Predictors of 1-year survival in South African transcatheter aortic valve implant candidates

Background. Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has undergone rapid expansion internationally over the past 15 years. In view of resource constraints in developing countries, a major challenge in applying this technology lies in identifying patients most likely to benefit. The development of a risk prediction model for TAVI has proved elusive, with a reported area under the curve (AUC) of 0.6 - 0.65. The available models were developed in a First-World setting and may not be applicable to South Africa (SA).Objectives. To evaluate novel indicators and to develop a TAVI risk prediction model unique to the SA context. The current work represents the important initial steps of derivation cohort risk model development and internal validation.Methods. Seven-year experience with 244 successive TAVI implants in three centres in Western Cape Province, SA, was used to derive risk parameters. All outcomes are reported in accordance with the Valve Academic Research Consortium definitions. Multiple preprocedural variables were assessed for their impact on 1-year survival using univariate and multivariate models.Results. Factors found not to correlate with 1-year survival included age, renal function and aortic valve gradients. The commonly used surgical risk prediction models (Society of Thoracic Surgeons score and EuroSCORE) showed no correlation with outcomes. Factors found to correlate best with 1-year survival on multivariate analysis were preprocedural body mass index (BMI) (favouring higher BMI), preprocedural left ventricular end-diastolic dimension (LVED) and ejection fraction (EF) (favouring smaller LVED and higher EF), absence of atrial fibrillation, and three novel parameters: independent living, ability to drive a car, and independent food acquisition/cooking. Discriminant analysis of these factors yielded an AUC of 0.8 (95% confidence interval 0.7 - 0.9) to predict 1-year survival, with resubstitution sensitivities and specificities of 72% and 71%, respectively.Conclusions. Apart from existing predictors, we identified three novel risk predictors (independent living, ability to drive a car, and independent food acquisition/cooking) for 1-year survival in TAVI candidates. These novel parameters performed well in this early evaluation, with an AUC for predicting 1-year survival higher than the AUCs for many of the internationally derived parameters. The parameters are inexpensive and easy to obtain at the initial patient visit. If validated prospectively in external cohorts, they may be applicable to other resource-constrained environments.

Eureka and beyond: mining's impact on African urbanisation

This collection brings separate literatures on mining and urbanisation together at a time when both artisanal and large-scale mining are expanding in many African economies. While much has been written about contestation over land and mineral rights, the impact of mining on settlement, notably its catalytic and fluctuating effects on migration and urban growth, has been largely ignored. African nation-states’ urbanisation trends have shown considerable variation over the past half century. The current surge in ‘new’ mining countries and the slow-down in ‘old’ mining countries are generating some remarkable settlement patterns and welfare outcomes. Presently, the African continent is a laboratory of national mining experiences. This special issue on African mining and urbanisation encompasses a wide cross-section of country case studies: beginning with the historical experiences of mining in Southern Africa (South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe), followed by more recent mineralizing trends in comparatively new mineral-producing countries (Tanzania) and an established West African gold producer (Ghana), before turning to the influence of conflict minerals (Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sierra Leone)

The Social and Political Dimensions of the Ebola Response: Global Inequality, Climate Change, and Infectious Disease

The 2014 Ebola crisis has highlighted public-health vulnerabilities in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea – countries ravaged by extreme poverty, deforestation and mining-related disruption of livelihoods and ecosystems, and bloody civil wars in the cases of Liberia and Sierra Leone. Ebola’s emergence and impact are grounded in the legacy of colonialism and its creation of enduring inequalities within African nations and globally, via neoliberalism and the Washington Consensus. Recent experiences with new and emerging diseases such as SARS and various strains of HN influenzas have demonstrated the effectiveness of a coordinated local and global public health and education-oriented response to contain epidemics. To what extent is international assistance to fight Ebola strengthening local public health and medical capacity in a sustainable way, so that other emerging disease threats, which are accelerating with climate change, may be met successfully? This chapter considers the wide-ranging socio-political, medical, legal and environmental factors that have contributed to the rapid spread of Ebola, with particular emphasis on the politics of the global and public health response and the role of gender, social inequality, colonialism and racism as they relate to the mobilization and establishment of the public health infrastructure required to combat Ebola and other emerging diseases in times of climate change

Circum-Antarctic Coastal Environmental Shifts During the Late Quaternary Reflected by Emerged Marine Deposits

This review assesses the circumpolar occurrence of emerged marine macrofossils and sediments from Antarctic coastal areas in relation to Late Quaternary climate changes. Radiocarbon ages of the macrofossils, which are interpreted in view of the complexities of the Antarctic marine radiocarbon reservoir and resolution of this dating technique, show a bimodal distribution. The data indicate that marine species inhabited coastal environments from at least 35000 to 20000 yr sp, during Marine Isotope Stage 3 when extensive iceberg calving created a \u27meltwater lid\u27 over the Southern Ocean. The general absence of these marine species from 20000 to 8500 yr sp coincides with the subsequent advance of the Antarctic ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum. Synchronous re-appearance of the Antarctic marine fossils in emerged beaches around the continent, all of wh ich have Holocene marine-limit elevations an order of magnitude lower than those in the Arctic, reflect minimal isostatic rebound as relative sea-level rise decelerated. Antarctic coastal marine habitat changes around the continent also coincided with increasing sea-ice extent and outlet glacial advances during the mid-Holocene. in view of the diverse environmental changes that occurred around the Earth during this period, it is suggested that Antarctic coastal areas were responding to a mid-Holocene climatic shift associated with the hydrological cycle. This synthesis of Late Quaternary emerged marine deposits demonstrates the application of evaluating circum-Antarctic phenomena from the glacial-terrestrial-marine transition zone

Intracoronary versus intravenous abciximab in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: rationale and design of the CICERO trial in patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention with thrombus aspiration

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Administration of abciximab during primary percutaneous coronary intervention is an effective adjunctive therapy in the treatment of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Recent small-scaled studies have suggested that intracoronary administration of abciximab during primary percutaneous coronary intervention is superior to conventional intravenous administration. This study has been designed to investigate whether intracoronary bolus administration of abciximab is more effective than intravenous bolus administration in improving myocardial perfusion in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention with thrombus aspiration.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The Comparison of IntraCoronary versus intravenous abciximab administration during Emergency Reperfusion Of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (CICERO) trial is a single-center, prospective, randomized open-label trial with blinded evaluation of endpoints. A total of 530 patients with STEMI undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention are randomly assigned to either an intracoronary or intravenous bolus of weight-adjusted abciximab. The primary end point is the incidence of >70% ST-segment elevation resolution. Secondary end points consist of post-procedural residual ST-segment deviation, myocardial blush grade, distal embolization, enzymatic infarct size, in-hospital bleeding, and clinical outcome at 30 days and 1 year.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The CICERO trial is the first clinical trial to date to verify the effect of intracoronary versus intravenous administration of abciximab on myocardial perfusion in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention with thrombus aspiration.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00927615</p

Baseline characteristics of patients in the reduction of events with darbepoetin alfa in heart failure trial (RED-HF)

&lt;p&gt;Aims: This report describes the baseline characteristics of patients in the Reduction of Events with Darbepoetin alfa in Heart Failure trial (RED-HF) which is testing the hypothesis that anaemia correction with darbepoetin alfa will reduce the composite endpoint of death from any cause or hospital admission for worsening heart failure, and improve other outcomes.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Methods and results: Key demographic, clinical, and laboratory findings, along with baseline treatment, are reported and compared with those of patients in other recent clinical trials in heart failure. Compared with other recent trials, RED-HF enrolled more elderly [mean age 70 (SD 11.4) years], female (41%), and black (9%) patients. RED-HF patients more often had diabetes (46%) and renal impairment (72% had an estimated glomerular filtration rate &#60;60 mL/min/1.73 m2). Patients in RED-HF had heart failure of longer duration [5.3 (5.4) years], worse NYHA class (35% II, 63% III, and 2% IV), and more signs of congestion. Mean EF was 30% (6.8%). RED-HF patients were well treated at randomization, and pharmacological therapy at baseline was broadly similar to that of other recent trials, taking account of study-specific inclusion/exclusion criteria. Median (interquartile range) haemoglobin at baseline was 112 (106–117) g/L.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusion: The anaemic patients enrolled in RED-HF were older, moderately to markedly symptomatic, and had extensive co-morbidity.&lt;/p&gt

Children’s discursive constructions of the ‘self’

The ways in which children construct and assign meaning to the ‘self’ could have an impact on their social and emotional well-being, including their coping skills, relationship formation, and behaviour. Furthermore, a child’s understanding of the ‘self’ could influence the way in which they make meaning out of their experiences and internalize these experiences as a means of understanding one’s abilities and self-worth. Conditions of poverty and oppression could negatively impact the development of the self-concept and a child’s overall well-being. Such conditions exist in South Africa, where the aftermath of apartheid’s system of structural racism continues in the form of social inequity, poverty, and violence. This study utilized a child participation framework to explore children’s discursive constructions of and meanings assigned to the ‘self’ within two urban communities of the Western Cape, South Africa. Eight focus group discussions were conducted amongst fifty-four children between the ages of nine to twelve. Thematic and discourse analysis were used to analyse the findings. The themes of childhood, social connectedness, and children’s spaces were identified as key influences on a child’s self-concept. Four underlying discourses emerged within the themes as central to the participant’s self-constructions. These included; (1) ‘forfeited childhood,’ (2) ‘vulnerability and helplessness,’ (3) ‘preserving the integrity of the self,’ and (4) opportunitiwes for escape.