Cliophysics: Socio-political Reliability Theory, Polity Duration and African Political (In)stabilities

Quantification of historical sociological processes have recently gained attention among theoreticians in the effort of providing a solid theoretical understanding of the behaviors and regularities present in sociopolitical dynamics. Here we present a reliability theory of polity processes with emphases on individual political dynamics of African countries. We found that the structural properties of polity failure rates successfully capture the risk of political vulnerability and instabilities in which 87.50%, 75%, 71.43%, and 0% of the countries with monotonically increasing, unimodal, U-shaped and monotonically decreasing polity failure rates, respectively, have high level of state fragility indices. The quasi-U-shape relationship between average polity duration and regime types corroborates historical precedents and explains the stability of the autocracies and democracies.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Competing biosecurity and risk rationalities in the Chittagong poultry commodity chain, Bangladesh

This paper anthropologically explores how key actors in the Chittagong live bird trading network perceive biosecurity and risk in relation to avian influenza between production sites, market maker scenes and outlets. They pay attention to the past and the present, rather than the future, downplaying the need for strict risk management, as outbreaks have not been reported frequently for a number of years. This is analysed as ‘temporalities of risk perception regarding biosecurity’, through Black Swan theory, the idea that unexpected events with major effects are often inappropriately rationalized (Taleb in The Black Swan. The impact of the highly improbable, Random House, New York, 2007). This incorporates a sociocultural perspective on risk, emphasizing the contexts in which risk is understood, lived, embodied and experienced. Their risk calculation is explained in terms of social consent, practical intelligibility and convergence of constraints and motivation. The pragmatic and practical orientation towards risk stands in contrast to how risk is calculated in the avian influenza preparedness paradigm. It is argued that disease risk on the ground has become a normalized part of everyday business, as implied in Black Swan theory. Risk which is calculated retrospectively is unlikely to encourage investment in biosecurity and, thereby, points to the danger of unpredictable outlier events

What explains ethnic organizational violence? Evidence from Eastern Europe and Russia

Why do some ethnopolitical organizations use violence? Research on substate violence often uses the state level of analysis, or only analyzes groups that are already violent. Using a resource mobilization framework drawn from a broad literature, we test hypotheses with new data on hundreds of violent and non-violent ethnopolitical organizations in Eastern Europe and Russia. Our study finds interorganizational competition, state repression and strong group leadership associated with organizational violence. Lack of popularity and holding territory are also associated with violence. We do not find social service provision positively related to violence, which contrasts with research on the Middle East

“Beyond words”: a researcher’s guide to using photo elicitation in psychology

The use of photo elicitation is limited within the field of psychology despite its theoretical and practical potential. It offers significant benefits as a qualitative method that could present a new and interesting way of exploring previously understood topics within the discipline. Within our discussions, we present a Step-by-Step guide in which we outline the key practical stages, as well as ethical assurances involved in photo elicitation research, using our ongoing research as an illustrative example. It is intended that this could be used as a model of good practice for developing research paradigms beyond those typically used within the psychology discipline

Prospective object search in dogs: mixed evidence for knowledge of What and Where

We investigated whether two dogs that had been specially trained to retrieve objects by their names were able to integrate information about the identity (What) as well as the location (Where) of those objects so that they could plan their search accordingly. In a first study, two sets of objects were placed in two separate rooms and subjects were asked to retrieve the objects, one after the other. Both dogs remembered the identity of the objects as they reliably retrieved the correct objects. One of the dogs was also able to integrate information about the object’s location as he chose the correct location in which the object had been placed. Further investigation of the second dog’s behavior revealed that she followed a more stereotyped search strategy. Despite this variation in performance, this study provides evidence for the memory of What and Where in a domestic dog and shows the prospective use of such information in a search task

The Rossiter-McLaughlin effect in Exoplanet Research

The Rossiter-McLaughlin effect occurs during a planet's transit. It provides the main means of measuring the sky-projected spin-orbit angle between a planet's orbital plane, and its host star's equatorial plane. Observing the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect is now a near routine procedure. It is an important element in the orbital characterisation of transiting exoplanets. Measurements of the spin-orbit angle have revealed a surprising diversity, far from the placid, Kantian and Laplacian ideals, whereby planets form, and remain, on orbital planes coincident with their star's equator. This chapter will review a short history of the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect, how it is modelled, and will summarise the current state of the field before describing other uses for a spectroscopic transit, and alternative methods of measuring the spin-orbit angle.Comment: Review to appear as a chapter in the "Handbook of Exoplanets", ed. H. Deeg & J.A. Belmont

The Impact of Duty Hours on Resident Self Reports of Errors

BACKGROUND: Resident duty hour limitations aim, in part, to reduce medical errors. Residents’ perceptions of the impact of duty hours on errors are unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine residents’ self-reported contributing factors, frequency, and impact of hours worked on suboptimal care practices and medical errors. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. SUBJECTS: 164 Internal Medicine Residents at the University of California, San Francisco. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Residents were asked to report the frequency and contributing factors of suboptimal care practices and medical errors, and how duty hours impacted these practices and aspects of resident work-life. One hundred twenty-five residents (76%) responded. The most common suboptimal care practices were working while impaired by fatigue and forgetting to transmit information during sign-out. In multivariable models, residents who felt overwhelmed with work (p = 0.02) and who reported spending >50% of their time in nonphysician tasks (p = 0.002) were more likely to report suboptimal care practices. Residents reported work-stress (a composite of fatigue, excessive workload, distractions, stress, and inadequate time) as the most frequent contributing factor to medical errors. In multivariable models, only engaging in suboptimal practices was associated with self-report of higher risk for medical errors (p < 0.001); working more than 80 hours per week was not associated with suboptimal care or errors. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that administrative load and work stressors are more closely associated with resident reports of medical errors than the number of hours work. Efforts to reduce resident duty hours may also need to address the nature of residents’ work to reduce errors

Exploring the Dynamic Range of the Kinetic Exclusion Assay in Characterizing Antigen-Antibody Interactions

Therapeutic antibodies are often engineered or selected to have high on-target binding affinities that can be challenging to determine precisely by most biophysical methods. Here, we explore the dynamic range of the kinetic exclusion assay (KinExA) by exploiting the interactions of an anti-DKK antibody with a panel of DKK antigens as a model system. By tailoring the KinExA to each studied antigen, we obtained apparent equilibrium dissociation constants (KD values) spanning six orders of magnitude, from approximately 100 fM to 100 nM. Using a previously calibrated antibody concentration and working in a suitable concentration range, we show that a single experiment can yield accurate and precise values for both the apparent KD and the apparent active concentration of the antigen, thereby increasing the information content of an assay and decreasing sample consumption. Orthogonal measurements obtained on Biacore and Octet label-free biosensor platforms further validated our KinExA-derived affinity and active concentration determinations. We obtained excellent agreement in the apparent affinities obtained across platforms and within the KinExA method irrespective of the assay orientation employed or the purity of the recombinant or native antigens

Application of Inelastic Neutron Scattering to the Methanol-to-Gasoline Reaction Over a ZSM-5 Catalyst

Inelastic neutron scattering (INS) is used to investigate a ZSM-5 catalyst that has been exposed to methanol vapour at elevated temperature. In-line mass spectrometric analysis of the catalyst exit stream confirms methanol-to-gasoline chemistry, whilst ex situ INS measurements detect hydrocarbon species formed in/on the catalyst during methanol conversion. These preliminary studies demonstrate the capability of INS to complement infrared spectroscopic characterisation of the hydrocarbon pool present in/on ZSM-5 during the MTG reaction