A Biological Model for Influenza Transmission: Pandemic Planning Implications of Asymptomatic Infection and Immunity

Background: The clinical attack rate of influenza is influenced by prior immunity and mixing patterns in the host population, and also by the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic. This complexity makes it difficult to directly estimate R0 from the attack rate, contributing to uncertainty in epidemiological models to guide pandemic planning. We have modelled multiple wave outbreaks of influenza from different populations to allow for changing immunity and asymptomatic infection and to make inferences about R0. \ud \ud Data and Methods. On the island of Tristan da Cunha (TdC), 96% of residents reported illness during an H3N2 outbreak in 1971, compared with only 25% of RAF personnel in military camps during the 1918 H1N1 pandemic. Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) methods were used to estimate model parameter distributions. \ud \ud Findings. We estimated that most islanders on TdC were non-immune (susceptible) before the first wave, and that almost all exposures of susceptible persons caused symptoms. The median R0 of 6.4 (95% credibility interval 3.7–10.7) implied that most islanders were exposed twice, although only a minority became ill in the second wave because of temporary protection following the first wave. In contrast, only 51% of RAF personnel were susceptible before the first wave, and only 38% of exposed susceptibles reported symptoms. R0 in this population was also lower [2.9 (2.3–4.3)], suggesting reduced viral transmission in a partially immune population. \ud \ud Interpretation: Our model implies that the RAF population was partially protected before the summer pandemic wave of 1918, arguably because of prior exposure to interpandemic influenza. Without such protection, each symptomatic case of influenza would transmit to between 2 and 10 new cases, with incidence initially doubling every 1–2 days. Containment of a novel virus could be more difficult than hitherto supposed

Prior immunity helps to explain wave-like behaviour of pandemic influenza in 1918-9

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The ecology of influenza may be more complex than is usually assumed. For example, despite multiple waves in the influenza pandemic of 1918-19, many people in urban locations were apparently unaffected. Were they unexposed, or protected by pre-existing cross-immunity in the first wave, by acquired immunity in later waves, or were their infections asymptomatic?</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We modelled all these possibilities to estimate parameters to best explain patterns of repeat attacks in 24,706 individuals potentially exposed to summer, autumn and winter waves in 12 English populations during the 1918-9 pandemic.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Before the summer wave, we estimated that only 52% of persons (95% credibility estimates 41-66%) were susceptible, with the remainder protected by prior immunity. Most people were exposed, as virus transmissibility was high with R₀credibility estimates of 3.10-6.74. Because of prior immunity, estimates of effective R at the start of the summer wave were lower at 1.57-3.96. Only 25-66% of exposed and susceptible persons reported symptoms. After each wave, 33-65% of protected persons became susceptible again before the next wave through waning immunity or antigenic drift. Estimated rates of prior immunity were less in younger populations (19-59%) than in adult populations (38-66%), and tended to lapse more frequently in the young (49-92%) than in adults (34-76%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our model for pandemic influenza in 1918-9 suggests that pre-existing immune protection, presumably induced by prior exposure to seasonal influenza, may have limited the pandemic attack-rate in urban populations, while the waning of that protection likely contributed to recurrence of pandemic waves in exposed cities. In contrast, in isolated populations, pandemic attack rates in 1918-9 were much higher than in cities, presumably because prior immunity was less in populations with infrequent prior exposure to seasonal influenza. Although these conclusions cannot be verified by direct measurements of historical immune mechanisms, our modelling inferences from 1918-9 suggest that the spread of the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic has also been limited by immunity from prior exposure to seasonal influenza. Components of that immunity, which are measurable, may be short-lived, and not necessarily correlated with levels of HI antibody.</p

Genetic aspects of dental disorders

The document attached has been archived with permission from the Australian Dental Association. An external link to the publisher’s copy is included.This paper reviews past and present applications of quantitative and molecular genetics to dental disorders. Examples are given relating to craniofacial development (including malocclusion), oral supporting tissues (including periodontal diseases) and dental hard tissues (including defects of enamel and dentine as well as dental caries). Future developments and applications to clinical dentistry are discussed. Early investigations confirmed genetic bases to dental caries, periodontal diseases and malocclusion, but research findings have had little impact on clinical practice. The complex multifactorial aetiologies of these conditions, together with methodological problems, have limited progress until recently. Present studies are clarifying previously unrecognized genetic and phenotypic heterogeneities and attempting to unravel the complex interactions between genes and environment by applying new statistical modelling approaches to twin and family data. linkage studies using highly polymorphic DNA markers are providing a means of locating candidate genes, including quantitative trait loci (QTL). In future, as knowledge increases: it should be possible to implement preventive strategies for those genetically-predisposed individuals who are identified-predisposed individuals who are identified to be at risk.Grant C. Townsend, Michael J. Aldred and P. Mark Bartol

Revealing the Functions of the Transketolase Enzyme Isoforms in Rhodopseudomonas palustris Using a Systems Biology Approach

BACKGROUND: Rhodopseudomonas palustris (R. palustris) is a purple non-sulfur anoxygenic phototrophic bacterium that belongs to the class of proteobacteria. It is capable of absorbing atmospheric carbon dioxide and converting it to biomass via the process of photosynthesis and the Calvin-Benson-Bassham (CBB) cycle. Transketolase is a key enzyme involved in the CBB cycle. Here, we reveal the functions of transketolase isoforms I and II in R. palustris using a systems biology approach. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: By measuring growth ability, we found that transketolase could enhance the autotrophic growth and biomass production of R. palustris. Microarray and real-time quantitative PCR revealed that transketolase isoforms I and II were involved in different carbon metabolic pathways. In addition, immunogold staining demonstrated that the two transketolase isoforms had different spatial localizations: transketolase I was primarily associated with the intracytoplasmic membrane (ICM) but transketolase II was mostly distributed in the cytoplasm. Comparative proteomic analysis and network construction of transketolase over-expression and negative control (NC) strains revealed that protein folding, transcriptional regulation, amino acid transport and CBB cycle-associated carbon metabolism were enriched in the transketolase I over-expressed strain. In contrast, ATP synthesis, carbohydrate transport, glycolysis-associated carbon metabolism and CBB cycle-associated carbon metabolism were enriched in the transketolase II over-expressed strain. Furthermore, ATP synthesis assays showed a significant increase in ATP synthesis in the transketolase II over-expressed strain. A PEPCK activity assay showed that PEPCK activity was higher in transketolase over-expressed strains than in the negative control strain. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Taken together, our results indicate that the two isoforms of transketolase in R. palustris could affect photoautotrophic growth through both common and divergent metabolic mechanisms

Sterility and Gene Expression in Hybrid Males of Xenopus laevis and X. muelleri

BACKGROUND: Reproductive isolation is a defining characteristic of populations that represent unique biological species, yet we know very little about the gene expression basis for reproductive isolation. The advent of powerful molecular biology tools provides the ability to identify genes involved in reproductive isolation and focuses attention on the molecular mechanisms that separate biological species. Herein we quantify the sterility pattern of hybrid males in African Clawed Frogs (Xenopus) and apply microarray analysis of the expression pattern found in testes to identify genes that are misexpressed in hybrid males relative to their two parental species (Xenopus laevis and X. muelleri). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Phenotypic characteristics of spermatogenesis in sterile male hybrids (X. laevis x X. muelleri) were examined using a novel sperm assay that allowed quantification of live, dead, and undifferentiated sperm cells, the number of motile vs. immotile sperm, and sperm morphology. Hybrids exhibited a dramatically lower abundance of mature sperm relative to the parental species. Hybrid spermatozoa were larger in size and accompanied by numerous undifferentiated sperm cells. Microarray analysis of gene expression in testes was combined with a correction for sequence divergence derived from genomic hybridizations to identify candidate genes involved in the sterility phenotype. Analysis of the transcriptome revealed a striking asymmetric pattern of misexpression. There were only about 140 genes misexpressed in hybrids compared to X. laevis but nearly 4,000 genes misexpressed in hybrids compared to X. muelleri. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results provide an important correlation between phenotypic characteristics of sperm and gene expression in sterile hybrid males. The broad pattern of gene misexpression suggests intriguing mechanisms creating the dominance pattern of the X. laevis genome in hybrids. These findings significantly contribute to growing evidence for allelic dominance in hybrids and have implications for the mechanism of species differentiation at the transcriptome level

Measurement and interpretation of same-sign W boson pair production in association with two jets in pp collisions at s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents the measurement of fducial and diferential cross sections for both the inclusive and electroweak production of a same-sign W-boson pair in association with two jets (W±W±jj) using 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data recorded at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 13 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The analysis is performed by selecting two same-charge leptons, electron or muon, and at least two jets with large invariant mass and a large rapidity diference. The measured fducial cross sections for electroweak and inclusive W±W±jj production are 2.92 ± 0.22 (stat.) ± 0.19 (syst.)fb and 3.38±0.22 (stat.)±0.19 (syst.)fb, respectively, in agreement with Standard Model predictions. The measurements are used to constrain anomalous quartic gauge couplings by extracting 95% confdence level intervals on dimension-8 operators. A search for doubly charged Higgs bosons H±± that are produced in vector-boson fusion processes and decay into a same-sign W boson pair is performed. The largest deviation from the Standard Model occurs for an H±± mass near 450 GeV, with a global signifcance of 2.5 standard deviations

Combination of searches for heavy spin-1 resonances using 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A combination of searches for new heavy spin-1 resonances decaying into different pairings of W, Z, or Higgs bosons, as well as directly into leptons or quarks, is presented. The data sample used corresponds to 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at = 13 TeV collected during 2015–2018 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Analyses selecting quark pairs (qq, bb, , and tb) or third-generation leptons (τν and ττ) are included in this kind of combination for the first time. A simplified model predicting a spin-1 heavy vector-boson triplet is used. Cross-section limits are set at the 95% confidence level and are compared with predictions for the benchmark model. These limits are also expressed in terms of constraints on couplings of the heavy vector-boson triplet to quarks, leptons, and the Higgs boson. The complementarity of the various analyses increases the sensitivity to new physics, and the resulting constraints are stronger than those from any individual analysis considered. The data exclude a heavy vector-boson triplet with mass below 5.8 TeV in a weakly coupled scenario, below 4.4 TeV in a strongly coupled scenario, and up to 1.5 TeV in the case of production via vector-boson fusion