Multinational development and validation of an early prediction model for delirium in ICU patients

Rationale Delirium incidence in intensive care unit (ICU) patients is high and associated with poor outcome. Identification of high-risk patients may facilitate its prevention. Purpose To develop and validate a model based on data available at ICU admission to predict delirium development during a patient’s complete ICU stay and to determine the predictive value of this model in relation to the time of delirium development. Methods Prospective cohort study in 13 ICUs from seven countries. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to develop the early prediction (E-PRE-DELIRIC) model on data of the first two-thirds and validated on data of the last one-third of the patients from every participating ICU. Results In total, 2914 patients were included. Delirium incidence was 23.6 %. The E-PRE-DELIRIC model consists of nine predictors assessed at ICU admission: age, history of cognitive impairment, history of alcohol abuse, blood urea nitrogen, admission category, urgent admission, mean arterial blood pressure, use of corticosteroids, and respiratory failure. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.76 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.73–0.77] in the development dataset and 0.75 (95 % CI 0.71–0.79) in the validation dataset. The model was well calibrated. AUROC increased from 0.70 (95 % CI 0.67–0.74), for delirium that developed 6 days. Conclusion Patients’ delirium risk for the complete ICU length of stay can be predicted at admission using the E-PRE-DELIRIC model, allowing early preventive interventions aimed to reduce incidence and severity of ICU delirium

Physician-assisted suicide: a review of the literature concerning practical and clinical implications for UK doctors

BACKGROUND: A bill to legalize physician-assisted suicide in the UK recently made significant progress in the British House of Lords and will be reintroduced in the future. Until now there has been little discussion of the clinical implications of physician-assisted suicide for the UK. This paper describes problematical issues that became apparent from a review of the medical and psychiatric literature as to the potential effects of legalized physician-assisted suicide. DISCUSSION: Most deaths by physician-assisted suicide are likely to occur for the illness of cancer and in the elderly. GPs will deal with most requests for assisted suicide. The UK is likely to have proportionately more PAS deaths than Oregon due to the bill's wider application to individuals with more severe physical disabilities. Evidence from other countries has shown that coercion and unconscious motivations on the part of patients and doctors in the form of transference and countertransference contribute to the misapplication of physician-assisted suicide. Depression influences requests for hastened death in terminally ill patients, but is often under-recognized or dismissed by doctors, some of whom proceed with assisted death anyway. Psychiatric evaluations, though helpful, do not solve these problems. Safeguards that are incorporated into physician-assisted suicide criteria probably decrease but do not prevent its misapplication. SUMMARY: The UK is likely to face significant clinical problems arising from physician-assisted suicide if it is legalized. Terminally ill patients with mental illness, especially depression, are particularly vulnerable to the misapplication of physician-assisted suicide despite guidelines and safeguards