Prediction of geomagnetic storm strength from inner heliospheric in situ observations

Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, B z . Predicting the strength and duration of B z inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, forming the so-called B z problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, B z , and resulting disturbance storm time (Dst) index on Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (<1 au). On 2012 June 12–16, three approximately Earthward-directed and interacting CMEs were observed by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory imagers and Venus Express (VEX) in situ at 0.72 au, 6° away from the Sun–Earth line. The CME kinematics are calculated using the drag-based and WSA–Enlil models, constrained by the arrival time at VEX, resulting in the CME arrival time and speed on Earth. The CME magnetic field strength is scaled with a power law from VEX to Wind. Our investigation shows promising results for the Dst forecast (predicted: −96 and −114 nT (from 2 Dst models); observed: −71 nT), for the arrival speed (predicted: 531 ± 23 km s−1; observed: 488 ± 30 km s−1), and for the timing (6 ± 1 hr after the actual arrival time). The prediction lead time is 21 hr. The method may be applied to vector magnetic field data from a spacecraft at an artificial Lagrange point between the Sun and Earth or to data taken by any spacecraft temporarily crossing the Sun–Earth line

Combined Multipoint Remote and In Situ Observations of the Asymmetric Evolution of a Fast Solar Coronal Mass Ejection

We present an analysis of the fast coronal mass ejection (CME) of 2012 March 7, which was imaged by both STEREO spacecraft and observed in situ by MESSENGER, Venus Express, Wind and Mars Express. Based on detected arrivals at four different positions in interplanetary space, it was possible to strongly constrain the kinematics and the shape of the ejection. Using the white-light heliospheric imagery from STEREO-A and B, we derived two different kinematical profiles for the CME by applying the novel constrained self-similar expansion method. In addition, we used a drag-based model to investigate the influence of the ambient solar wind on the CME's propagation. We found that two preceding CMEs heading in different directions disturbed the overall shape of the CME and influenced its propagation behavior. While the Venus-directed segment underwent a gradual deceleration (from ~2700 km/s at 15 R_sun to ~1500 km/s at 154 R_sun), the Earth-directed part showed an abrupt retardation below 35 R_sun (from ~1700 to ~900 km/s). After that, it was propagating with a quasi-constant speed in the wake of a preceding event. Our results highlight the importance of studies concerning the unequal evolution of CMEs. Forecasting can only be improved if conditions in the solar wind are properly taken into account and if attention is also paid to large events preceding the one being studied

ElEvoHI : A NOVEL CME PREDICTION TOOL FOR HELIOSPHERIC IMAGING COMBINING AN ELLIPTICAL FRONT WITH DRAG-BASED MODEL FITTING

This article has an erratum: DOI 10.3847/0004-637X/831/2/210In this study, we present a new method for forecasting arrival times and speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at any location in the inner heliosphere. This new approach enables the adoption of a highly flexible geometrical shape for the CME front with an adjustable CME angular width and an adjustable radius of curvature of its leading edge, i.e., the assumed geometry is elliptical. Using, as input, Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imager (HI) observations, a new elliptic conversion (ElCon) method is introduced and combined with the use of drag-based model (DBM) fitting to quantify the deceleration or acceleration experienced by CMEs during propagation. The result is then used as input for the Ellipse Evolution Model (ElEvo). Together, ElCon, DBM fitting, and ElEvo form the novel ElEvoHI forecasting utility. To demonstrate the applicability of ElEvoHI, we forecast the arrival times and speeds of 21 CMEs remotely observed from STEREO/HI and compare them to in situ arrival times and speeds at 1 AU. Compared to the commonly used STEREO/HI fitting techniques (Fixed-phi, Harmonic Mean, and Self-similar Expansion fitting), ElEvoHI improves the arrival time forecast by about 2 to +/- 6.5 hr and the arrival speed forecast by approximate to 250 to +/- 53 km s(-1), depending on the ellipse aspect ratio assumed. In particular, the remarkable improvement of the arrival speed prediction is potentially beneficial for predicting geomagnetic storm strength at Earth.Peer reviewe

Magnetic Fluctuations and Turbulence in the Venus Magnetosheath and Wake

Recent research has shown that distinct physical regions in the Venusian induced magnetosphere are recognizable from the variations of strength and of wave/fluctuation activity of the magnetic field. In this paper the statistical properties of magnetic fluctuations are investigated in the Venusian magnetosheath, terminator, and wake regions. The latter two regions were not visited by previous missions. We found 1/f fluctuations in the magnetosheath, large-scale structures near the terminator and more developed turbulence further downstream in the wake. Location independent short-tailed non-Gaussian statistics was observed.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figure

Ensemble Prediction of a Halo Coronal Mass Ejection Using Heliospheric Imagers

The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) and its heliospheric imagers (HIs) have provided us the possibility to enhance our understanding of the interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). HI‐based methods are able to forecast arrival times and speeds at any target and use the advantage of tracing a CME's path of propagation up to 1 AU and beyond. In our study, we use the ELEvoHI model for CME arrival prediction together with an ensemble approach to derive uncertainties in the modeled arrival time and impact speed. The CME from 3 November 2010 is analyzed by performing 339 model runs that are compared to in situ measurements from lined‐up spacecraft MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging and STEREO‐B. Remote data from STEREO‐B showed the CME as halo event, which is comparable to an HI observer situated at L1 and observing an Earth‐directed CME. A promising and easy approach is found by using the frequency distributions of four ELEvoHI output parameters, drag parameter, background solar wind speed, initial distance, and speed. In this case study, the most frequent values of these outputs lead to the predictions with the smallest errors. Restricting the ensemble to those runs, we are able to reduce the mean absolute arrival time error from 3.5 ± 2.6 to 1.6 ± 1.1 hr at 1 AU. Our study suggests that L1 may provide a sufficient vantage point for an Earth‐directed CME, when observed by HI, and that ensemble modeling could be a feasible approach to use ELEvoHI operationally

Prediction of the in situ coronal mass ejection rate for solar cycle 25: Implications for parker solar probe in situ observations

The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter missions are designed to make groundbreaking observations of the Sun and interplanetary space within this decade. We show that a particularly interesting in situ observation of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) by PSP may arise during close solar flybys (<0.1 au). During these times, the same magnetic flux rope inside an ICME could be observed in situ by PSP twice, by impacting its frontal part as well as its leg. Investigating the odds of this situation, we forecast the ICME rate in solar cycle 25 based on two models for the sunspot number (SSN): (1) the forecast of an expert panel in 2019 (maximum SSN = 115), and (2) a prediction by McIntosh et al. (2020, maximum SSN = 232). We link the SSN to the observed ICME rates in solar cycles 23 and 24 with the Richardson and Cane list and our own ICME catalog, and calculate that between one and seven ICMEs will be observed by PSP at heliocentric distances <0.1 au until 2025, including 1σ uncertainties. We then model the potential flux rope signatures of such a double-crossing event with the semiempirical 3DCORE flux rope model, showing a telltale elevation of the radial magnetic field component BR, and a sign reversal in the component BN normal to the solar equator compared to field rotation in the first encounter. This holds considerable promise to determine the structure of CMEs close to their origin in the solar corona

Intermittent turbulence, noisy fluctuations and wavy structures in the Venusian magnetosheath and wake

Recent research has shown that distinct physical regions in the Venusian induced magnetosphere are recognizable from the variations of strength of the magnetic field and its wave/fluctuation activity. In this paper the statistical properties of magnetic fluctuations are investigated in the Venusian magnetosheath and wake regions. The main goal is to identify the characteristic scaling features of fluctuations along Venus Express (VEX) trajectory and to understand the specific circumstances of the occurrence of different types of scalings. For the latter task we also use the results of measurements from the previous missions to Venus. Our main result is that the changing character of physical interactions between the solar wind and the planetary obstacle is leading to different types of spectral scaling in the near-Venusian space. Noisy fluctuations are observed in the magnetosheath, wavy structures near the terminator and in the nightside near-planet wake. Multi-scale turbulence is observed at the magnetosheath boundary layer and near the quasi-parallel bow shock. Magnetosheath boundary layer turbulence is associated with an average magnetic field which is nearly aligned with the Sun-Venus line. Noisy magnetic fluctuations are well described with the Gaussian statistics. Both magnetosheath boundary layer and near shock turbulence statistics exhibit non-Gaussian features and intermittency over small spatio-temporal scales. The occurrence of turbulence near magnetosheath boundaries can be responsible for the local heating of plasma observed by previous missions

Ensemble Prediction of a Halo Coronal Mass Ejection Using Heliospheric Imagers

The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) and its heliospheric imagers (HIs) have provided us the possibility to enhance our understanding of the interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). HI‐based methods are able to forecast arrival times and speeds at any target and use the advantage of tracing a CME's path of propagation up to 1 AU and beyond. In our study, we use the ELEvoHI model for CME arrival prediction together with an ensemble approach to derive uncertainties in the modeled arrival time and impact speed. The CME from 3 November 2010 is analyzed by performing 339 model runs that are compared to in situ measurements from lined‐up spacecraft MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging and STEREO‐B. Remote data from STEREO‐B showed the CME as halo event, which is comparable to an HI observer situated at L1 and observing an Earth‐directed CME. A promising and easy approach is found by using the frequency distributions of four ELEvoHI output parameters, drag parameter, background solar wind speed, initial distance, and speed. In this case study, the most frequent values of these outputs lead to the predictions with the smallest errors. Restricting the ensemble to those runs, we are able to reduce the mean absolute arrival time error from 3.5 ± 2.6 to 1.6 ± 1.1 hr at 1 AU. Our study suggests that L1 may provide a sufficient vantage point for an Earth‐directed CME, when observed by HI, and that ensemble modeling could be a feasible approach to use ELEvoHI operationally