Probabilistic landslide ensemble prediction systems: lessons to be learned from hydrology

Landslide forecasting and early warning has a long tradition in landslide research and is primarily carried out based on empirical and statistical approaches, e.g., landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. In the last decade, flood forecasting started the operational mode of so-called ensemble prediction systems following the success of the use of ensembles for weather forecasting. These probabilistic approaches acknowledge the presence of unavoidable variability and uncertainty when larger areas are considered and explicitly introduce them into the model results. Now that highly detailed numerical weather predictions and high-performance computing are becoming more common, physically based landslide forecasting for larger areas is becoming feasible, and the landslide research community could benefit from the experiences that have been reported from flood forecasting using ensemble predictions. This paper reviews and summarizes concepts of ensemble prediction in hydrology and discusses how these could facilitate improved landslide forecasting. In addition, a prototype landslide forecasting system utilizing the physically based TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability) model is presented to highlight how such forecasting systems could be implemented. The paper concludes with a discussion of challenges related to parameter variability and uncertainty, calibration and validation, and computational concerns.</p

Phase Separation and Magnetic Order in K-doped Iron Selenide Superconductor

Alkali-doped iron selenide is the latest member of high Tc superconductor family, and its peculiar characters have immediately attracted extensive attention. We prepared high-quality potassium-doped iron selenide (KxFe2-ySe2) thin films by molecular beam epitaxy and unambiguously demonstrated the existence of phase separation, which is currently under debate, in this material using scanning tunneling microscopy and spectroscopy. The stoichiometric superconducting phase KFe2Se2 contains no iron vacancies, while the insulating phase has a \surd5\times\surd5 vacancy order. The iron vacancies are shown always destructive to superconductivity in KFe2Se2. Our study on the subgap bound states induced by the iron vacancies further reveals a magnetically-related bipartite order in the superconducting phase. These findings not only solve the existing controversies in the atomic and electronic structures in KxFe2-ySe2, but also provide valuable information on understanding the superconductivity and its interplay with magnetism in iron-based superconductors

Neuroticism-related personality traits are related to symptom severity in patients with premenstrual dysphoric disorder and to the serotonin transporter gene-linked polymorphism 5-HTTPLPR

Neuroticism has been linked to a functional polymorphism in the serotonin transporter gene (5-HTTLPR), with short-allele carriers being overrepresented among high-scorers on neuroticism. Studies evaluating neuroticism-related personality traits in relation to the 5-HTTLPR polymorphism among patients with premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD) and are lacking. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between PMDD and neuroticism-related personality traits, and secondly, to relate the personality trait scores of PMDD patients to experienced symptom severity and to the 5-HTTLPR short allele. Thirty PMDD patients and 55 asymptomatic healthy controls were included in the study. The Swedish Universities Scale of Personality was used to evaluate personality traits. Genotype analyses were available in 27 PMDD patients and 18 healthy controls. Women with PMDD displayed higher levels of neuroticism-related personality traits (psychic trait anxiety, somatic trait anxiety, embitterment, stress susceptibility and mistrust) than healthy controls, and these effects were most prominent in women with more severe luteal phase symptoms. Furthermore, PMDD patients with at least one copy of the short allele of the 5-HTTLPR polymorphism scored higher on psychic trait anxiety and lack of assertiveness than PMDD patients who were homozygous for the long allele. PMDD patients who suffer from more severe luteal phase symptoms also display increased scores of neuroticism-related personality traits in comparison with healthy controls. Within the group of PMDD patients, differences in certain personality trait scores are associated with the short allele of the 5-HTTLPR polymorphism

“Avoiding or approaching eyes”? Introversion/extraversion affects the gaze-cueing effect

We investigated whether the extra-/introversion personality dimension can influence processing of others’ eye gaze direction and emotional facial expression during a target detection task. On the basis of previous evidence showing that self-reported trait anxiety can affect gaze-cueing with emotional faces, we also verified whether trait anxiety can modulate the influence of intro-/extraversion on behavioral performance. Fearful, happy, angry or neutral faces, with either direct or averted gaze, were presented before the target appeared in spatial locations congruent or incongruent with stimuli’s eye gaze direction. Results showed a significant influence of intra-/extraversion dimension on gaze-cueing effect for angry, happy, and neutral faces with averted gaze. Introverts did not show the gaze congruency effect when viewing angry expressions, but did so with happy and neutral faces; extraverts showed the opposite pattern. Importantly, the influence of intro-/extraversion on gaze-cueing was not mediated by trait anxiety. These findings demonstrated that personality differences can shape processing of interactions between relevant social signals

Down-Regulation of Negative Emotional Processing by Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation: Effects of Personality Characteristics

Evidence from neuroimaging and electrophysiological studies indicates that the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) is a core region in emotional processing, particularly during down-regulation of negative emotional conditions. However, emotional regulation is a process subject to major inter-individual differences, some of which may be explained by personality traits. In the present study we used transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) over the left DLPFC to investigate whether transiently increasing the activity of this region resulted in changes in the ratings of positive, neutral and negative emotional pictures. Results revealed that anodal, but not cathodal, tDCS reduced the perceived degree of emotional valence for negative stimuli, possibly due to an enhancement of cognitive control of emotional expression. We also aimed to determine whether personality traits (extraversion and neuroticism) might condition the impact of tDCS. We found that individuals with higher scores on the introversion personality dimension were more permeable than extraverts to the modulatory effects of the stimulation. The present study underlines the role of the left DLPFC in emotional regulation, and stresses the importance of considering individual personality characteristics as a relevant variable, although replication is needed given the limited sample size of our study

Neuroticism Modifies Psychophysiological Responses to Fearful Films

Background: Neuroticism is a personality component frequently found in anxious and depressive psychiatric disorders. The influence of neuroticism on negative emotions could be due to its action on stimuli related to fear and sadness, but this remains debated. Our goal was thus to better understand the impact of neuroticism through verbal and physiological assessment in response to stimuli inducing fear and sadness as compared to another negative emotion (disgust).¦Methods: Fifteen low neurotic and 18 high neurotic subjects were assessed on an emotional attending task by using film excerpts inducing fear, disgust, and sadness. We recorded skin conductance response (SCR) and corrugator muscle activity (frowning) as indices of emotional expression.¦Results: SCR was larger in high neurotic subjects than in low neurotics for fear relative to sadness and disgust. Moreover, corrugator activity and SCR were larger in high than in low neurotic subjects when fear was induced.¦Conclusion: After decades of evidence that individuals higher in neuroticism experience more intense emotional reactions to even minor stressors, our results indicate that they show greater SCR and expressive reactivity specifically to stimuli evoking fear rather than to those inducing sadness or disgust. Fear processing seems mainly under the influence of neuroticism. This modulation of autonomic activity by neurotics in response to threat/fear may explain their increased vulnerability to anxious psychopathologies such as PTSD (post traumatic stress disorder)

Consumer perceptions of co-branding alliances: Organizational dissimilarity signals and brand fit

This study explores how consumers evaluate co-branding alliances between dissimilar partner firms. Customers are well aware that different firms are behind a co-branded product and observe the partner firms’ characteristics. Drawing on signaling theory, we assert that consumers use organizational characteristics as signals in their assessment of brand fit and for their purchasing decisions. Some organizational signals are beyond the control of the co-branding partners or at least they cannot alter them on short notice. We use a quasi-experimental design and test how co-branding partner dissimilarity affects brand fit perception. The results show that co-branding partner dissimilarity in terms of firm size, industry scope, and country-of-origin image negatively affects brand fit perception. Firm age dissimilarity does not exert significant influence. Because brand fit generally fosters a benevolent consumer attitude towards a co-branding alliance, the findings suggest that high partner dissimilarity may reduce overall co-branding alliance performance

Is There a Valence-Specific Pattern in Emotional Conflict in Major Depressive Disorder? An Exploratory Psychological Study

Objective: Patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) clinically exhibit a deficit in positive emotional processing and are often distracted by especially negative emotional stimuli. Such emotional-cognitive interference in turn hampers the cognitive abilities of patients in their ongoing task. While the psychological correlates of such emotional conflict have been well identified in healthy subjects, possible alterations of emotional conflict in depressed patients remain to be investigated. We conducted an exploratory psychological study to investigate emotional conflict in MDD. We also distinguished depression-related stimuli from negative stimuli in order to check whether the depression-related distractors will induce enhanced conflict in MDD. Methods: A typical word-face Stroop paradigm was adopted. In order to account for valence-specificities in MDD, we included positive and general negative as well as depression-related words in the study. Results: MDD patients demonstrated a specific pattern of emotional conflict clearly distinguishable from the healthy control group. In MDD, the positive distractor words did not significantly interrupt the processing of the negative target faces, while they did in healthy subjects. On the other hand, the depression-related distractor words induced significant emotional conflict to the positive target faces in MDD patients but not in the healthy control group. Conclusion: Our findings demonstrated for the first time an altered valence-specific pattern in emotional conflict in MD

5-HTTLPR Polymorphism Impacts Task-Evoked and Resting-State Activities of the Amygdala in Han Chinese

Background: Prior research has shown that the amygdala of carriers of the short allele (s) of the serotonin transporter (5-HTT) gene (5-HTTLPR) have a larger response to negative emotional stimuli and higher spontaneous activity during the resting state than non-carriers. However, recent studies have suggested that the effects of 5-HTTLPR may be specific to different ethnic groups. Few studies have been conducted to address this issue. Methodology/Principal Findings: Blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) was conducted on thirty-eight healthy Han Chinese subjects (l/l group, n = 19; s/s group, n = 19) during the resting state and during an emotional processing task. Compared with the s/s group, the l/l group showed significantly increased regional homogeneity or local synchronization in the right amygdala during the resting state (|t|.2.028, p,0.05, corrected), but no significant difference was found in the bilateral amygdala in response to negative stimuli in the emotional processing task. Conclusions/Significance: 5-HTTLPR can alter the spontaneous activity of the amygdala in Han Chinese. However, the effect of 5-HTTLPR on the amygdala both in task state and resting state in Asian population was no similar with Caucasians. The