Modeling ocean-cryosphere interactions off Adélie and George V Land, East Antarctica

Ocean–cryosphere interactions along the Adélie and George V Land (AGVL) coast are investigated using a coupled ocean–sea ice–ice shelf model. The dominant feature of the Mertz Glacier Tongue (MGT), located at approximately 145°E, was a highly productive winter coastal polynya system, until its calving in February 2010 dramatically changed the regional “icescape.” This study examines the annual mean, seasonal, and interannual variabilities of sea ice production; basal melting of the MGT; ice shelves, large icebergs, and fast ice; Dense Shelf Water (DSW) export; and bottom water properties on the continental slope and rise, and assesses the impacts of the calving event. The interannual variability of the winter coastal polynya regime is dominated by the regional offshore winds and air temperature, which are linked to activity of the Amundsen Sea low pressure system. This is the main driver of the interannual variability of DSW exported from the AGVL region. The calving event led to a decrease in sea ice production that resulted in a decrease in the density of DSW export. Subsequently, there is extensive freshening downstream over the continental shelf and slope regions. In addition, it is found that the calving event causes a significant decrease in the mean melt rate of the MGT, resulting from a decrease in ocean heat flux into the cavity due to ocean circulation changes

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5◦C global warming

Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2°C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the last decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5-2.0°C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance elevation feedback, while for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening

Modeling seasonal-to-decadal ocean–cryosphere interactions along the Sabrina Coast, East Antarctica

The Totten Ice Shelf (TIS) and Moscow University Ice Shelf (MUIS), along the Sabrina Coast of Wilkes Land, are the floating seaward terminuses of the second-largest freshwater reservoir in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Being a marine ice sheet, it is vulnerable to the surrounding ocean conditions. Recent comprehensive oceanographic observations, including bathymetric measurements off the Sabrina Coast, have shed light on the widespread intrusion of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) onto the continental shelf and the intense ice–ocean interaction beneath the TIS. However, the spatiotemporal coverage of the observation is very limited. Here, we use an ocean–sea ice–ice shelf model with updated bathymetry to better understand the regional ocean circulations and ocean–cryosphere interactions. The model successfully captured the widespread intrusions of mCDW, local sea ice production and the ocean heat and volume transports into the TIS cavity, facilitating an examination of the overturning ocean circulation within the ice shelf cavities and the resultant basal melting. We found notable differences in the temporal variability in ice shelf basal melting across the two adjacent ice shelves of the TIS and the western part of the MUIS. Ocean heat transport by mCDW controls the low-frequency interannual-to-decadal variability in ice–ocean interactions, but the sea ice production in the Dalton Polynya strongly modifies the signals, explaining the regional difference between the two ice shelves. The formation of a summertime eastward-flowing undercurrent beneath the westward-flowing Antarctic Slope Current is found to play an important role in the seasonal delivery of ocean heat to the continental shelf.</p