The local space density of dwarf galaxies

We estimate the luminosity function of field galaxies over a range of ten magnitudes (-22 < M_{B_J} < -12 for H_0 = 100 km/s/Mpc) by counting the number of faint APM galaxies around Stromlo-APM redshift survey galaxies at known distance. The faint end of the luminosity function rises steeply at M_{B_J} \approx -15, implying that the space density of dwarf galaxies is at least two times larger than predicted by a Schechter function with flat faint-end slope. Such a high abundance of dwarf galaxies at low redshift can help explain the observed number counts and redshift distributions of faint galaxies without invoking exotic models for galaxy evolution.Comment: 20 pages, 5 included postscript figures, uses AAS LaTex macros. Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal. Two figures and associated discussion added; results and conclusions unchange

Weak Gravitational Lensing by a Sample of X-ray Luminous Clusters of Galaxies -- III. Serendipitous Weak Lensing Detections of Dark and Luminous Mass Concentrations

In the course of a weak gravitational lensing survey of 39 clusters of galaxies,covering a total sky area of ~1 square degree, we have serendipitously discovered mass concentrations in the fields of A1705 and A1722 which are most probably not associated with the main cluster target. By combining weak lensing information with two-color galaxy photometry in fields centered on our sample clusters, we identify a new cluster candidate at z~0.5 in the field of A1705. This cluster candidate also displays strong lensing in the form of a giant luminous arc. The new mass concentration in the field of A1722 also seems to be associated with an optically luminous cluster of galaxies at z~0.5, but in this case there is some evidence for additional structures along the line of sight that may contribute to the lensing signal. A third cluster, A959, has a dark sub-clump which shows interesting morphological evidence in the mass map for being associated with the main cluster. This is the first case where there is any significant evidence for a physical association between a dark sub-clump (discovered from weak lensing) and a normal cluster. Analysis of archival X-ray data shows that the three new mass concentrations are not firmly detected in X-rays and that they are X-ray underluminous.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures, version accepted by ApJ. See http://www.nordita.dk/~dahle/paper3.ps.gz for a version with high-resolution figures and Fig.5 in colo

Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for National Basketball Association games

Maddox, et al. (2022) establish a new win probability estimation for college basketball and compared the results with previous methods of Stern (1994), Desphande and Jensen (2016) and Benz (2019). This paper proposes modifications to the approach of Maddox, et al. (2022) for the NBA game and investigates the performance of the model. Enhancements to the model are developed, and the resulting adjusted model is compared with existing methods and to the ESPN counterpart. To illustrate utility, all methods are applied to the November 23, 2019 game between the Chicago Bulls and Charlotte Hornets.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, 5 tables. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2204.1177

Switching warfarin to direct oral anticoagulants in atrial fibrillation: Insights from the NCDR PINNACLE registry

BACKGROUND: Previous studies examining the use of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in atrial fibrillation (AF) have largely focused on patients newly initiating therapy. Little is known about the prevalence/patterns of switching to DOACs among AF patients initially treated with warfarin. HYPOTHESIS: To examine patterns of anticoagulation among patients chronically managed with warfarin upon the availability of DOACs and identify patient/practice-level factors associated with switching from chronic warfarin therapy to a DOAC. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of AF patients in the NCDR PINNACLE registry prescribed warfarin between May 1, 2008 and May 1, 2015. Patients were followed at least 1 year (median length of follow-up 375 days, IQR 154-375) through May 1, 2016 and stratified as follows: continued warfarin, switched to DOAC, or discontinued anticoagulation. To identify significant predictors of switching, a three-level multivariable hierarchical regression was developed. RESULTS: Among 383 008 AF patients initially prescribed warfarin, 16.3% (n = 62 620) switched to DOACs, 68.8% (n = 263 609) continued warfarin, and 14.8% (n = 56 779) discontinued anticoagulation. Among those switched, 37.6% received dabigatran, 37.0% rivaroxaban, 24.4% apixaban, and 1.0% edoxaban. Switched patients were more likely to be younger, women, white, and have private insurance (all P \u3c .001). Switching was less likely with increased stroke risk (OR, 0.92; 95%CI, 0.91-0.93 per 1-point increase CHA CONCLUSIONS: Among AF patients treated with warfarin between October 1, 2010 and May 1, 2016, one in six were switched to DOACs, with differences across sociodemographic/clinical characteristics and substantial practice-level variation. In the context of current guidelines which favor DOACs over warfarin, these findings help benchmark performance and identify areas of improvement

Introduction

Introduction to issu

Power Spectrum of Velocity Fluctuations in the Universe

We investigate the power spectrum of velocity fluctuations in the universe, $V^2(k)$, starting from four different measures of velocity: (1) the power spectrum of velocity fluctuations from peculiar velocities of galaxies; (2) the rms peculiar velocity of galaxy clusters; (3) the power spectrum of velocity fluctuations from the power spectrum of density fluctuations in the galaxy distribution; (4) and the bulk velocity from peculiar velocities of galaxies. We show that measures (1) and (2) are not consistent with each other and either the power spectrum from peculiar velocities of galaxies is overestimated or the rms cluster peculiar velocity is underestimated. The amplitude of velocity fluctuations derived from the galaxy distribution (measure 3) depends on the parameter $\beta$. We estimate the parameter $\beta$ on the basis of measures (2) and (4). The power spectrum of velocity fluctuations from the galaxy distribution in the Stromlo-APM redshift survey is consistent with the observed rms cluster velocity and with the observed large-scale bulk flow when the parameter $\beta$ is in the range 0.4-0.5. In this case the value of the function $V(k)$ at wavelength $\lambda=120h^{-1}$Mpc is $\sim 350$ km s$^{-1}$ and the rms amplitude of the bulk flow at the radius $r=60h^{-1}$ Mpc is $\sim 340$ km s$^{-1}$. The velocity dispersion of galaxy systems originates mostly from the large-scale velocity fluctuations with wavelengths $\lambda >100h^{-1}$ Mpc.Comment: Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 493, in press: 23 pages, uses AAS Latex, and 14 separate postscript figure

An Observational Limit on the Dwarf Galaxy Population of the Local Group

We present the results of an all-sky, deep optical survey for faint Local Group dwarf galaxies. Candidate objects were selected from the second Palomar survey (POSS-II) and ESO/SRC survey plates and follow-up observations performed to determine whether they were indeed overlooked members of the Local Group. Only two galaxies (Antlia and Cetus) were discovered this way out of 206 candidates. Based on internal and external comparisons, we estimate that our visual survey is more than 77% complete for objects larger than one arc minute in size and with a surface brightness greater than an extremely faint limit over the 72% of the sky not obstructed by the Milky Way. Our limit of sensitivity cannot be calculated exactly, but is certainly fainter than 25 magnitudes per square arc second in R, probably 25.5 and possibly approaching 26. We conclude that there are at most one or two Local Group dwarf galaxies fitting our observational criteria still undiscovered in the clear part of the sky, and a roughly a dozen hidden behind the Milky Way. Our work places the "missing satellite problem" on a firm quantitative observational basis. We present detailed data on all our candidates, including surface brightness measurements.Comment: 58 pages in AJ manuscript format; some figures at slightly reduced quality; accepted by the Astronomical Journa

Cassiopeia A: dust factory revealed via submillimetre polarimetry

If Type-II supernovae - the evolutionary end points of short-lived, massive stars - produce a significant quantity of dust (>0.1 M_sun) then they can explain the rest-frame far-infrared emission seen in galaxies and quasars in the first Gyr of the Universe. Submillimetre observations of the Galactic supernova remnant, Cas A, provided the first observational evidence for the formation of significant quantities of dust in Type-II supernovae. In this paper we present new data which show that the submm emission from Cas A is polarised at a level significantly higher than that of its synchrotron emission. The orientation is consistent with that of the magnetic field in Cas A, implying that the polarised submm emission is associated with the remnant. No known mechanism would vary the synchrotron polarisation in this way and so we attribute the excess polarised submm flux to cold dust within the remnant, providing fresh evidence that cosmic dust can form rapidly. This is supported by the presence of both polarised and unpolarised dust emission in the north of the remnant, where there is no contamination from foreground molecular clouds. The inferred dust polarisation fraction is unprecedented (f_pol ~ 30%) which, coupled with the brief timescale available for grain alignment (<300 yr), suggests that supernova dust differs from that seen in other Galactic sources (where f_pol=2-7%), or that a highly efficient grain alignment process must operate in the environment of a supernova remnant.Comment: In press at MNRAS, 10 pages, print in colou