Semiparametric inference in mixture models with predictive recursion marginal likelihood

Predictive recursion is an accurate and computationally efficient algorithm for nonparametric estimation of mixing densities in mixture models. In semiparametric mixture models, however, the algorithm fails to account for any uncertainty in the additional unknown structural parameter. As an alternative to existing profile likelihood methods, we treat predictive recursion as a filter approximation to fitting a fully Bayes model, whereby an approximate marginal likelihood of the structural parameter emerges and can be used for inference. We call this the predictive recursion marginal likelihood. Convergence properties of predictive recursion under model mis-specification also lead to an attractive construction of this new procedure. We show pointwise convergence of a normalized version of this marginal likelihood function. Simulations compare the performance of this new marginal likelihood approach that of existing profile likelihood methods as well as Dirichlet process mixtures in density estimation. Mixed-effects models and an empirical Bayes multiple testing application in time series analysis are also considered

Risk based bridge data collection and asset management and the role of structural health monitoring

Peer reviewedPostprin

HypTrails: A Bayesian Approach for Comparing Hypotheses About Human Trails on the Web

When users interact with the Web today, they leave sequential digital trails on a massive scale. Examples of such human trails include Web navigation, sequences of online restaurant reviews, or online music play lists. Understanding the factors that drive the production of these trails can be useful for e.g., improving underlying network structures, predicting user clicks or enhancing recommendations. In this work, we present a general approach called HypTrails for comparing a set of hypotheses about human trails on the Web, where hypotheses represent beliefs about transitions between states. Our approach utilizes Markov chain models with Bayesian inference. The main idea is to incorporate hypotheses as informative Dirichlet priors and to leverage the sensitivity of Bayes factors on the prior for comparing hypotheses with each other. For eliciting Dirichlet priors from hypotheses, we present an adaption of the so-called (trial) roulette method. We demonstrate the general mechanics and applicability of HypTrails by performing experiments with (i) synthetic trails for which we control the mechanisms that have produced them and (ii) empirical trails stemming from different domains including website navigation, business reviews and online music played. Our work expands the repertoire of methods available for studying human trails on the Web.Comment: Published in the proceedings of WWW'1

In vitro antimicrobial susceptibility patterns of Blastocystis

Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved. Blastocystis is the most common human enteric protist with controversial clinical significance. Metronidazole is considered a first-line treatment for Blastocystis infection; however, there has been increasing evidence for the lack of efficacy of this treatment. Treatment failure has been reported in several clinical cases, and recent in vitro studies have suggested the occurrence of metronidazole-resistant strains. In this study, we tested 12 Blastocystis isolates from 4 common Blastocystis subtypes (ST1, ST3, ST4, and ST8) against 12 commonly used antimicrobials (metronidazole, paromomycin, ornidazole, albendazole, ivermectin, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole [TMP-SMX], furazolidone, nitazoxanide, secnidazole, fluconazole, nystatin, and itraconazole) at 10 different concentrations in vitro. It was found that each subtype showed little sensitivity to the commonly used metronidazole, paromomycin, and triple therapy (furazolidone, nitazoxanide, and secnidazole). This study highlights the efficacy of other potential drug treatments, including trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole and ivermectin, and suggests that current treatment regimens be revised

Magnetic phase diagram of the frustrated S=1/2 chain magnet LiCu_2O_2

We present the results of the magnetization and dielectric constant measurements on untwinned single crystal samples of the frustrated S=1/2 chain cuprate LiCu_2O_2. Novel magnetic phase transitions were observed. A spin flop transition of the spiral spin plane was observed for the field orientations H||a,b. The second magnetic transition was observed at H~15 T for all three principal field directions. This high field magnetic phase is discussed as a collinear spin-modulated phase which is expected for an S=1/2 nearest-neighbor ferromagnetic and next-nearest-neighbor antiferromagnetic chain system

Parasite infections in a social carnivore: Evidence of their fitness consequences and factors modulating infection load

There are substantial individual differences in parasite composition and infection load in wildlife populations. Few studies have investigated the factors shaping this heterogeneity in large wild mammals or the impact of parasite infections on Darwinian fitness, particularly in juveniles. A host's parasite composition and infection load can be shaped by factors that determine contact with infective parasite stages and those that determine the host's resistance to infection, such as abiotic and social environmental factors, and age. Host–parasite interactions and synergies between coinfecting parasites may also be important. We test predictions derived from these different processes to investigate factors shaping infection loads (fecal egg/oocyte load) of two energetically costly gastrointestinal parasites: the hookworm Ancylostoma and the intracellular Cystoisospora, in juvenile spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta) in the Serengeti National Park, in Tanzania. We also assess whether parasite infections curtail survival to adulthood and longevity. Ancylostoma and Cystoisospora infection loads declined as the number of adult clan members increased, a result consistent with an encounter‐reduction effect whereby adults reduced encounters between juveniles and infective larvae, but were not affected by the number of juveniles in a clan. Infection loads decreased with age, possibly because active immune responses to infection improved with age. Differences in parasite load between clans possibly indicate variation in abiotic environmental factors between clan den sites. The survival of juveniles (<365 days old) to adulthood decreased with Ancylostoma load, increased with age, and was modulated by maternal social status. High‐ranking individuals with low Ancylostoma loads had a higher survivorship during the first 4 years of life than high‐ranking individuals with high Ancylostoma loads. These findings suggest that high infection loads with energetically costly parasites such as hookworms during early life can have negative fitness consequences

Chaotic and pseudochaotic attractors of perturbed fractional oscillator

We consider a nonlinear oscillator with fractional derivative of the order alpha. Perturbed by a periodic force, the system exhibits chaotic motion called fractional chaotic attractor (FCA). The FCA is compared to the ``regular'' chaotic attractor. The properties of the FCA are discussed and the ``pseudochaotic'' case is demonstrated.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figure

Deployable-erectable trade study for space station truss structures

The results of a trade study on truss structures for constructing the space station are presented. Although this study was conducted for the reference gravity gradient space station, the results are generally applicable to other configurations. The four truss approaches for constructing the space station considered in this paper were the 9 foot single fold deployable, the 15 foot erectable, the 10 foot double fold tetrahedral, and the 15 foot PACTRUSS. The primary rational for considering a 9 foot single-fold deployable truss (9 foot is the largest uncollapsed cross-section that will fit in the Shuttle cargo bay) is that of ease of initial on-orbit construction and preintegration of utility lines and subsystems. The primary rational for considering the 15 foot erectable truss is that the truss bay size will accommodate Shuttle size payloads and growth of the initial station in any dimension is a simple extension of the initial construction process. The primary rational for considering the double-fold 10 foot tetrahedral truss is that a relatively large amount of truss structure can be deployed from a single Shuttle flight to provide a large number of nodal attachments which present a pegboard for attaching a wide variety of payloads. The 15 foot double-fold PACTRUSS was developed to incorporate the best features of the erectable truss and the tetrahedral truss

The Threat of Multiâ Year Drought in Western Amazonia

Recent â onceâ inâ aâ centuryâ Amazonian droughts highlight the impacts of drought and climate change on this region’s vegetation, carbon storage, water cycling, biodiversity, land use, and economy. The latest climate model simulations suggest this region will experience worsening future drought. However, the instrumental record is too short to quantify the range of background drought variability, or to evaluate extended drought risk in climate models. To overcome these limitations, we generated a new, highly resolved lake record of hydroclimatic variability within the western Amazon Basin. We find that Amazonia has regularly experienced multiâ year droughts over the last millennium. Our results indicate that current climate model simulations likely underestimate the background risk of multiâ year Amazonian drought. These findings illustrate that the future sustainability of the Amazonian forest and its many services may require management strategies that consider the likelihood of multiâ year droughts superimposed on a continued warming trend.Plain Language SummaryThe Amazon basin recently experienced multiple â onceâ inâ aâ centuryâ droughts that impacted the region’s water cycle, economy, vegetation, and carbon storage. However, the instrumental record in this region tends to be too short to determine if these droughts are abnormal in a longâ term context. Paleoclimate data can extend drought records that help water and land managers plan for these events in the face of climate change. To provide additional information about preâ instrumental drought, here we present results from a new paleoclimate lake record based on sediments we recovered from Lake Limón in the Peruvian Amazon. We find that concentrations of elements in the Lake Limón sediment cores are likely recording past changes in rainfall variability. We use this elemental variability to generate a new, millennialâ length record of drought for the western Amazon. We show that this region has experienced multiâ year droughts at least twice a century over the last â ¼1,400 years. The frequency and severity of these paleoclimateâ inferred droughts may exceed most climate model and instrumentalâ era drought risk estimates. Our findings illustrate that the future sustainability of the Amazonian forest and its many ecosystem services may require management strategies that consider the likelihood of multiâ year droughts in addition to continued warming.Key PointsWe present results from a highâ resolution paleoclimate record of hydroclimatic variability in western AmazoniaOur paleoclimate record suggests western Amazonia has regularly experienced multiâ year drought over the last millenniumEarth system model simulations may underestimate the background risk of multiâ year western Amazonian droughtPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146272/1/wrcr23386_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146272/2/wrcr23386.pd