Behavior of susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemics on heterogeneous networks with saturation

We investigate saturation effects in susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) models of the spread of epidemics in heterogeneous populations. The structure of interactions in the population is represented by networks with connectivity distribution $P(k)$,including scale-free(SF) networks with power law distributions $P(k)\sim k^{-\gamma}$. Considering cases where the transmission of infection between nodes depends on their connectivity, we introduce a saturation function $C(k)$ which reduces the infection transmission rate $\lambda$ across an edge going from a node with high connectivity $k$. A mean field approximation with the neglect of degree-degree correlation then leads to a finite threshold $\lambda_{c}>0$ for SF networks with $2<\gamma \leq 3$. We also find, in this approximation, the fraction of infected individuals among those with degree $k$ for $\lambda$ close to $\lambda_{c}$. We investigate via computer simulation the contact process on a heterogeneous regular lattice and compare the results with those obtained from mean field theory with and without neglect of degree-degree correlations.Comment: 6 figure

Fluctuation induces evolutionary branching in a modeled microbial ecosystem

The impact of environmental fluctuation on species diversity is studied with a model of the evolutionary ecology of microorganisms. We show that environmental fluctuation induces evolutionary branching and assures the consequential coexistence of multiple species. Pairwise invasibility analysis is applied to illustrate the speciation process. We also discuss how fluctuation affects species diversity.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures. Submitted to Physical Review Letter

Modeling resilience and sustainability in ancient agricultural systems

The reasons why people adopt unsustainable agricultural practices, and the ultimate environmental implications of those practices, remain incompletely understood in the present world. Archaeology, however, offers unique datasets on coincident cultural and ecological change, and their social and environmental effects. This article applies concepts derived from ecological resilience thinking to assess the sustainability of agricultural practices as a result of long-term interactions between political, economic, and environmental systems. Using the urban center of Gordion, in central Turkey, as a case study, it is possible to identify mismatched social and ecological processes on temporal, spatial, and organizational scales, which help to resolve thresholds of resilience. Results of this analysis implicate temporal and spatial mismatches as a cause for local environmental degradation, and increasing extralocal economic pressures as an ultimate cause for the adoption of unsustainable land-use practices. This analysis suggests that a research approach that integrates environmental archaeology with a resilience perspective has considerable potential for explicating regional patterns of agricultural change and environmental degradation in the past

Bivariate stochastic modeling of functional response with natural mortality

A correction due to Abbott (1925) is the standard method of dealing with control mortality in insect bioassay to estimate the mortality of an insect conditional on control mortality not having occurred. In this article a bivariate stochastic process for overall mortality is developed in which natural mortality and predation are jointly modeled to take account of the competing-risks associated with prey loss. The total mortality estimate from this model is essentially identical with that from more classical modeling. However, when predation loss is estimated in the absence of control mortality the results are somewhat different, with the estimate from the bivariate model being lower than that from using Abbott’s formula in conjunction with the classical model. It is argued that overdispersion in observed mortality data corresponds to correlated outcomes (death or survival) for the prey initially present, while Abbott’s correction relies implicitly on independence

Resistance and resilience of social–ecological systems to recurrent typhoon disturbance on a subtropical island: Taiwan

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have major effects on ecological and social systems. However, studies integrating the effects of TCs on both social and ecological systems are rare, especially in the northwest Pacific, where the frequency of TCs (locally named typhoons) is the highest in the world. We synthesized studies of effects of recurrent typhoons on social and ecological systems in Taiwan over the last several decades. Many responses to TCs are comparable between social and ecological systems. High forest ecosystem resistance, evident from tree mortality below 2% even following multiple strong typhoons, is comparable with resistance of social systems, including the only 4% destruction of river embankments following a typhoon that brought nearly 3000 mm rainfall in three days. High resilience as reflected by quick returns of leaf area index, mostly in one year, and streamwater chemistry, one to several weeks to pre‐typhoon levels of ecosystems, are comparable to quick repair of the power grid within one to several days and returns of vegetable price within several weeks to pre‐typhoon levels of the social systems. Landslides associated with intense typhoons have buried mountain villages and transported large quantities of woody debris to the coast, affecting the coastal plains and reefs, illustrating a ridge‐to‐reef link between ecological and societal systems. Metrics of both social and ecological function showed large fluctuations in response to typhoons but quickly returned to pre‐disturbance levels, except when multiple intense typhoons occurred within a single season. Our synthesis illustrates that the social–ecological systems in Taiwan are highly dynamic and responsive to frequent typhoon disturbance, with extraordinarily high resistance and resilience. For ecosystems, the efficient responsiveness results from the selective force of TCs on ecosystem structure and processes. For social systems, it is the result of the effects of TCs on planning and decision making by individuals (e.g., farmers), management sectors, and ultimately the government. In regions with frequent TCs, the social–ecological systems are inevitably highly dynamic and rapid responses are fundamental to system resistance and resilience which in turn is key to maintaining structure and function of the social–ecological systems

Networked buffering: a basic mechanism for distributed robustness in complex adaptive systems

A generic mechanism - networked buffering - is proposed for the generation of robust traits in complex systems. It requires two basic conditions to be satisfied: 1) agents are versatile enough to perform more than one single functional role within a system and 2) agents are degenerate, i.e. there exists partial overlap in the functional capabilities of agents. Given these prerequisites, degenerate systems can readily produce a distributed systemic response to local perturbations. Reciprocally, excess resources related to a single function can indirectly support multiple unrelated functions within a degenerate system. In models of genome:proteome mappings for which localized decision-making and modularity of genetic functions are assumed, we verify that such distributed compensatory effects cause enhanced robustness of system traits. The conditions needed for networked buffering to occur are neither demanding nor rare, supporting the conjecture that degeneracy may fundamentally underpin distributed robustness within several biotic and abiotic systems. For instance, networked buffering offers new insights into systems engineering and planning activities that occur under high uncertainty. It may also help explain recent developments in understanding the origins of resilience within complex ecosystems. \ud \u

Can forest management based on natural disturbances maintain ecological resilience?

Given the increasingly global stresses on forests, many ecologists argue that managers must maintain ecological resilience: the capacity of ecosystems to absorb disturbances without undergoing fundamental change. In this review we ask: Can the emerging paradigm of natural-disturbance-based management (NDBM) maintain ecological resilience in managed forests? Applying resilience theory requires careful articulation of the ecosystem state under consideration, the disturbances and stresses that affect the persistence of possible alternative states, and the spatial and temporal scales of management relevance. Implementing NDBM while maintaining resilience means recognizing that (i) biodiversity is important for long-term ecosystem persistence, (ii) natural disturbances play a critical role as a generator of structural and compositional heterogeneity at multiple scales, and (iii) traditional management tends to produce forests more homogeneous than those disturbed naturally and increases the likelihood of unexpected catastrophic change by constraining variation of key environmental processes. NDBM may maintain resilience if silvicultural strategies retain the structures and processes that perpetuate desired states while reducing those that enhance resilience of undesirable states. Such strategies require an understanding of harvesting impacts on slow ecosystem processes, such as seed-bank or nutrient dynamics, which in the long term can lead to ecological surprises by altering the forest's capacity to reorganize after disturbance

Modelling and simulating change in reforesting mountain landscapes using a social-ecological framework

Natural reforestation of European mountain landscapes raises major environmental and societal issues. With local stakeholders in the Pyrenees National Park area (France), we studied agricultural landscape colonisation by ash (Fraxinus excelsior) to enlighten its impacts on biodiversity and other landscape functions of importance for the valley socio-economics. The study comprised an integrated assessment of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) since the 1950s, and a scenario analysis of alternative future policy. We combined knowledge and methods from landscape ecology, land change and agricultural sciences, and a set of coordinated field studies to capture interactions and feedback in the local landscape/land-use system. Our results elicited the hierarchically-nested relationships between social and ecological processes. Agricultural change played a preeminent role in the spatial and temporal patterns of LUCC. Landscape colonisation by ash at the parcel level of organisation was merely controlled by grassland management, and in fact depended on the farmer's land management at the whole-farm level. LUCC patterns at the landscape level depended to a great extent on interactions between farm household behaviours and the spatial arrangement of landholdings within the landscape mosaic. Our results stressed the need to represent the local SES function at a fine scale to adequately capture scenarios of change in landscape functions. These findings orientated our modelling choices in the building an agent-based model for LUCC simulation (SMASH - Spatialized Multi-Agent System of landscape colonization by ASH). We discuss our method and results with reference to topical issues in interdisciplinary research into the sustainability of multifunctional landscapes

Degeneracy: a link between evolvability, robustness and complexity in biological systems

A full accounting of biological robustness remains elusive; both in terms of the mechanisms by which robustness is achieved and the forces that have caused robustness to grow over evolutionary time. Although its importance to topics such as ecosystem services and resilience is well recognized, the broader relationship between robustness and evolution is only starting to be fully appreciated. A renewed interest in this relationship has been prompted by evidence that mutational robustness can play a positive role in the discovery of adaptive innovations (evolvability) and evidence of an intimate relationship between robustness and complexity in biology. This paper offers a new perspective on the mechanics of evolution and the origins of complexity, robustness, and evolvability. Here we explore the hypothesis that degeneracy, a partial overlap in the functioning of multi-functional components, plays a central role in the evolution and robustness of complex forms. In support of this hypothesis, we present evidence that degeneracy is a fundamental source of robustness, it is intimately tied to multi-scaled complexity, and it establishes conditions that are necessary for system evolvability