To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?

We explore the individual and institutional conditions and the climate information used to underpin decision-making for adaptation to high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios in a land resource management context. HECC refers to extreme projections with global annual temperature increases of over 4 °C. We analyse whether HECC scenarios are used in the adaptation decision-making of stakeholders who will tackle the potential problem. We also explore whether the adaptation actions being considered are pertinent only to future climate change or whether other drivers and information types are used in decision-making (including non-climate drivers). We also address the role of knowledge uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. Decision-makers perceive HECC as having a low probability of occurrence and so they do not directly account for HECC within existing actions to address climate change. Such actions focus on incremental rather than transformative solutions in which non-climate drivers are at least as important, and in many cases more important, than climate change alone. This reflects the need to accommodate multiple concerns and low risk options (i.e. incremental change). Uncertainty in climate change information is not a significant barrier to decision-making and stakeholders indicated little need for more climate information in support of adaptation decision-making. There is, however, an identified need for more information about the implications of particular sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts under HECC scenarios. The outcomes of this study provide evidence to assist in contextualising climate change information by creating usable, cross-sectoral, decision-centred information

Downscaling Climate Change Impacts, Socio-Economic Implications and Alternative Adaptation Pathways for Islands and Outermost Regions

This book provides a comprehensive overview of the future scenarios of climate change and management concerns associated with climate change impacts on the blue economy of European islands and outermost regions. The publication collects major findings of the SOCLIMPACT project’s research outcomes, aiming to raise social awareness among policy-makers and industry about climate change consequences at local level, and provide knowledge-based information to support policy design, from local to national level. This comprehensive book will also assist students, scholars and practitioners to understand, conceptualize and effectively and responsibly manage climate change information and applied research. This book provides invaluable material for Blue Growth Management, theory and application, at all levels. This first edition includes up-to-date data, statistics, references, case material and figures of the 12 islands case studies. ¨Downscaling climate change impacts, socio-economic implications and alternative adaptation pathways for Islands and Outermost Regions¨ is a must-read book, given the accessible style and breadth and depth with which the topic is dealt. The book is an up-to-date synthesis of key knowledge on this area, written by a multidisciplinary group of experts on climate and economic modelling, and policy design

Surveying perceptions and practices of high-end climate change

We surveyed members of the adaptation community about their views on high-end climate change—here defined as global average temperature increase exceeding 2 °C at the end of the century—at consecutive conferences in 2016 and 2018. Most strikingly our surveys show that a majority of the community disagrees that the Paris Agreement has reduced the possibility of the world reaching dangerous levels of climate change. Consistent with this, around two thirds of people consulted are considering high-end climate change or using high-end scenarios in their work all the time, or starting to. However, this is still not done by all. Preparedness for the specific threats posed by high-end impacts is not keeping pace, and more work needs to be done to strengthen the research basis and understand adaptation needs under high-end climate change. Moreover, views on finding information on impacts and tools for decision-making have not changed between 2016 and 2018, showing that there is no improvement. This situation underlines that the adaptation community needs to do better in supporting exchange of information and data between all actors—in addition to finding and filling knowledge gaps. Despite this, there is widespread support for avoiding delaying large-scale adaptation until we have more certainty

Integrated climate, ecological and socioeconomic scenarios for the whale watching sector

Unprecedented human induced changes to the climate system have already contributed to a variety of observed impacts to both ecosystems and populations. Decision-makers demand impact assessments at the regional-to-local scale to be able to plan and define effective climate action measures. Integrated socio-ecological assessments that properly consider system uncertainties require the use of prospective scenarios that project potential climate impacts, while accounting for sectoral exposure and adaptive capacity. Here we provide an integrated assessment of climate change to the whale watching sector by: 1) extending the European Shared Socio-economic Pathways (Eur-SSPs) and developing four whale watching SSP narratives (WW-SSPs) and 2) characterize each key element comprised in the WW-SSPs for the time period 2025–2055. We applied this approach in a case study for the Macaronesia region where we developed scenarios which integrate the socio-economic (WW-SSPs), climate (RCPs) and ecological (species' thermal suitability responses) dimensions of whale watching. These scenarios were used by local stakeholders to identify the level of preparedness of the whale watching sector. When confronted with scenarios that combine this ecological dimension with projected climate changes and the four different socioeconomic narratives, stakeholders assessed the whale watching sector in Macaronesia as being somewhat prepared for a Sustainable World and a Fossil Fuel Development World, but somewhat unprepared for a Rivalry World. No consensus was reached regarding the sector's preparedness level under an Inequality World scenario. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering multiple dimensions when assessing the potential challenges posed by climate change and provides a needed resource to help the whale watching sector in Macaronesia, and elsewhere, in its effort to devise efficient climate action policies and strategies.AS was funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology1 (FCT) through the PhD grant PD/BD/135352/2017. AS, REC, HC and TCL acknowledge the support from the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) under the programmatic funding granted to cE3c Research Centre (UIDP/00329/2020). CFS acknowledges funding from FCT under the strategic project granted to MARE (UID/MAR/04292/2019) and FCT research contract 2020.03704.CEECIND. This research was supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 776661, project “SOCLIMPACT—DownScaling CLImate imPACTs and decarbonisation pathways in EU islands and enhancing socioeconomic and non-market evaluation of Climate Change for Europe, for 2050 and beyond”.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Surveying perceptions and practices of high-end climate change

We surveyed members of the adaptation community about their views on high-end climate change—here defined as global average temperature increase exceeding 2 °C at the end of the century—at consecutive conferences in 2016 and 2018. Most strikingly our surveys show that a majority of the community disagrees that the Paris Agreement has reduced the possibility of the world reaching dangerous levels of climate change. Consistent with this, around two thirds of people consulted are considering high-end climate change or using high-end scenarios in their work all the time, or starting to. However, this is still not done by all. Preparedness for the specific threats posed by high-end impacts is not keeping pace, and more work needs to be done to strengthen the research basis and understand adaptation needs under high-end climate change. Moreover, views on finding information on impacts and tools for decision-making have not changed between 2016 and 2018, showing that there is no improvement. This situation underlines that the adaptation community needs to do better in supporting exchange of information and data between all actors—in addition to finding and filling knowledge gaps. Despite this, there is widespread support for avoiding delaying large-scale adaptation until we have more certainty

Background on uncertainty assessment supporting climate adaptation decision-making

Although trends in climate change are expected to continue, there is considerable uncertainty about the precise rate of change and its concrete impact. A key element in decision-making on climate adaptation is how to deal with this uncertainty. This chapter provides the background information on dealing with uncertainties: descriptions of uncertainty typology, methods of assessment, as well as a framework for dealing with uncertainty in climate adaptation decision-making. The chapter highlights that the classical elements used in uncertainty assessment (statistics, scenarios and recognised ignorance) can be expanded toward five principal uncertainty dimensions that are crucial for informing/supporting adaptation decision-making: location, level, nature, qualification of knowledge base, and value-ladenness. In practice, to deal with uncertainties, but also because of time and budget constraints, uncertainty assessments may follow a three step approach: (1) identify and characterise sources of uncertainty; (2) weigh, appraise, and prioritise uncertainties; and (3) select and apply methods for dealing with uncertainties in policy. Based on political and societal preferences, adaptation strategies could either use top-down or bottom-up approaches considering adaptation action based on the best prediction, robustness, or resilience. Adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the system’s and society’s capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) seem most appropriate. For potential climate-related effects for which rough risk estimates are available, ‘robust’ measures are recommended. For potential climate effects with limited societal and/or political relevance, ‘no-regret’ measures are recommended. For highly relevant potential climate-related effects, precautionary measures can be considered. The chapter provides also links to the uncertainty approaches in the case studies described in Chap. 4

Background on uncertainty assessment supporting climate adaptation decision-making

Although trends in climate change are expected to continue, there is considerable uncertainty about the precise rate of change and its concrete impact. A key element in decision-making on climate adaptation is how to deal with this uncertainty. This chapter provides the background information on dealing with uncertainties: descriptions of uncertainty typology, methods of assessment, as well as a framework for dealing with uncertainty in climate adaptation decision-making. The chapter highlights that the classical elements used in uncertainty assessment (statistics, scenarios and recognised ignorance) can be expanded toward five principal uncertainty dimensions that are crucial for informing/supporting adaptation decision-making: location, level, nature, qualification of knowledge base, and value-ladenness. In practice, to deal with uncertainties, but also because of time and budget constraints, uncertainty assessments may follow a three step approach: (1) identify and characterise sources of uncertainty; (2) weigh, appraise, and prioritise uncertainties; and (3) select and apply methods for dealing with uncertainties in policy. Based on political and societal preferences, adaptation strategies could either use top-down or bottom-up approaches considering adaptation action based on the best prediction, robustness, or resilience. Adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the system’s and society’s capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) seem most appropriate. For potential climate-related effects for which rough risk estimates are available, ‘robust’ measures are recommended. For potential climate effects with limited societal and/or political relevance, ‘no-regret’ measures are recommended. For highly relevant potential climate-related effects, precautionary measures can be considered. The chapter provides also links to the uncertainty approaches in the case studies described in Chap. 4