End-use forecasting in the context of building adaptive water services

Water resource managers are faced with planning for an uncertain future constrained by limited knowledge of how demands will change in future and what supplies will be available to match them. By adopting an adaptive management approach, flexible and robust responses can be developed as new information comes to hand. A transparent approach has been developed that avoids complicated probabilistic approaches and encourages planners to consider investment policies to accommodate a range of potential scenarios. Integrated resource planning (IRP) principles are key to this approach and requires that both supply and demand side options are considered. Whilst much focus has been on the supply side, end user interventions have received less attention as a longer term approach. Restrictions have to date been the fall back option to deal with impending droughts, but this is not likely to be acceptable under reduced trending supplies. By focusing on end-use planning, savings through suppressed customer demand can free up further water thereby delaying the introduction of large expensive supply options. By disaggregating the end uses by residential customers into for example, showers, toilets, baths, washing machines, outdoor use, etc., a richer understanding of where residential water actually gets used and therefore where the potential for demand reduction lie. This paper firstly presents a framework for adaptive planning for urban water supplies and secondly, introduces the notion of end-use modelling and planning as a means to reduce consumption. Real examples from work conducted in Australia will be used to illustrate these approaches

Stabilization of the coupled oxygen and phosphorus cycles by the evolution of bioturbation

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this record Animal burrowing and sediment-mixing (bioturbation) began during the run up to the Ediacaran/Cambrian boundary, initiating a transition between the stratified Precambrian and more well-mixed Phanerozoic sedimentary records, against the backdrop of a variable global oxygen reservoir probably smaller in size than present. Phosphorus is the long-term limiting nutrient for oxygen production via burial of organic carbon, and its retention (relative to carbon) within organic matter in marine sediments is enhanced by bioturbation. Here we explore the biogeochemical implications of a bioturbation-induced organic phosphorus sink in a simple model. We show that increased bioturbation robustly triggers a net decrease in the size of the global oxygen reservoir - the magnitude of which is contingent upon the prescribed difference in carbon to phosphorus ratios between bioturbated and laminated sediments. Bioturbation also reduces steady-state marine phosphate levels, but this effect is offset by the decline in iron-adsorbed phosphate burial that results from a decrease in oxygen concentrations. The introduction of oxygen-sensitive bioturbation to dynamical model runs is sufficient to trigger a negative feedback loop: the intensity of bioturbation is limited by the oxygen decrease it initially causes. The onset of this feedback is consistent with redox variations observed during the early Cambrian rise of bioturbation, leading us to suggest that bioturbation helped to regulate early oxygen and phosphorus cycles. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Inge Lehmann ScholarshipVILLUM FoundationNational Basic Research Program of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaDeutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG

Survival of the Systems

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from cell Press via the DOI in this recordSince Darwin, individuals and more recently genes have been the focus of evolutionary thinking. The idea that selection operates on non-reproducing, higher-level systems including ecosystems or societies has met with scepticism. But research emphasising that natural selection can be based solely on differential persistence invites reconsideration of their evolution. Self-perpetuating feedback cycles involving biotic as well as abiotic components are critical to determining persistence. Evolution of autocatalytic networks of molecules is well studied, but the principles hold for any ‘self-perpetuating’ system. Ecosystem examples include coral reefs, rainforests and savannahs. Societal examples include agricultural systems, dominant belief systems and economies. Persistence-based selection of feedbacks can help us understand how ecological and societal systems survive or fail in a changing world

Computers in Secondary Schools: Educational Games

This entry introduces educational games in secondary schools. Educational games include three main types of educational activities with a playful learning intention supported by digital technologies: educational serious games, educational gamification, and learning through game creation. Educational serious games are digital games that support learning objectives. Gamification is defined as the use of "game design elements and game thinking in a non-gaming context" (Deterding et al. 2011, p. 13). Educational gamification is not developed through a digital game but includes game elements for supporting the learning objectives. Learning through game creation is focused on the process of designing and creating a prototype of a game to support a learning process related to the game creation process or the knowledge mobilized through the game creation process. Four modalities of educational games in secondary education are introduced in this entry to describe educational games in secondary education: educational purpose of entertainment games, serious games, gamification, and game design

Warm afterglow from the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event drives the success of deep-adapted brachiopods

This is the final version. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Many aspects of the supposed hyperthermal Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE, Early Jurassic, c. 182Ma) are well understood but a lack of robust palaeotemperature data severely limits reconstruction of the processes that drove the T-OAE and associated environmental and biotic changes. New oxygen isotope data from calcite shells of the benthic fauna suggest that bottom water temperatures in the western Tethys were elevated by c. 3.5°C through the entire T-OAE. Modelling supports the idea that widespread marine anoxia was induced by a greenhouse-driven weathering pulse, and is compatible with the OAE duration being extended by limitation of the global silicate weathering fux. In the western Tethys Ocean, the later part of the T-OAE is characterized by abundant occurrences of the brachiopod Soaresirhynchia, which exhibits characteristics of slow-growing, deep sea brachiopods. The unlikely success of Soaresirhynchia in a hyperthermal event is attributed here to low metabolic rate, which put it at an advantage over other species from shallow epicontinental environments with higher metabolic demand.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Early Palaeozoic ocean anoxia and global warming driven by the evolution of shallow burrowing

The evolution of burrowing animals forms a defining event in the history of the Earth. It has been hypothesised that the expansion of seafloor burrowing during the Palaeozoic altered the biogeochemistry of the oceans and atmosphere. However, whilst potential impacts of bioturbation on the individual phosphorus, oxygen and sulphur cycles have been considered, combined effects have not been investigated, leading to major uncertainty over the timing and magnitude of the Earth system response to the evolution of bioturbation. Here we integrate the evolution of bioturbation into the COPSE model of global biogeochemical cycling, and compare quantitative model predictions to multiple geochemical proxies. Our results suggest that the advent of shallow burrowing in the early Cambrian contributed to a global low-oxygen state, which prevailed for ~100 million years. This impact of bioturbation on global biogeochemistry likely affected animal evolution through expanded ocean anoxia, high atmospheric CO2 levels and global warming

Salvage radiotherapy for patients with PSA relapse after radical prostatectomy: a single institution experience

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To assess the efficacy of salvage radiotherapy (RT) for persistent or rising PSA after radical prostatectomy and to determine prognostic factors identifying patients who may benefit from salvage RT.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Between 1990 and 2003, 59 patients underwent RT for PSA recurrence after radical prostatectomy. Patients received a median of 66 Gy to the prostate bed with 3D or 2D RT. The main end point was biochemical failure after salvage RT, defined as an increase of the serum PSA value >0.2 ng/ml confirmed by a second elevation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Median follow-up was 38 months. The 3-year and 5-year bDFS rates were 56.1% and 41.2% respectively. According to multivariate analysis, only preRT PSA ≥1 ng/ml was associated with biochemical relapse.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When delivered early, RT is an effective treatment after radical prostatectomy. Only preRT PSA ≥1 ng/ml predicted relapse.</p

Use of the Pediatric Symptom Checklist for the detection of psychosocial problems in preventive child healthcare

BACKGROUND: Early detection and treatment of psychosocial problems by preventive child healthcare may lead to considerable health benefits, and a short questionnaire could support this aim. The aim of this study was to assess whether the Dutch version of the US Pediatric Symptom checklist (PSC) is valid and suitable for the early detection of psychosocial problems among children. METHODS: We included 687 children (response 84.3%) aged 7–12 undergoing routine health assessments in nine Preventive Child Health Services across the Netherlands. Child health professionals interviewed and examined children and parents. Before the interview, parents completed an authorised Dutch translation of the PSC and the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL). The CBCL and data on the child's current treatment status were used as criteria for the validity of the PSC. RESULTS: The consistency of the Dutch PSC was good (Cronbach alpha 0.89). The area under the ROC curve using the CBCL as a criterion was 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.92 to 0.96). At the US cut-off (28 and above), the prevalence rate of an increased score and sensitivity were lower than in the USA. At a lower cut-off (22 and above), sensitivity and specificity were similar to that of the US version (71.7% and 93.0% respectively). Information on the PSC also helped in the identification of children with elevated CBCL Total Problems Scores, above solely clinical judgment. CONCLUSION: The PSC is also useful for the early detection of psychosocial problems in preventive child healthcare outside the USA, especially with an adjusted cut-off