Empirical study of correlated survival times for recurrent events with proportional hazards margins and the effect of correlation and censoring.

Background: In longitudinal studies where subjects experience recurrent incidents over a period of time, such as respiratory infections, fever or diarrhea, statistical methods are required to take into account the within-subject correlation. Methods: For repeated events data with censored failure, the independent increment (AG), marginal (WLW) and conditional (PWP) models are three multiple failure models that generalize Cox"s proportional hazard model. In this paper, we revise the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of all three models under simulated scenarios with varying degrees of within-subject correlation, censoring levels, maximum number of possible recurrences and sample size. We also study the methods performance on a real dataset from a cohort study with bronchial obstruction. Results: We find substantial differences between methods and there is not an optimal method. AG and PWP seem to be preferable to WLW for low correlation levels but the situation reverts for high correlations. Conclusions: All methods are stable in front of censoring, worsen with increasing recurrence levels and share a bias problem which, among other consequences, makes asymptotic normal confidence intervals not fully reliable, although they are well developed theoretically

Vitamin D supplementation and breast cancer prevention : a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

In recent years, the scientific evidence linking vitamin D status or supplementation to breast cancer has grown notably. To investigate the role of vitamin D supplementation on breast cancer incidence, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing vitamin D with placebo or no treatment. We used OVID to search MEDLINE (R), EMBASE and CENTRAL until April 2012. We screened the reference lists of included studies and used the “Related Article” feature in PubMed to identify additional articles. No language restrictions were applied. Two reviewers independently extracted data on methodological quality, participants, intervention, comparison and outcomes. Risk Ratios and 95% Confident Intervals for breast cancer were pooled using a random-effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 test. In sensitivity analysis, we assessed the impact of vitamin D dosage and mode of administration on treatment effects. Only two randomized controlled trials fulfilled the pre-set inclusion criteria. The pooled analysis included 5372 postmenopausal women. Overall, Risk Ratios and 95% Confident Intervals were 1.11 and 0.74–1.68. We found no evidence of heterogeneity. Neither vitamin D dosage nor mode of administration significantly affected breast cancer risk. However, treatment efficacy was somewhat greater when vitamin D was administered at the highest dosage and in combination with calcium (Risk Ratio 0.58, 95% Confident Interval 0.23–1.47 and Risk Ratio 0.93, 95% Confident Interval 0.54–1.60, respectively). In conclusions, vitamin D use seems not to be associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer development in postmenopausal women. However, the available evidence is still limited and inadequate to draw firm conclusions. Study protocol code: FARM8L2B5L

Multiple imputation for estimating hazard ratios and predictive abilities in case-cohort surveys

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The weighted estimators generally used for analyzing case-cohort studies are not fully efficient and naive estimates of the predictive ability of a model from case-cohort data depend on the subcohort size. However, case-cohort studies represent a special type of incomplete data, and methods for analyzing incomplete data should be appropriate, in particular multiple imputation (MI).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed simulations to validate the MI approach for estimating hazard ratios and the predictive ability of a model or of an additional variable in case-cohort surveys. As an illustration, we analyzed a case-cohort survey from the Three-City study to estimate the predictive ability of D-dimer plasma concentration on coronary heart disease (CHD) and on vascular dementia (VaD) risks.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>When the imputation model of the phase-2 variable was correctly specified, MI estimates of hazard ratios and predictive abilities were similar to those obtained with full data. When the imputation model was misspecified, MI could provide biased estimates of hazard ratios and predictive abilities. In the Three-City case-cohort study, elevated D-dimer levels increased the risk of VaD (hazard ratio for two consecutive tertiles = 1.69, 95%CI: 1.63-1.74). However, D-dimer levels did not improve the predictive ability of the model.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>MI is a simple approach for analyzing case-cohort data and provides an easy evaluation of the predictive ability of a model or of an additional variable.</p

FTO gene variation and measures of body mass in an African population

BACKGROUND: Variation in the fat mass and obesity associated (FTO) gene has been reproducibly associated with body mass index (BMI) and obesity in populations of White European origin. Data from Asians and African-Americans is less conclusive. METHODS: We assessed the effect of 16 FTO polymorphisms on body mass in a large population of predominantly lean Gambians (N(max) 2208) participating in a long-term surveillance program providing contemporary and early-life anthropometric measurements. RESULTS: Sixteen FTO tagSNPs screened here, including several associated with BMI in Europeans, were not associated with birth weight (BWT), early weight gain in 1-2 year olds, BMI in adults (> or = 18 y), or weight-for-height (WFH) z-score across all ages. No association was seen between genotype and WFH z-score or other measures of body mass. The confidence limits indicate that the effect size for WFH z-score never exceeded 0.17 units per allele copy for any SNP (excluding the three SNPs with allele < 15%). with much the lowest allele frequency. The confidence interval of the effect size for rs9939609 did not overlap that reported previously in Europeans. CONCLUSION: To our knowledge this is the first study of FTO gene variation in a well-characterised African population. Our results suggest that FTO gene variation does not influence measures of body mass in Gambians living a traditional lifestyle, or has a smaller effect than that detected in Europeans. These findings are not directly comparable to results from previous studies in African-Americans due to differences in study design and analysis. It is also possible that any effect of FTO genotype on body mass is of limited relevance in a lean population where little excess food is available, compared to similar ethnic populations where food supply is plentiful

Alternative statistical methods for estimating efficacy of interferon beta-1b for multiple sclerosis clinical trials

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the randomized study of interferon beta-1b (IFN beta-1b) for multiple sclerosis (MS), it has usually been evaluated the simple annual relapse rate as the study endpoint. This study aimed to investigate the performance of various regression models using information regarding the time to each recurrent event and considering the MS specific data generation process, and to estimate the treatment effect of a MS clinical trial data.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a simulation study with consideration of the pathological characteristics of MS, and applied alternative efficacy estimation methods to real clinical trial data, including 5 extended Cox regression models for time-to-event analysis, a Poisson regression model and a Poisson regression model with Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE). We adjusted for other important covariates that may have affected the outcome.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We compared the simulation results for each model. The hazard ratios of real data were estimated for each model including the effects of other covariates. The results (hazard ratios of high-dose to low-dose) of all models were approximately 0.7 (range, 0.613 - 0.769), whereas the annual relapse rate ratio was 0.714.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The precision of the treatment estimation was increased by application of the alternative models. This suggests that the use of alternative models that include recurrence event data may provide better analyses.</p

A comprehensive study on the role of the Yersinia pestis virulence markers in an animal model of pneumonic plague

We determined the role of Yersinia pestis virulence markers in an animal model of pneumonic plague. Eleven strains of Y. pestis were characterized using PCR assays to detect the presence of known virulence genes both encoded by the three plasmids as well as chromosomal markers. The virulence of all Y. pestis strains was compared in a mouse model for pneumonic plague. The presence of all known virulence genes correlated completely with virulence in the Balb/c mouse model. Strains which lacked HmsF initially exhibited visible signs of disease whereas all other strains (except wild-type strains) did not exhibit any disease signs. Forty-eight hours post-infection, mice which had received HmsF– strains regained body mass and were able to control infection; those infected with strains possessing a full complement of virulence genes suffered from fatal disease. The bacterial loads observed in the lung and other tissues reflected the observed clinical signs as did the cytokine changes measured in these animals. We can conclude that all known virulence genes are required for the establishment of pneumonic plague in mammalian animal models, the role of HmsF being of particular importance in disease progression

Back from a Predicted Climatic Extinction of an Island Endemic: A Future for the Corsican Nuthatch

The Corsican Nuthatch (Sitta whiteheadi) is red-listed as vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN because of its endemism, reduced population size, and recent decline. A further cause is the fragmentation and loss of its spatially-restricted favourite habitat, the Corsican pine (Pinus nigra laricio) forest. In this study, we aimed at estimating the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the Corsican Nuthatch using species distribution models. Because this species has a strong trophic association with the Corsican and Maritime pines (P. nigra laricio and P. pinaster), we first modelled the current and future potential distribution of both pine species in order to use them as habitat variables when modelling the nuthatch distribution. However, the Corsican pine has suffered large distribution losses in the past centuries due to the development of anthropogenic activities, and is now restricted to mountainous woodland. As a consequence, its realized niche is likely significantly smaller than its fundamental niche, so that a projection of the current distribution under future climatic conditions would produce misleading results. To obtain a predicted pine distribution at closest to the geographic projection of the fundamental niche, we used available information on the current pine distribution associated to information on the persistence of isolated natural pine coppices. While common thresholds (maximizing the sum of sensitivity and specificity) predicted a potential large loss of the Corsican Nuthatch distribution by 2100, the use of more appropriate thresholds aiming at getting closer to the fundamental distribution of the Corsican pine predicted that 98% of the current presence points should remain potentially suitable for the nuthatch and its range could be 10% larger in the future. The habitat of the endemic Corsican Nuthatch is therefore more likely threatened by an increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires or anthropogenic activities than by climate change

Sugar-added beverages consumption among kindergarten children of Crete: effects on nutritional status and risk of obesity

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>To assess the intake of sugar-added beverages such as soft drinks and commercially available fruit juices in kindergarten children, and to examine its association with obesity indices, physical activity levels and dietary habits.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 856 children aged 4–7 years living in Crete, Greece in 2004–5 were included in this cross-sectional study. Nutrient and food intake was assessed with the use of 3-day weighed food records. Body measurements were used in order to assess BMI and waist circumference, and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity was calculated with the use of a questionnaire.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Approximately 59.8% of all children consumed sugar-added beverages on a daily basis. High intake of sugar-added beverages (> 250 g/day) was associated with low intakes of calcium (p < 0.001), vitamin A and E (p < 0.010), fruits and vegetables (p = 0.007), and milk and yogurt (p = 0.048). Compared to non or low consumers, high consumers of sugar-added beverages (> 250 g/day) had higher BMI levels and two times greater risk of being overweight and/or obese (OR:2.35, p = 0.023).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>High intake of sugar-added beverages in kindergarten children is associated with poor eating habits and inadequate nutrient intake, as well as increased risk for developing childhood obesity.</p

Promotional Tone in Reviews of Menopausal Hormone Therapy After the Women's Health Initiative: An Analysis of Published Articles

Adriane Fugh-Berman and colleagues analyzed a selection of published opinion pieces on hormone therapy and show that there may be a connection between receiving industry funding for speaking, consulting, or research and the tone of such opinion pieces