Mean first-passage times of non-Markovian random walkers in confinement

The first-passage time (FPT), defined as the time a random walker takes to reach a target point in a confining domain, is a key quantity in the theory of stochastic processes. Its importance comes from its crucial role to quantify the efficiency of processes as varied as diffusion-limited reactions, target search processes or spreading of diseases. Most methods to determine the FPT properties in confined domains have been limited to Markovian (memoryless) processes. However, as soon as the random walker interacts with its environment, memory effects can not be neglected. Examples of non Markovian dynamics include single-file diffusion in narrow channels or the motion of a tracer particle either attached to a polymeric chain or diffusing in simple or complex fluids such as nematics \cite{turiv2013effect}, dense soft colloids or viscoelastic solution. Here, we introduce an analytical approach to calculate, in the limit of a large confining volume, the mean FPT of a Gaussian non-Markovian random walker to a target point. The non-Markovian features of the dynamics are encompassed by determining the statistical properties of the trajectory of the random walker in the future of the first-passage event, which are shown to govern the FPT kinetics.This analysis is applicable to a broad range of stochastic processes, possibly correlated at long-times. Our theoretical predictions are confirmed by numerical simulations for several examples of non-Markovian processes including the emblematic case of the Fractional Brownian Motion in one or higher dimensions. These results show, on the basis of Gaussian processes, the importance of memory effects in first-passage statistics of non-Markovian random walkers in confinement.Comment: Submitted version. Supplementary Information can be found on the Nature website : http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v534/n7607/full/nature18272.htm

A Rydberg Quantum Simulator

Following Feynman and as elaborated on by Lloyd, a universal quantum simulator (QS) is a controlled quantum device which reproduces the dynamics of any other many particle quantum system with short range interactions. This dynamics can refer to both coherent Hamiltonian and dissipative open system evolution. We investigate how laser excited Rydberg atoms in large spacing optical or magnetic lattices can provide an efficient implementation of a universal QS for spin models involving (high order) n-body interactions. This includes the simulation of Hamiltonians of exotic spin models involving n-particle constraints such as the Kitaev toric code, color code, and lattice gauge theories with spin liquid phases. In addition, it provides the ingredients for dissipative preparation of entangled states based on engineering n-particle reservoir couplings. The key basic building blocks of our architecture are efficient and high-fidelity n-qubit entangling gates via auxiliary Rydberg atoms, including a possible dissipative time step via optical pumping. This allows to mimic the time evolution of the system by a sequence of fast, parallel and high-fidelity n-particle coherent and dissipative Rydberg gates.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

Blood pressure variability and cardiovascular risk in the PROspective study of pravastatin in the elderly at risk (PROSPER)

Variability in blood pressure predicts cardiovascular disease in young- and middle-aged subjects, but relevant data for older individuals are sparse. We analysed data from the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) study of 5804 participants aged 70–82 years with a history of, or risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Visit-to-visit variability in blood pressure (standard deviation) was determined using a minimum of five measurements over 1 year; an inception cohort of 4819 subjects had subsequent in-trial 3 years follow-up; longer-term follow-up (mean 7.1 years) was available for 1808 subjects. Higher systolic blood pressure variability independently predicted long-term follow-up vascular and total mortality (hazard ratio per 5 mmHg increase in standard deviation of systolic blood pressure = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.4; hazard ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.2, respectively). Variability in diastolic blood pressure associated with increased risk for coronary events (hazard ratio 1.5, 95% confidence interval 1.2–1.8 for each 5 mmHg increase), heart failure hospitalisation (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.8) and vascular (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.7) and total mortality (hazard ratio 1.3, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.5), all in long-term follow-up. Pulse pressure variability was associated with increased stroke risk (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.4 for each 5 mmHg increase), vascular mortality (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.3) and total mortality (hazard ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.2), all in long-term follow-up. All associations were independent of respective mean blood pressure levels, age, gender, in-trial treatment group (pravastatin or placebo) and prior vascular disease and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Our observations suggest variability in diastolic blood pressure is more strongly associated with vascular or total mortality than is systolic pressure variability in older high-risk subjects

Can Score Databanks Help Teaching?

Basic courses in most medical schools assess students' performance by conferring scores. The objective of this work is to use a large score databank for the early identification of students with low performance and to identify course trends based on the mean of students' grades. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We studied scores from 2,398 medical students registered in courses over a period of 10 years. Students in the first semester were grouped into those whose ratings remained in the lower quartile in two or more courses (low-performance) and students who had up to one course in the lower quartile (high-performance). ROC curves were built, aimed at the identification of a cut-off average score in the first semesters that would be able to predict low performances in future semesters. Moreover, to follow the long-term pattern of each course, the mean of all scores conferred in a semester was compared to the overall course mean obtained by averaging 10 years of data. Individuals in the low-performance group had a higher risk of being in the lower quartile of at least one course in the second semester (relative risk 3.907; 95% CI: 3.378-4.519) and in the eighth semester (relative risk 2.873; 95% CI: 2.495-3.308). The prediction analysis revealed that an average score of 7.188 in the first semester could identify students that presented scores below the lower quartiles in both the second and eighth semesters (p<0.0001 for both AUC). When scores conferred by single courses were compared over time, three time-trend patterns emerged: low variation, upward trend and erratic pattern. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: An early identification of students with low performance may be useful in promoting pedagogical strategies for these individuals. Evaluation of the time trend of scores conferred by courses may help departments monitoring changes in personnel and methodology that may affect a student's performance

Effect of response format for clinical vignettes on reporting quality of physician practice

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Clinical vignettes have been used widely to compare quality of clinical care and to assess variation in practice, but the effect of different response formats has not been extensively evaluated. Our objective was to compare three clinical vignette-based survey response formats – open-ended questionnaire (A), closed-ended (multiple-choice) questionnaire with deceptive response items mixed with correct items (B), and closed-ended questionnaire with only correct items (C) – in rheumatologists' pre-treatment assessment for tumor-necrosis-factor (TNF) blocker therapy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p><b><it>Study design</it></b>: Prospective randomized study. <b><it>Setting</it></b>: Rheumatologists attending the 2004 French Society of Rheumatology meeting. Physicians were given a vignette describing the history of a fictitious woman with active rheumatoid arthritis, who was a candidate for therapy with TNF blocking agents, and then were randomized to receive questionnaire A, B, or C, each containing the same four questions but with different response formats, that asked about their pretreatment assessment. <b><it>Measurements</it></b>: Long (recommended items) and short (mandatory items) checklists were developed for pretreatment assessment for TNF-blocker therapy, and scores were expressed on the basis of responses to questionnaires A, B, and C as the percentage of respondents correctly choosing explicit items on these checklists. <b><it>Statistical analysis</it></b>: Comparison of the selected items using pairwise Chi-square tests with Bonferonni correction for variables with statistically significant differences.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Data for all surveys distributed (114 As, 118 Bs, and 118 Cs) were complete and available for analysis. The percentage of questionnaire A, B, and C respondents for whom data was correctly complete for the short checklist was 50.4%, 84.0% and 95.0%, respectively, and was 0%, 5.0% and 5.9%, respectively, for the long version. As an example, 65.8%, 85.7% and 95.8% of the respondents of A, B, and C questionnaires, respectively, correctly identified the need for tuberculin skin test (p < 0.0001).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In evaluating clinical practice with use of a clinical vignette, a multiple-choice format rather than an open-ended format overestimates physician performance. The insertion of deceptive response items mixed with correct items in closed-ended (multiple-choice) questionnaire failed to avoid this overestimation.</p

Predator Mimicry: Metalmark Moths Mimic Their Jumping Spider Predators

Cases of mimicry provide many of the nature's most convincing examples of natural selection. Here we report evidence for a case of predator mimicry in which metalmark moths in the genus Brenthia mimic jumping spiders, one of their predators. In controlled trials, Brenthia had higher survival rates than other similarly sized moths in the presence of jumping spiders and jumping spiders responded to Brenthia with territorial displays, indicating that Brenthia were sometimes mistaken for jumping spiders, and not recognized as prey. Our experimental results and a review of wing patterns of other insects indicate that jumping spider mimicry is more widespread than heretofore appreciated, and that jumping spiders are probably an important selective pressure shaping the evolution of diurnal insects that perch on vegetation

Key Concepts for Estimating the Burden of Surgical Conditions and the Unmet Need for Surgical Care

Background: Surgical care is emerging as a crucial issue in global public health. Methodology is needed to assess the impact of surgical care from a public health perspective. Methods: A consensus opinion of a group of surgeons, anesthesiologists, and public health experts was established regarding the methodology for estimating the burden of surgical conditions and the unmet need for surgical care. Results: For purposes of analysis, we define surgical conditions as any disease state requiring the expertise of a surgically trained provider. Abnormalities resulting from a surgical condition or its treatment are termed surgical sequelae. Surgical care is defined as any measure that reduces the rates of physical disability or premature death associated with a surgical condition. To measure the burden of surgical conditions and unmet need for surgical care we propose using cumulative disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) curves generated from age-specific population-based data. This conceptual framework is based on the premise that surgically associated disability and death is determined by the incidence of surgical conditions and the quantity and quality of surgical care. The burden of surgical conditions is defined as the total disability and premature deaths that would occur in a population should there be no surgical care; the unmet need for surgical care is defined as the potentially treatable disability and premature deaths due to surgical conditions. Burden of surgical conditions should be expressed as DALYs and unmet need as potential DALYs avertable. Conclusions: Methodology is described for estimating the burden of surgical conditions and unmet need for surgical care. Using this approach it will be feasible to estimate the global burden of surgical conditions and help clarify where surgery fits among other global health priorities. These methods need to be validated using population-based data

Essential function for ErbB3 in breast cancer proliferation

The overexpression of the ErbB family of tyrosine kinase receptors is thought to be important in the development of many breast tumours. To date, most attention has focused on the ErbB2 receptor. Now, in a recent report, it has been shown that ErbB3 is a critical partner for the transforming activity of ErbB2 in breast cancer cells. Importantly, the proliferative signals from this transforming complex appear to act via the PI-3 kinase pathway

A Measurement of Rb using a Double Tagging Method

The fraction of Z to bbbar events in hadronic Z decays has been measured by the OPAL experiment using the data collected at LEP between 1992 and 1995. The Z to bbbar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices, and high momentum electrons and muons. Systematic uncertainties were reduced by measuring the b-tagging efficiency using a double tagging technique. Efficiency correlations between opposite hemispheres of an event are small, and are well understood through comparisons between real and simulated data samples. A value of Rb = 0.2178 +- 0.0011 +- 0.0013 was obtained, where the first error is statistical and the second systematic. The uncertainty on Rc, the fraction of Z to ccbar events in hadronic Z decays, is not included in the errors. The dependence on Rc is Delta(Rb)/Rb = -0.056*Delta(Rc)/Rc where Delta(Rc) is the deviation of Rc from the value 0.172 predicted by the Standard Model. The result for Rb agrees with the value of 0.2155 +- 0.0003 predicted by the Standard Model.Comment: 42 pages, LaTeX, 14 eps figures included, submitted to European Physical Journal

Measurement of the B+ and B-0 lifetimes and search for CP(T) violation using reconstructed secondary vertices

The lifetimes of the B+ and B-0 mesons, and their ratio, have been measured in the OPAL experiment using 2.4 million hadronic Z(0) decays recorded at LEP. Z(0) --> b (b) over bar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices and high momentum electrons and muons. The lifetimes were then measured using well-reconstructed charged and neutral secondary vertices selected in this tagged data sample. The results aretau(B+) = 1.643 +/- 0.037 +/- 0.025 pstau(Bo) = 1.523 +/- 0.057 +/- 0.053 pstau(B+)/tau(Bo) = 1.079 +/- 0.064 +/- 0.041,where in each case the first error is statistical and the second systematic.A larger data sample of 3.1 million hadronic Z(o) decays has been used to search for CP and CPT violating effects by comparison of inclusive b and (b) over bar hadron decays, No evidence fur such effects is seen. The CP violation parameter Re(epsilon(B)) is measured to be Re(epsilon(B)) = 0.001 +/- 0.014 +/- 0.003and the fractional difference between b and (b) over bar hadron lifetimes is measured to(Delta tau/tau)(b) = tau(b hadron) - tau((b) over bar hadron)/tau(average) = -0.001 +/- 0.012 +/- 0.008