Predictive study on time series modeling and comparison with application

Efficient time series modeling and forecasting are essential in different practice areas. Consequently, much active research work on this topic has been ongoing for several years. Given the importance of different prediction methods, this research aims to provide a brief description of some common time series prediction models used with their salient features. Therefore, Box-Jenkins and exponential booting models were compared, along with the strengths and weaknesses of the prediction. Our discussion on various time series models is supported by giving the experimental prediction results, which were made to the actual monthly sales of some fuel products for the period 2014-2017. While installing the Data Set template, special care is taken to select the most creative. To evaluate prediction accuracy in addition to comparing it, we used several criteria, mean square error (MSE), mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (RMSE). To obtain originality and clarity in our discussion on modeling and forecasting a time series, we were able to obtain assistance from various published research work from famous magazines and some standard books and it was concluded that the 3ARMA terms best model among the Box-Jenkins models built based on the dependence of gas oil sales in Iraq, as well as Simple exponential smoothing is the best exponential smoothing model to forecast in the coming years for sales of improved gas and gas oil in Iraq

Assessment of anxiety and depression in hospitalized cardiac patients of Faisalabad Institute of Cardiology, Pakistan

Purpose: To assess the level of anxiety and depression in hospitalized cardiac patients in Faisalabad Institute of Cardiology, Faisalabad, Pakistan.Methods: The study was conducted on hospitalized cardiac patients at Faisalabad Institute of Cardiology (FIC), Faisalabad. Aga Khan University Anxiety and Depression Scale (AKUADS) was applied to estimate the occurrence of depression and anxiety in selected participants. This study involved 400 diagnosed hospitalized cardiac patients and another 400 participants without cardiac disease as control group.Results: The anxiety and depression level in hospitalized cardiac patient’s was 79.5% (318), compared with 68.25 % (273) of the control group. Female patients were also more prone to depression than male patients. Psychological suffering was 1.80 times more in the hospitalized cardiac patients (OR = 1.804, 95 %CI = 1.308 - 2.488, p = 0.0001). The results showed that gender was the leading factor in the occurrence of co-morbidities such as depression and anxiety.Conclusion: Depression symptoms are more common among hospitalized patients than in those without cardiac disease. Close monitoring is required and patients with psychiatric illness should be referred for appropriate treatment to overcome this risk.Keywords: Hypertension, Anxiety, Depression, Gender, Cardiac patient

Effect of early tranexamic acid administration on mortality, hysterectomy, and other morbidities in women with post-partum haemorrhage (WOMAN): an international, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background Post-partum haemorrhage is the leading cause of maternal death worldwide. Early administration of tranexamic acid reduces deaths due to bleeding in trauma patients. We aimed to assess the effects of early administration of tranexamic acid on death, hysterectomy, and other relevant outcomes in women with post-partum haemorrhage. Methods In this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we recruited women aged 16 years and older with a clinical diagnosis of post-partum haemorrhage after a vaginal birth or caesarean section from 193 hospitals in 21 countries. We randomly assigned women to receive either 1 g intravenous tranexamic acid or matching placebo in addition to usual care. If bleeding continued after 30 min, or stopped and restarted within 24 h of the first dose, a second dose of 1 g of tranexamic acid or placebo could be given. Patients were assigned by selection of a numbered treatment pack from a box containing eight numbered packs that were identical apart from the pack number. Participants, care givers, and those assessing outcomes were masked to allocation. We originally planned to enrol 15 000 women with a composite primary endpoint of death from all-causes or hysterectomy within 42 days of giving birth. However, during the trial it became apparent that the decision to conduct a hysterectomy was often made at the same time as randomisation. Although tranexamic acid could influence the risk of death in these cases, it could not affect the risk of hysterectomy. We therefore increased the sample size from 15 000 to 20 000 women in order to estimate the effect of tranexamic acid on the risk of death from post-partum haemorrhage. All analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This trial is registered with ISRCTN76912190 (Dec 8, 2008); ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00872469; and PACTR201007000192283. Findings Between March, 2010, and April, 2016, 20 060 women were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive tranexamic acid (n=10 051) or placebo (n=10 009), of whom 10 036 and 9985, respectively, were included in the analysis. Death due to bleeding was significantly reduced in women given tranexamic acid (155 [1·5%] of 10 036 patients vs 191 [1·9%] of 9985 in the placebo group, risk ratio [RR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·65–1·00; p=0·045), especially in women given treatment within 3 h of giving birth (89 [1·2%] in the tranexamic acid group vs 127 [1·7%] in the placebo group, RR 0·69, 95% CI 0·52–0·91; p=0·008). All other causes of death did not differ significantly by group. Hysterectomy was not reduced with tranexamic acid (358 [3·6%] patients in the tranexamic acid group vs 351 [3·5%] in the placebo group, RR 1·02, 95% CI 0·88–1·07; p=0·84). The composite primary endpoint of death from all causes or hysterectomy was not reduced with tranexamic acid (534 [5·3%] deaths or hysterectomies in the tranexamic acid group vs 546 [5·5%] in the placebo group, RR 0·97, 95% CI 0·87-1·09; p=0·65). Adverse events (including thromboembolic events) did not differ significantly in the tranexamic acid versus placebo group. Interpretation Tranexamic acid reduces death due to bleeding in women with post-partum haemorrhage with no adverse effects. When used as a treatment for postpartum haemorrhage, tranexamic acid should be given as soon as possible after bleeding onset. Funding London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Pfizer, UK Department of Health, Wellcome Trust, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Na⁺ K⁺-ATPase activity in response to exogenous dehydroepiandrosterone administration in aging rat brain

852-854Influence of exogenously administered dehydroepiand-rosterone (DHEA) on the activity of Na+ K+ ATPase was investigated in synaptosomal fraction from cerebral cortex, cerebellum, hippocampus and medulla regions of brain of 12 and 22 months old rats. DHEA was administered daily at the dose of 30 mg/kg/body wt, intraperitonially (ip) in both the age groups of rats for 1 month. Results showed that Na+ K+ ATPase activity, increased in DHEA treated rats in both the age groups. In terms of per cent increase, 22 months old animals showed significant increase in Na+ K+ ATPase activity in the synaptosomal fraction of all the four brain regions than in 12 months old DHEA-treated rats. This showed that exogenous DHEA modulated the activity of Na+ K+ ATPase and also protected the age-related loss of membrane integrity and functions. It was concluded that exogenous DHEA might be beneficial in terms of neuroprotection against age-related loss of Na+ K+ ATPase mediated brain functions like learning and memory

Exogenous administration of dehydroepiendrosterone attenuates loss of superoxide dismuatse activity in the brain of old rats

57-60The influence of exogenously administered dehyroepiendrosterone (DHEA) on the activity of superoxide dismutase (SOD) was investigated in the mitochondrial and cytosolic fractions from cerebral cortex, cerebellum, hippocampus and medulla regions of the brains of 12- and 22-months old rats. DHEA was administered daily at the dose of 30 mg/kg/body wt, intraperitonially (i.p) in both age groups of rats for 1 month. Results showed that SOD activity was significantly higher in the mitochondrial fraction than in the cytosolic fraction, in DHEA-treated animals in both age groups. This indicated that exogenous DHEA affected mitochondrial SOD more than the cytosolic SOD. In terms of percent increase, 22 months-old animals showed significant increase in the SOD activity in both the fractions of all the four brain regions than in the 12 months old DHEA-treated animals. This showed that exogenous DHEA provided more protection to the SOD in ageing brain of older rats (22 months) than the younger (12 month) ones. The study suggests that exogenous DHEA is more beneficial at old age in terms of neuroprotection against oxidative stress-mediated brain dysfunctions and may protect age-related alterations in cognitive functions like learning and memory

Sodium Orthovanadate and Trigonella Foenum Graecum Prevents Neuronal Parameters Decline and Impaired Glucose Homeostasis in Alloxan Diabetic Rats

Hyperglycemia is the most important contributor in the onset and progress of diabetic complications mainly by producing oxidative stress. The present study was carried out to observe, the antihyperglycemic effect of sodium orthovanadate (SOV) and Trigonella foenum graecum seed powder (TSP) administration on blood glucose and insulin levels, membrane linked enzymes (monoamine oxidase, acetylcholinesterase, Ca2+ATPase), intracellular calcium (Ca2+) levels, lipid peroxidation, membrane fluidity and neurolipofuscin accumulation in brain of the alloxan induced diabetic rats and to see whether the treatment with SOV and TSP was capable of reversing the diabetic effects. Diabetes was induced by administration of alloxan monohydrate (15 mg/100 g body weight) and rats were treated with 2 IU insulin, 0.6 mg/ml SOV, 5% TSP in the diet and a combination of 0.2 mg/ml SOV and 5% TSP separately for three weeks. Diabetic rats showed hyperglycemia with almost four fold high blood glucose levels. Activities of acetylcholinesterase and Ca2+ATPase decreased in diabetic rat brain. Diabetic rats exhibited an increased level of intracellular Ca2+ levels, lipid peroxidation, neurolipofuscin accumulations and monoamine oxidase activity. Treatment of diabetic rats with insulin, TSP, SOV and a combined therapy of lower dose of SOV with TSP revived normoglycemia and restored the altered level of membrane bound enzymes, lipid peroxidation and neurolipofuscin accumulation. Our results showed that lower doses of SOV (0.2 mg/ml) could be used in combination with TSP in normalization of altered metabolic parameters and membrane linked enzymes without any harmful side effect

The Electropolishing of C-Steel in Orthophosphoric Acid Containing Methanolic Plant Extract

Plant extracts have been regarded as “green” alternatives as additives for metal electropolishing improvement. Therefore, understanding the electrochemical properties and the reaction mechanisms of the electroactive compounds from the plant extracts is necessary to further explore the mechanism and application of the plant extract-based additives for metal dissolution. The C-steel electropolishing behavior in orthophosphoric acid using the galvanostatic polarization and weight loss methods was ascertained. This was inspected via anode potential-limiting current relationship measurement and comparison in a solution of regularly mounting concentrations (from 50 to 1800 ppm of methanolic marjoram, coriander seeds, chamomile, and guava leaves extract), and the influence of temperature on the dissolution kinetics was investigated. Surface morphologies, roughness, and reflection of investigated specimens were inspected with a scanning electron microscope (SEM), profilometry, and Vis-IR spectroscopy. Addition of methanolic plant extract to the electropolishing solution results in a lower limiting current. Retardation percentage gained from mass loss measurement is comparable with those obtained from measurements of galvanostatic polarization. Addition of 500 ppm of marjoram, coriander, chamomile, and guava leaves increases the degree of surface brightness and reflectance to 64.9, 56.59, 27, and 24.5, respectively, relative to electropolishing electrolyte-free solution 16. The roughness (Ra) decreased from 2.7 μm to 0.52 μm without addition of any material. Ra values are 0.28, 0.23, 0.21, and 0.17 μm in the presence of guava leaves, chamomile, coriander seeds, and marjoram

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Abstract: To investigate general public perception towards the role of pharmacist in developing countriesí healthcare system was the main aim of this study, which would be the basic foundation for researching the treatment pattern of cognitive disorder after stroke in communities. The study population (sample size = 385) consisted of general public from Islamabad, Faisalabad and Lahore, Pakistan. Main sections of the questionnaire comprised of series of statements pertaining to consumerís perception and experience with the pharmacists. The response rate of study was 77.1%. A majority (80.1%) of the consumers knows who is pharmacist; 49.8% (n = 148) of the respondents found the pharmacist working in the pharmacies; 74.1% (n = 220) believed that pharmacist can guide them regarding their medicine. With respect to government efforts to improve services provided by community pharmacies, less percentage (31.0%) of the consumers were satisfied. Half of the respondents (59.9%) were expecting from the pharmacists to be knowledgeable drug therapy experts, whereas 61.3% (n = 182) expect from the pharmacists to educate them regarding safe and appropriate use of medication. The findings of this study conclude that the quality of pharmaceutical services provided is very low in Pakistan. There is a gap between the public and the pharmacist, which can only be filled by creating awareness among public regarding the pharmacistís role in healthcare system and by focusing on how services provided by the pharmacists can add improvement to general public health

Efficacy of Massage on Pain Intensity in Post-Cesarean Women: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Cesarean section is a common surgical procedure that may be considered a safe alternative to natural birth and helps to resolve numerous obstetric conditions. Still, the Cesarean section is painful; relieving pain after a Cesarean section is crucial, therefore analgesia is necessary for the postoperative period. However, analgesia is not free of complications and contraindications, so massage may be a cost-effective method for decreasing pain post-Cesarean. Our study aims to determine the massage role in pain intensity after Cesarean sections. Methods: We searched five electronic databases for relevant studies. Data were extracted from the included studies after screening procedures. We calculated the pooled mean difference (MD) and standardized mean difference (SMD) for our continuous outcomes, using random or fixed-effect meta-analysis according to heterogenicity status. Interventional studies were assessed for methodological quality using the Cochrane risk-of-bias assessment tool, while observational studies were assessed using the National Institutes of Health’s tools. Results: Our study included 10 RCTs and five observational studies conducted with over 1,595 post-Cesarean women. The pooled MDs for pain intensity considering baseline values either immediately or post 60-90 minutes were favoring the massage group over the control group as follows:(stand. MD = -2.64, 95% CI [-3.80, -1.48], p > .00001; MD = -2.64, 95% CI [-3.80, -1.48], p > .00001, respectively). While pooled MDs regarding post-intervention only either immediately or post 60-90 minutes were:(stand. MD = -2.04, 95% CI [-3.26, -0.82], p = .001; stand. MD = -2.62, 95% CI [-3.52, -1.72], p > .00001, respectively). Conclusion: Our study found that using massage was superior to the control groups in decreasing pain intensity either when the pain was assessed immediately after or 60-90 minutes post-massage application