Regional prediction of landslide hazard using probability analysis of intense rainfall in the Hoa Binh province, Vietnam.

The main objective of this study is to assess regional landslide hazards in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam. A landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources with data mainly for a period of 21 years from 1990 to 2010. The historic inventory of these failures shows that rainfall is the main triggering factor in this region. The probability of the occurrence of episodes of rainfall and the rainfall threshold were deduced from records of rainfall for the aforementioned period. The rainfall threshold model was generated based on daily and cumulative values of antecedent rainfall of the landslide events. The result shows that 15-day antecedent rainfall gives the best fit for the existing landslides in the inventory. The rainfall threshold model was validated using the rainfall and landslide events that occurred in 2010 that were not considered in building the threshold model. The result was used for estimating temporal probability of a landslide to occur using a Poisson probability model. Prior to this work, five landslide susceptibility maps were constructed for the study area using support vector machines, logistic regression, evidential belief functions, Bayesian-regularized neural networks, and neuro-fuzzy models. These susceptibility maps provide information on the spatial prediction probability of landslide occurrence in the area. Finally, landslide hazard maps were generated by integrating the spatial and the temporal probability of landslide. A total of 15 specific landslide hazard maps were generated considering three time periods of 1, 3, and 5 years

Fuchs versus Painlev\'e

We briefly recall the Fuchs-Painlev\'e elliptic representation of Painlev\'e VI. We then show that the polynomiality of the expressions of the correlation functions (and form factors) in terms of the complete elliptic integral of the first and second kind, $K$ and $E$, is a straight consequence of the fact that the differential operators corresponding to the entries of Toeplitz-like determinants, are equivalent to the second order operator $L_E$ which has $E$ as solution (or, for off-diagonal correlations to the direct sum of $L_E$ and $d/dt$). We show that this can be generalized, mutatis mutandis, to the anisotropic Ising model. The singled-out second order linear differential operator $L_E$ being replaced by an isomonodromic system of two third-order linear partial differential operators associated with $\Pi_1$, the Jacobi's form of the complete elliptic integral of the third kind (or equivalently two second order linear partial differential operators associated with Appell functions, where one of these operators can be seen as a deformation of $L_E$). We finally explore the generalizations, to the anisotropic Ising models, of the links we made, in two previous papers, between Painlev\'e non-linear ODE's, Fuchsian linear ODE's and elliptic curves. In particular the elliptic representation of Painlev\'e VI has to be generalized to an ``Appellian'' representation of Garnier systems.Comment: Dedicated to the : Special issue on Symmetries and Integrability of Difference Equations, SIDE VII meeting held in Melbourne during July 200

emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management

Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction of local, catchment-specific characteristics, such as meteorology, topography and geology. These traditional views have been beneficial, but they have a narrow framing. In this paper we contrast traditional views with broader perspectives that are emerging from an improved understanding of the climatic context of floods. We come to the following conclusions: (1) extending the traditional system boundaries (local catchment, recent decades, hydrological/hydraulic processes) opens up exciting possibilities for better understanding and improved tools for flood risk assessment and management. (2) Statistical approaches in flood estimation need to be complemented by the search for the causal mechanisms and dominant processes in the atmosphere, catchment and river system that leave their fingerprints on flood characteristics. (3) Natural climate variability leads to time-varying flood characteristics, and this variation may be partially quantifiable and predictable, with the perspective of dynamic, climate-informed flood risk management. (4) Efforts are needed to fully account for factors that contribute to changes in all three risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and to better understand the interactions between society and floods. (5) Given the global scale and societal importance, we call for the organization of an international multidisciplinary collaboration and data-sharing initiative to further understand the links between climate and flooding and to advance flood research

Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management

Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction of local, catchment-specific characteristics, such as meteorology, topography and geology. These traditional views have been beneficial, but they have a narrow framing. In this paper we contrast traditional views with broader perspectives that are emerging from an improved understanding of the climatic context of floods. We come to the following conclusions: (1) extending the traditional system boundaries (local catchment, recent decades, hydrological/hydraulic processes) opens up exciting possibilities for better understanding and improved tools for flood risk assessment and management. (2) Statistical approaches in flood estimation need to be complemented by the search for the causal mechanisms and dominant processes in the atmosphere, catchment and river system that leave their fingerprints on flood characteristics. (3) Natural climate variability leads to time-varying flood characteristics, and this variation may be partially quantifiable and predictable, with the perspective of dynamic, climate-informed flood risk management. (4) Efforts are needed to fully account for factors that contribute to changes in all three risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and to better understand the interactions between society and floods. (5) Given the global scale and societal importance, we call for the organization of an international multidisciplinary collaboration and data-sharing initiative to further understand the links between climate and flooding and to advance flood research

Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy

Abstract. In Italy, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides that frequently cause fatalities and large economic damage. Using a variety of information sources, we have compiled a catalogue listing 753 rainfall events that have resulted in landslides in Italy. For each event in the catalogue, the exact or approximate location of the landslide and the time or period of initiation of the slope failure is known, together with information on the rainfall duration D, and the rainfall mean intensity I, that have resulted in the slope failure. The catalogue represents the single largest collection of information on rainfall-induced landslides in Italy, and was exploited to determine the minimum rainfall conditions necessary for landslide occurrence in Italy, and in the Abruzzo Region, central Italy. For the purpose, new national rainfall thresholds for Italy and new regional rainfall thresholds for the Abruzzo Region were established, using two independent statistical methods, including a Bayesian inference method and a new Frequentist approach. The two methods proved complementary, with the Bayesian method more suited to analyze small data sets, and the Frequentist method performing better when applied to large data sets. The new regional thresholds for the Abruzzo Region are lower than the new national thresholds for Italy, and lower than the regional thresholds proposed in the literature for the Piedmont and Lombardy Regions in northern Italy, and for the Campania Region in southern Italy. This is important, because it shows that landslides in Italy can be triggered by less severe rainfall conditions than previously recognized. The Frequentist method experimented in this work allows for the definition of multiple minimum rainfall thresholds, each based on a different exceedance probability level. This makes the thresholds suited for the design of probabilistic schemes for the prediction of rainfall-induced landslides. A scheme based on four probabilistic thresholds is proposed. The four thresholds separate five fields, each characterized by different rainfall intensity-duration conditions, and corresponding different probability of possible landslide occurrence. The scheme can be implemented in landslide warning systems that operate on rainfall thresholds, and on precipitation measurements or forecasts

Influence of gravitational sympathetic stimulation on the surgical plethysmographic index

Surgical Plethysmographic Index (SPI), calculated from pulse photo-plethysmographic amplitude oscillations, has been proposed as a tool to measure nociception anti-nociception balance during general anesthesia, but it is affected by several confounding factor that alter the autonomic nervous system (ANS) modulation. We hypothesized that SPI may be mainly affected by sympathetic stimulation independently from nociception. We studied the effects of two sympathetic stimuli on SPI, delivered through passive head-up tilt at 45 and 90 degrees angles, in nine awake healthy adults. The sympathetic modulation was assessed by means of heart rate variability (HRV) analysis. Mean (SD) SPI significantly increased from baseline to 45 degrees [from 38.6 (13.7) to 60.8 (7.6), p<0.001)] and to 90 degrees angle tilt [82.3 (5.4), p<0.001]. The electrocardiographic mean R-to-R interval significantly shortened during both passive tilts, whereas systolic arterial pressure did not change during the study protocol. HRV changed significantly during the study protocol towards a predominance of sympathetic modulation during passive tilt. Gravitational sympathetic stimulation at two increasing angles, in absence of any painful stimuli, affects SPI in awake healthy volunteers. SPI seems to reflect the sympathetic outflow directed to peripheral vessels

Automated reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for shallow landslides

Over the last 40 years, many contributions have identified empirical rainfall thresholds (e.g. rainfall intensity (I ) vs. rainfall duration (D), cumulated rainfall vs. rainfall duration (ED), cumulated rainfall vs. rainfall intensity (EI)) for the possible initiation of shallow landslides, based on local and global inventories. Although different methods to trace the threshold curves have been proposed and discussed in literature, a systematic study to develop an automated procedure to select the rainfall event responsible for the landslide occurrence has only rarely been addressed. Objective criteria for estimating the rainfall responsible for the landslide occurrence play a prominent role on the threshold values. In this paper, two criteria for the identification of the effective rainfall events are presented. The first criterion is based on the analysis of the time series of rainfall mean intensity values over 1 month preceding the landslide occurrence. The second criterion is based on the analysis of the trend in the time function of the cumulated mean intensity series calculated from the rainfall records measured through rain gauges. The two criteria have been implemented in an automated procedure that is written in the R language. A sample of 100 shallow landslides collected in Italy from 2002 to 2012 was used to calibrate the procedure. The cumulated event rainfall (E) and duration (D) of rainfall events that triggered the documented landslides are calculated through the new procedure and are fitted with power law in the D, E diagram. The results are discussed by comparing the D, E pairs calculated by the automated procedure and the ones by the expert method

Rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Calabria, southern Italy

Abstract. In many areas, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides. Determining the rainfall conditions responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to saving lives and properties. In a long-term national project for the definition of rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy, we compiled a catalogue of 186 rainfall events that resulted in 251 shallow landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, from January 1996 to September 2011. Landslides were located geographically using Google Earth®, and were given a mapping and a temporal accuracy. We used the landslide information, and sub-hourly rainfall measurements obtained from two complementary networks of rain gauges, to determine cumulated event vs. rainfall duration (ED) thresholds for Calabria. For this purpose, we adopted an existing method used to prepare rainfall thresholds and to estimate their associated uncertainties in central Italy. The regional thresholds for Calabria were found to be nearly identical to previous ED thresholds for Calabria obtained using a reduced set of landslide information, and slightly higher than the ED thresholds obtained for central Italy. We segmented the regional catalogue of rainfall events with landslides in Calabria into lithology, soil regions, rainfall zones, and seasonal periods. The number of events in each subdivision was insufficient to determine reliable thresholds, but allowed for preliminary conclusions about the role of the environmental factors in the rainfall conditions responsible for shallow landslides in Calabria. We further segmented the regional catalogue based on administrative subdivisions used for hydro-meteorological monitoring and operational flood forecasting, and we determined separate ED thresholds for the Tyrrhenian and the Ionian coasts of Calabria. We expect the ED rainfall thresholds for Calabria to be used in regional and national landslide warning systems. The thresholds can also be used for landslide hazard and risk assessments, and for erosion and landscape evolution studies, in the study area and in similar physiographic regions in the Mediterranean area

Loss of lag-response curvilinearity of indices of heart rate variability in congestive heart failure

BACKGROUND: Heart rate variability (HRV) is known to be impaired in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). Time-domain analysis of ECG signals traditionally relies heavily on linear indices of an essentially non-linear phenomenon. Poincaré plots are commonly used to study non-linear behavior of physiologic signals. Lagged Poincaré plots incorporate autocovariance information and analysis of Poincaré plots for various lags can provide interesting insights into the autonomic control of the heart. METHODS: Using Poincaré plot analysis, we assessed whether the relation of the lag between heart beats and HRV is altered in CHF. We studied the influence of lag on estimates of Poincaré plot indices for various lengths of beat sequence in a public domain data set (PhysioNet) of 29 subjects with CHF and 54 subjects with normal sinus rhythm. RESULTS: A curvilinear association was observed between lag and Poincaré plot indices (SD1, SD2, SDLD and SD1/SD2 ratio) in normal subjects even for a small sequence of 50 beats (p value for quadratic term 3 × 10(-5), 0.002, 3.5 × 10(-5 )and 0.0003, respectively). This curvilinearity was lost in patients with CHF even after exploring sequences up to 50,000 beats (p values for quadratic term > 0.5). CONCLUSION: Since lagged Poincaré plots incorporate autocovariance information, these analyses provide insights into the autonomic control of heart rate that is influenced by the non-linearity of the signal. The differences in lag-response in CHF patients and normal subjects exist even in the face of the treatment received by the CHF patients