Stochastic climate theory and modeling

Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as subgrid-scale parameterizations (SSPs) as well as for model error representation, uncertainty quantification, data assimilation, and ensemble prediction. The need to use stochastic approaches in weather and climate models arises because we still cannot resolve all necessary processes and scales in comprehensive numerical weather and climate prediction models. In many practical applications one is mainly interested in the largest and potentially predictable scales and not necessarily in the small and fast scales. For instance, reduced order models can simulate and predict large-scale modes. Statistical mechanics and dynamical systems theory suggest that in reduced order models the impact of unresolved degrees of freedom can be represented by suitable combinations of deterministic and stochastic components and non-Markovian (memory) terms. Stochastic approaches in numerical weather and climate prediction models also lead to the reduction of model biases. Hence, there is a clear need for systematic stochastic approaches in weather and climate modeling. In this review, we present evidence for stochastic effects in laboratory experiments. Then we provide an overview of stochastic climate theory from an applied mathematics perspective. We also survey the current use of stochastic methods in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models and show that stochastic parameterizations have the potential to remedy many of the current biases in these comprehensive models

KCa2 channels activation prevents [Ca2+]i deregulation and reduces neuronal death following glutamate toxicity and cerebral ischemia

Exacerbated activation of glutamate receptor-coupled calcium channels and subsequent increase in intracellular calcium ([Ca2+]i) are established hallmarks of neuronal cell death in acute and chronic neurological diseases. Here we show that pathological [Ca2+]i deregulation occurring after glutamate receptor stimulation is effectively modulated by small conductance calcium-activated potassium (KCa2) channels. We found that neuronal excitotoxicity was associated with a rapid downregulation of KCa2.2 channels within 3 h after the onset of glutamate exposure. Activation of KCa2 channels preserved KCa2 expression and significantly reduced pathological increases in [Ca2+]i providing robust neuroprotection in vitro and in vivo. These data suggest a critical role for KCa2 channels in excitotoxic neuronal cell death and propose their activation as potential therapeutic strategy for the treatment of acute and chronic neurodegenerative disorders

Holocene dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds and possible links to CO2 outgassing

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SHW) play an important role in regulating the capacity of the Southern Ocean carbon sink. They modulate upwelling of carbon-rich deep water and, with sea ice, determine the ocean surface area available for air–sea gas exchange. Some models indicate that the current strengthening and poleward shift of these winds will weaken the carbon sink. If correct, centennial- to millennial-scale reconstructions of the SHW intensity should be linked with past changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and sea ice. Here we present a 12,300-year reconstruction of wind strength based on three independent proxies that track inputs of sea-salt aerosols and minerogenic particles accumulating in lake sediments on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island. Between about 12.1 thousand years ago (ka) and 11.2 ka, and since about 7 ka, the wind intensities were above their long-term mean and corresponded with increasing atmospheric CO2. Conversely, from about 11.2 to 7.2 ka, the wind intensities were below their long-term mean and corresponded with decreasing atmospheric CO2. These observations are consistent with model inferences of enhanced SHW contributing to the long-term outgassing of CO2 from the Southern Ocean

Antarctic last interglacial isotope peak in response to sea ice retreat not ice-sheet collapse

Several studies have suggested that sea-level rise during the last interglacial implies retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The prevalent hypothesis is that the retreat coincided with the peak Antarctic temperature and stable water isotope values from 128,000 years ago (128 ka); very early in the last interglacial. Here, by analysing climate model simulations of last interglacial WAIS loss featuring water isotopes, we show instead that the isotopic response to WAIS loss is in opposition to the isotopic evidence at 128 ka. Instead, a reduction in winter sea ice area of 65±7% fully explains the 128 ka ice core evidence. Our finding of a marked retreat of the sea ice at 128 ka demonstrates the sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice extent to climate warming

Folic Acid and Protein Content in Maternal Diet and Postnatal High-Fat Feeding Affect the Tissue Levels of Iron, Zinc, and Copper in the Rat

Although maternal, fetal, and placental mechanisms compensate for disturbances in the fetal environment, any nutritional inadequacies present during pregnancy may affect fetal metabolism, and their consequences may appear in later life. The aim of the present study is to investigate the influence of maternal diet during gestation on Fe, Zn, and Cu levels in the livers and kidneys of adult rats. The study was carried out on the offspring (n = 48) of mothers fed either a protein-balanced or a protein-restricted diet (18% vs. 9% casein) during pregnancy, with or without folic acid supplementation (0.005- vs. 0.002-g folic acid/kg diet). At 10 weeks of age, the offspring of each maternal group were randomly assigned to groups fed either the AIN-93G diet or a high-fat diet for 6 weeks, until the end of the experiment. The levels of Fe, Zn, and Cu in the livers and kidneys were determined by the F-AAS method. It was found that postnatal exposure to the high-fat diet was associated with increased hepatic Fe levels (p < 0.001), and with decreased liver Zn and Cu contents (p < 0.01 and p < 0.05, respectively), as well as with decreased renal Cu contents (p < 0.001). Moreover, the offspring’s tissue mineral levels were also affected by protein and folic acid content in the maternal diet. Both prenatal protein restriction and folic acid supplementation increased the liver Zn content (p < 0.05) and the kidney Zn content (p < 0.001; p < 0.05, respectively), while folic acid supplementation resulted in a reduction in renal Cu level (p < 0.05). Summarizing, the results of this study show that maternal dietary folic acid and protein intake during pregnancy, as well as the type of postweaning diet, affect Fe, Zn, and Cu levels in the offspring of the rat. However, the mechanisms responsible for this phenomenon are unclear, and warrant further investigation

Efficient Coding and Statistically Optimal Weighting of Covariance among Acoustic Attributes in Novel Sounds

To the extent that sensorineural systems are efficient, redundancy should be extracted to optimize transmission of information, but perceptual evidence for this has been limited. Stilp and colleagues recently reported efficient coding of robust correlation (r = .97) among complex acoustic attributes (attack/decay, spectral shape) in novel sounds. Discrimination of sounds orthogonal to the correlation was initially inferior but later comparable to that of sounds obeying the correlation. These effects were attenuated for less-correlated stimuli (r = .54) for reasons that are unclear. Here, statistical properties of correlation among acoustic attributes essential for perceptual organization are investigated. Overall, simple strength of the principal correlation is inadequate to predict listener performance. Initial superiority of discrimination for statistically consistent sound pairs was relatively insensitive to decreased physical acoustic/psychoacoustic range of evidence supporting the correlation, and to more frequent presentations of the same orthogonal test pairs. However, increased range supporting an orthogonal dimension has substantial effects upon perceptual organization. Connectionist simulations and Eigenvalues from closed-form calculations of principal components analysis (PCA) reveal that perceptual organization is near-optimally weighted to shared versus unshared covariance in experienced sound distributions. Implications of reduced perceptual dimensionality for speech perception and plausible neural substrates are discussed

Latitudinal Gradients in Degradation of Marine Dissolved Organic Carbon

Heterotrophic microbial communities cycle nearly half of net primary productivity in the ocean, and play a particularly important role in transformations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC). The specific means by which these communities mediate the transformations of organic carbon are largely unknown, since the vast majority of marine bacteria have not been isolated in culture, and most measurements of DOC degradation rates have focused on uptake and metabolism of either bulk DOC or of simple model compounds (e.g. specific amino acids or sugars). Genomic investigations provide information about the potential capabilities of organisms and communities but not the extent to which such potential is expressed. We tested directly the capabilities of heterotrophic microbial communities in surface ocean waters at 32 stations spanning latitudes from 76°S to 79°N to hydrolyze a range of high molecular weight organic substrates and thereby initiate organic matter degradation. These data demonstrate the existence of a latitudinal gradient in the range of complex substrates available to heterotrophic microbial communities, paralleling the global gradient in bacterial species richness. As changing climate increasingly affects the marine environment, changes in the spectrum of substrates accessible by microbial communities may lead to shifts in the location and rate at which marine DOC is respired. Since the inventory of DOC in the ocean is comparable in magnitude to the atmospheric CO2 reservoir, such a change could profoundly affect the global carbon cycle

Pseudomonas Evades Immune Recognition of Flagellin in Both Mammals and Plants

The building blocks of bacterial flagella, flagellin monomers, are potent stimulators of host innate immune systems. Recognition of flagellin monomers occurs by flagellin-specific pattern-recognition receptors, such as Toll-like receptor 5 (TLR5) in mammals and flagellin-sensitive 2 (FLS2) in plants. Activation of these immune systems via flagellin leads eventually to elimination of the bacterium from the host. In order to prevent immune activation and thus favor survival in the host, bacteria secrete many proteins that hamper such recognition. In our search for Toll like receptor (TLR) antagonists, we screened bacterial supernatants and identified alkaline protease (AprA) of Pseudomonas aeruginosa as a TLR5 signaling inhibitor as evidenced by a marked reduction in IL-8 production and NF-κB activation. AprA effectively degrades the TLR5 ligand monomeric flagellin, while polymeric flagellin (involved in bacterial motility) and TLR5 itself resist degradation. The natural occurring alkaline protease inhibitor AprI of P. aeruginosa blocked flagellin degradation by AprA. P. aeruginosa aprA mutants induced an over 100-fold enhanced activation of TLR5 signaling, because they fail to degrade excess monomeric flagellin in their environment. Interestingly, AprA also prevents flagellin-mediated immune responses (such as growth inhibition and callose deposition) in Arabidopsis thaliana plants. This was due to decreased activation of the receptor FLS2 and clearly demonstrated by delayed stomatal closure with live bacteria in plants. Thus, by degrading the ligand for TLR5 and FLS2, P. aeruginosa escapes recognition by the innate immune systems of both mammals and plants

Reconstructing 800 years of summer temperatures in Scotland from tree rings

We thank The Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland for providing funding for Miloš Rydval’s PhD. The Scottish pine network expansion has been an ongoing task since 2007 and funding must be acknowledged to the following projects: EU project ‘Millennium’ (017008-2), Leverhulme Trust project ‘RELiC: Reconstructing 8000 years of Environmental and Landscape change in the Cairngorms (F/00 268/BG)’ and the NERC project ‘SCOT2K: Reconstructing 2000 years of Scottish climate from tree rings (NE/K003097/1)’.This study presents a summer temperature reconstruction using Scots pine tree-ring chronologies for Scotland allowing the placement of current regional temperature changes in a longer-term context. ‘Living-tree’ chronologies were extended using ’subfossil’ samples extracted from nearshore lake sediments resulting in a composite chronology > 800 years in length. The North Cairngorms (NCAIRN) reconstruction was developed from a set of composite blue intensity high-pass and ring-width low-pass chronologies with a range of detrending and disturbance correction procedures. Calibration against July-August mean temperature explains 56.4% of the instrumental data variance over 1866-2009 and is well verified. Spatial correlations reveal strong coherence with temperatures over the British Isles, parts of western Europe, southern Scandinavia and northern parts of the Iberian Peninsula. NCAIRN suggests that the recent summer-time warming in Scotland is likely not unique when compared to multi-decadal warm periods observed in the 1300s, 1500s, and 1730s, although trends before the mid-16th century should be interpreted with some caution due to greater uncertainty. Prominent cold periods were identified from the 16th century until the early 1800s – agreeing with the so-called Little Ice Age observed in other tree-ring reconstructions from Europe - with the 1690s identified as the coldest decade in the record. The reconstruction shows a significant cooling response one year following volcanic eruptions although this result is sensitive to the datasets used to identify such events. In fact, the extreme cold (and warm) years observed in NCAIRN appear more related to internal forcing of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe