Study on the combined threshold for gully-type debris flow early warning

Gully-type debris flow induced by high-intensity and short-duration rainfall frequently causes great loss of properties and causalities in mountainous regions of southwest China. In order to reduce the risk by geohazards, early warning systems have been provided. A triggering index can be detected in an early stage by the monitoring of rainfall and the changes in physical properties of the deposited materials along debris flow channels. Based on the method of critical pore pressure for slope stability analysis, this study presents critical pore pressure threshold in combination with rainfall factors for gully-type debris flow early warning. The Wenjia gully, which contains an enormous amount of loose material, was selected as a case study to reveal the relationship between the rainfall and pore pressure by field monitoring data. A three-level early warning system (zero, attention, and warning) is adopted and the corresponding judgement conditions are defined in real time. Based on this threshold, there are several rainfall events in recent years have been validated in Wenjia gully, which prove that such a combined threshold may be a reliable approach for the early warning of gully-type debris flow to safeguard the population in the mountainous areas.</p

The application of numerical debris flow modelling for the generation of physical vulnerability curves

For a quantitative assessment of debris flow risk, it is essential to consider not only the hazardous process itself but also to perform an analysis of its consequences. This should include the estimation of the expected monetary losses as the product of the hazard with a given magnitude and the vulnerability of the elements exposed. A quantifiable integrated approach of both hazard and vulnerability is becoming a required practice in risk reduction management. This study aims at developing physical vulnerability curves for debris flows through the use of a dynamic run-out model. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to calculate physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk could suffer an impact. These results can then be applied to consequence analyses and risk calculations. On 13 July 2008, after more than two days of intense rainfall, several debris and mud flows were released in the central part of the Valtellina Valley (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy). One of the largest debris flows events occurred in a village called Selvetta. The debris flow event was reconstructed after extensive field work and interviews with local inhabitants and civil protection teams. The Selvetta event was modelled with the FLO-2D program, an Eulerian formulation with a finite differences numerical scheme that requires the specification of an input hydrograph. The internal stresses are isotropic and the basal shear stresses are calculated using a quadratic model. The behaviour and run-out of the flow was reconstructed. The significance of calculated values of the flow depth, velocity, and pressure were investigated in terms of the resulting damage to the affected buildings. The physical damage was quantified for each affected structure within the context of physical vulnerability, which was calculated as the ratio between the monetary loss and the reconstruction value. Three different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained, which are functions of debris flow depth, impact pressure, and kinematic viscosity, respectively. A quantitative approach to estimate the vulnerability of an exposed element to a debris flow which can be independent of the temporal occurrence of the hazard event is presented

Antiseizure medication withdrawal risk estimation and recommendations: A survey of American Academy of Neurology and EpiCARE members

Objective Choosing candidates for antiseizure medication (ASM) withdrawal in well‐controlled epilepsy is challenging. We evaluated (a) the correlation between neurologists' seizure risk estimation (“clinician predictions”) vs calculated predictions, (b) how viewing calculated predictions influenced recommendations, and (c) barriers to using risk calculation.MethodsWe asked US and European neurologists to predict 2‐year seizure risk after ASM withdrawal for hypothetical vignettes. We compared ASM withdrawal recommendations before vs after viewing calculated predictions, using generalized linear models. Results Three‐hundred and forty‐six neurologists responded. There was moderate correlation between clinician and calculated predictions (Spearman coefficient 0.42). Clinician predictions varied widely, for example, predictions ranged 5%‐100% for a 2‐year seizure‐free adult without epileptiform abnormalities. Mean clinician predictions exceeded calculated predictions for vignettes with epileptiform abnormalities (eg, childhood absence epilepsy: clinician 65%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 57%‐74%; calculated 46%) and surgical vignettes (eg, focal cortical dysplasia 6‐month seizure‐free mean clinician 56%, 95% CI 52%‐60%; calculated 28%). Clinicians overestimated the influence of epileptiform EEG findings on withdrawal risk (26%, 95% CI 24%‐28%) compared with calculators (14%, 95% 13%‐14%). Viewing calculated predictions slightly reduced willingness to withdraw (−0.8/10 change, 95% CI −1.0 to −0.7), particularly for vignettes without epileptiform abnormalities. The greatest barrier to calculator use was doubting its accuracy (44%). Significance Clinicians overestimated the influence of abnormal EEGs particularly for low‐risk patients and overestimated risk and the influence of seizure‐free duration for surgical patients, compared with calculators. These data may question widespread ordering of EEGs or time‐based seizure‐free thresholds for surgical patients. Viewing calculated predictions reduced willingness to withdraw particularly without epileptiform abnormalities

Interacting effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation on drought-sensitive butterflies

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of some climatic extremes. These may have drastic impacts on biodiversity, particularly if meteorological thresholds are crossed, leading to population collapses. Should this occur repeatedly, populations may be unable to recover, resulting in local extinctions. Comprehensive time series data on butterflies in Great Britain provide a rare opportunity to quantify population responses to both past severe drought and the interaction with habitat area and fragmentation. Here, we combine this knowledge with future projections from multiple climate models, for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and for simultaneous modelled responses to different landscape characteristics. Under RCP8.5, which is associated with ‘business as usual’ emissions, widespread drought-sensitive butterfly population extinctions could occur as early as 2050. However, by managing landscapes and particularly reducing habitat fragmentation, the probability of persistence until mid-century improves from around zero to between 6 and 42% (95% confidence interval). Achieving persistence with a greater than 50% chance and right through to 2100 is possible only under both low climate change (RCP2.6) and semi-natural habitat restoration. Our data show that, for these drought-sensitive butterflies, persistence is achieved more effectively by restoring semi-natural landscapes to reduce fragmentation, rather than simply focusing on increasing habitat area, but this will only be successful in combination with substantial emission reductions

Radio Emission in Atmospheric Air Showers: First Measurements with LOPES-30

When Ultra High Energy Cosmic Rays interact with particles in the Earth's atmosphere, they produce a shower of secondary particles propagating toward the ground. LOPES-30 is an absolutely calibrated array of 30 dipole antennas investigating the radio emission from these showers in detail and clarifying if the technique is useful for largescale applications. LOPES-30 is co-located and measures in coincidence with the air shower experiment KASCADE-Grande. Status of LOPES-30 and first measurements are presented.Comment: Proceedings of ARENA 06, June 2006, University of Northumbria, U

Radio emission of highly inclined cosmic ray air showers measured with LOPES

LOPES (LOFAR Prototype Station) is an array of dipole antennas used for detection of radio emission from air showers. It is co-located and triggered by the KASCADE (Karlsruhe Shower Core and Array Detector) experiment, which also provides informations about air shower properties. Even though neither LOPES nor KASCADE are completely optimized for the detection of highly inclined events, a significant number of showers with zenith angle larger than 50$^o$ have been detected in the radio domain, and many with very high field strengths. Investigation of inclined showers can give deeper insight into the nature of primary particles that initiate showers and also into the possibility that some of detected showers are triggered by neutrinos. In this paper, we show the example of such an event and present some of the characteristics of highly inclined showers detected by LOPES

Frequency spectra of cosmic ray air shower radio emission measured with LOPES

AIMS: We wish to study the spectral dependence of the radio emission from cosmic-ray air showers around 100 PeV (1017 eV). METHODS: We observe short radio pulses in a broad frequency band with the dipole-interferometer LOPES (LOFAR Prototype Station), which is triggered by a particle detector array named Karlsruhe Shower Core and Array Detector (KASCADE). LOFAR is the Low Frequency Array. For this analysis, 23 strong air shower events are selected using parameters from KASCADE. RESULTS: The resulting electric field spectra fall off to higher frequencies. An average electric field spectrum is fitted with an exponential, or alternatively, with a power law. The spectral slope obtained is not consistent within uncertainties and it is slightly steeper than the slope obtained from Monte Carlo simulations based on air showers simulated with CORSIKA (Cosmic Ray Simulations for KASCADE). One of the strongest events was measured during thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of LOPES and shows the longest pulse length measured of 110 ns and a spectral slope of -3.6. CONCLUSIONS: We show with two different methods that frequency spectra from air shower radio emission can be reconstructed on event-by-event basis, with only two dozen dipole antennae simultaneously over a broad range of frequencies. According to the obtained spectral slopes, the maximum power is emitted below 40 MHz. Furthermore, the decrease in power to higher frequencies indicates a loss in coherence determined by the shower disc thickness. We conclude that a broader bandwidth, larger collecting area, and longer baselines, as will be provided by LOFAR, are necessary to further investigate the relation of the coherence, pulse length, and spectral slope of cosmic ray air showers.Comment: 13 pages, 21 figures. Nigl, A. et al. (LOPES Collaboration), Frequency spectra of cosmic ray air shower radio emission measured with LOPES, accepted by A&A on 17/06/200

Radio detection of cosmic ray air showers with LOPES

In the last few years, radio detection of cosmic ray air showers has experienced a true renaissance, becoming manifest in a number of new experiments and simulation efforts. In particular, the LOPES project has successfully implemented modern interferometric methods to measure the radio emission from extensive air showers. LOPES has confirmed that the emission is coherent and of geomagnetic origin, as expected by the geosynchrotron mechanism, and has demonstrated that a large scale application of the radio technique has great potential to complement current measurements of ultra-high energy cosmic rays. We describe the current status, most recent results and open questions regarding radio detection of cosmic rays and give an overview of ongoing research and development for an application of the radio technique in the framework of the Pierre Auger Observatory.Comment: 8 pages; Proceedings of the CRIS2006 conference, Catania, Italy; to be published in Nuclear Physics B, Proceedings Supplement

Cause-of-Death Contributions to Educational Inequalities in Mortality in Austria between 1981/1982 and 1991/1992: Les contributions des causes de décès aux inégalités de mortalité par niveau d’éducation en Autriche entre 1981/1982 et 1991/1992

This article uses census records and deaths records to analyze trends in educational inequalities in mortality for Austrian women and men aged 35–64 years between 1981/1982 and 1991/1992. We find an increasing gradient in mortality by education for circulatory diseases and especially ischaemic heart disease. Respiratory diseases and, in addition for women, cancers showed the opposite trend. Using decomposition analysis, we give evidence that in many cases changes in the age-structure within the 10-year interval had a bigger effect than direct improvements in mortality on the analyzed subpopulations