The inactivated polymerase-exonuclease module of Pol ε might have evolved by fusion with a distinct polymerase, rather than by duplication of the active module of Pol ε, and is likely to play an important role in the assembly of eukaryotic replication and repair complexes. Reviewers: This article was reviewed by Patrick Forterre, Arcady Mushegian, and Chris Ponting. For the full reviews, pleas

Elongation complexes of Thermus thermophilus RNA polymerase that possess distinct translocation conformations

We have characterized elongation complexes (ECs) of RNA polymerase from the extremely thermophilic bacterium, Thermus thermophilus. We found that complexes assembled on nucleic acid scaffolds are transcriptionally competent at high temperature (50–80°C) and, depending upon the organization of the scaffold, possess distinct translocation conformations. ECs assembled on scaffolds with a 9 bp RNA:DNA hybrid are highly stable, resistant to pyrophosphorolysis, and are in the posttranslocated state. ECs with an RNA:DNA hybrid longer or shorter than 9 bp appear to be in a pretranslocated state, as evidenced by their sensitivity to pyrophosphorolysis, GreA-induced cleavage, and exonuclease footprinting. Both pretranslocated (8 bp RNA:DNA hybrid) and posttranslocated (9 bp RNA:DNA hybrid) complexes were crystallized in distinct crystal forms, supporting the homogeneity of the conformational states in these complexes. Crystals of a posttranslocated complex were used to collect diffraction data at atomic resolution

Service-level anchoring in demand forecasting: The moderating impact of retail promotions and product perishability

The development of demand plans involves the integration of demand forecasts, service-level prerequisites, replenishment constraints, and revenue projections. However, empirical evidence has brought to light that forecasters often fail to distinguish between demand forecasts and demand plans. More specifically, forecasters frequently incorporate service-level requirements into their demand forecasts, even when explicitly instructed not to do so. This study endeavors to investigate the potential moderating impacts of product perishability and the presence of sales promotions on this phenomenon. Our findings reveal that sales promotions can meaningfully moderate the influence of service levels, since individuals tend to exhibit an elevated propensity for overforecasting during promotional periods when service levels are high. Surprisingly, no compelling evidence is found for the moderating effect of product perishability

Structural insights into the transcriptional and translational roles of Ebp1.

Accepted versio