Reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa: a model-based evaluation of intervention strategies.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decade malaria intervention coverage has been scaled up across Africa. However, it remains unclear what overall reduction in transmission is achievable using currently available tools. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed an individual-based simulation model for Plasmodium falciparum transmission in an African context incorporating the three major vector species (Anopheles gambiae s.s., An. arabiensis, and An. funestus) with parameters obtained by fitting to parasite prevalence data from 34 transmission settings across Africa. We incorporated the effect of the switch to artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT) and increasing coverage of long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) from the year 2000 onwards. We then explored the impact on transmission of continued roll-out of LLINs, additional rounds of indoor residual spraying (IRS), mass screening and treatment (MSAT), and a future RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in six representative settings with varying transmission intensity (as summarized by the annual entomological inoculation rate, EIR: 1 setting with low, 3 with moderate, and 2 with high EIRs), vector-species combinations, and patterns of seasonality. In all settings we considered a realistic target of 80% coverage of interventions. In the low-transmission setting (EIR approximately 3 ibppy [infectious bites per person per year]), LLINs have the potential to reduce malaria transmission to low levels (90%) or novel tools and/or substantial social improvements will be required, although considerable reductions in prevalence can be achieved with existing tools and realistic coverage levels. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions using current tools can result in major reductions in P. falciparum malaria transmission and the associated disease burden in Africa. Reduction to the 1% parasite prevalence threshold is possible in low- to moderate-transmission settings when vectors are primarily endophilic (indoor-resting), provided a comprehensive and sustained intervention program is achieved through roll-out of interventions. In high-transmission settings and those in which vectors are mainly exophilic (outdoor-resting), additional new tools that target exophagic (outdoor-biting), exophilic, and partly zoophagic mosquitoes will be required

Elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) with long-term ivermectin mass drug administration with or without vector control in sub-Saharan Africa:a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: WHO has proposed elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) by 2030. More than 99% of cases of onchocerciasis are in sub-Saharan Africa. Vector control and mass drug administration of ivermectin have been the main interventions for many years, with varying success. We aimed to identify factors associated with elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: For this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched for published articles reporting epidemiological or entomological assessments of onchocerciasis transmission status in sub-Saharan Africa, with or without vector control. We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, African Index Medicus, and Google Scholar databases for all articles published from database inception to Aug 19, 2023, without language restrictions. The search terms used were “onchocerciasis” AND “ivermectin” AND “mass drug administration”. The three inclusion criteria were (1) focus or foci located in Africa, (2) reporting of elimination of transmission or at least 10 years of ivermectin mass drug administration in the focus or foci, and (3) inclusion of at least one of the following assessments: microfilarial prevalence, nodule prevalence, Ov16 antibody seroprevalence, and blackfly infectivity prevalence. Epidemiological modelling studies and reviews were excluded. Four reviewers (NM, AJ, AM, and TNK) extracted data in duplicate from the full-text articles using a data extraction tool developed in Excel with columns recording the data of interest to be extracted, and a column where important comments for each study could be highlighted. We did not request any individual-level data from authors. Foci were classified as achieving elimination of transmission, being close to elimination of transmission, or with ongoing transmission. We used mixed-effects meta-regression models to identify factors associated with transmission status. This study is registered in PROSPERO, CRD42022338986. Findings: Of 1525 articles screened after the removal of duplicates, 75 provided 282 records from 238 distinct foci in 19 (70%) of the 27 onchocerciasis-endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Elimination of transmission was reported in 24 (9%) records, being close to elimination of transmission in 86 (30%) records, and ongoing transmission in 172 (61%) records. I2 was 83·3% (95% CI 79·7 to 86·3). Records reporting 10 or more years of continuous mass drug administration with 80% or more therapeutic coverage of the eligible population yielded significantly higher odds of achieving elimination of transmission (log-odds 8·5 [95% CI 3·5 to 13·5]) or elimination and being close to elimination of transmission (42·4 [18·7 to 66·1]) than those with no years achieving 80% coverage or more. Reporting 15–19 years of ivermectin mass drug administration (22·7 [17·2 to 28·2]) and biannual treatment (43·3 [27·2 to 59·3]) were positively associated with elimination and being close to elimination of transmission compared with less than 15 years and no biannual mass drug administration, respectively. Having had vector control without vector elimination (−42·8 [−59·1 to −26·5]) and baseline holoendemicity (−41·97 [−60·6 to −23·2]) were associated with increased risk of ongoing transmission compared with no vector control and hypoendemicity, respectively. Blackfly disappearance due to vector control or environmental change contributed to elimination of transmission. Interpretation: Mass drug administration duration, frequency, and coverage; baseline endemicity; and vector elimination or disappearance are important determinants of elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Our findings underscore the importance of improving and sustaining high therapeutic coverage and increasing treatment frequency if countries are to achieve elimination of onchocerciasis transmission. </p

Elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) with long-term ivermectin mass drug administration with or without vector control in sub-Saharan Africa:a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: WHO has proposed elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) by 2030. More than 99% of cases of onchocerciasis are in sub-Saharan Africa. Vector control and mass drug administration of ivermectin have been the main interventions for many years, with varying success. We aimed to identify factors associated with elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: For this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched for published articles reporting epidemiological or entomological assessments of onchocerciasis transmission status in sub-Saharan Africa, with or without vector control. We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, African Index Medicus, and Google Scholar databases for all articles published from database inception to Aug 19, 2023, without language restrictions. The search terms used were “onchocerciasis” AND “ivermectin” AND “mass drug administration”. The three inclusion criteria were (1) focus or foci located in Africa, (2) reporting of elimination of transmission or at least 10 years of ivermectin mass drug administration in the focus or foci, and (3) inclusion of at least one of the following assessments: microfilarial prevalence, nodule prevalence, Ov16 antibody seroprevalence, and blackfly infectivity prevalence. Epidemiological modelling studies and reviews were excluded. Four reviewers (NM, AJ, AM, and TNK) extracted data in duplicate from the full-text articles using a data extraction tool developed in Excel with columns recording the data of interest to be extracted, and a column where important comments for each study could be highlighted. We did not request any individual-level data from authors. Foci were classified as achieving elimination of transmission, being close to elimination of transmission, or with ongoing transmission. We used mixed-effects meta-regression models to identify factors associated with transmission status. This study is registered in PROSPERO, CRD42022338986. Findings: Of 1525 articles screened after the removal of duplicates, 75 provided 282 records from 238 distinct foci in 19 (70%) of the 27 onchocerciasis-endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Elimination of transmission was reported in 24 (9%) records, being close to elimination of transmission in 86 (30%) records, and ongoing transmission in 172 (61%) records. I2 was 83·3% (95% CI 79·7 to 86·3). Records reporting 10 or more years of continuous mass drug administration with 80% or more therapeutic coverage of the eligible population yielded significantly higher odds of achieving elimination of transmission (log-odds 8·5 [95% CI 3·5 to 13·5]) or elimination and being close to elimination of transmission (42·4 [18·7 to 66·1]) than those with no years achieving 80% coverage or more. Reporting 15–19 years of ivermectin mass drug administration (22·7 [17·2 to 28·2]) and biannual treatment (43·3 [27·2 to 59·3]) were positively associated with elimination and being close to elimination of transmission compared with less than 15 years and no biannual mass drug administration, respectively. Having had vector control without vector elimination (−42·8 [−59·1 to −26·5]) and baseline holoendemicity (−41·97 [−60·6 to −23·2]) were associated with increased risk of ongoing transmission compared with no vector control and hypoendemicity, respectively. Blackfly disappearance due to vector control or environmental change contributed to elimination of transmission. Interpretation: Mass drug administration duration, frequency, and coverage; baseline endemicity; and vector elimination or disappearance are important determinants of elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Our findings underscore the importance of improving and sustaining high therapeutic coverage and increasing treatment frequency if countries are to achieve elimination of onchocerciasis transmission. </p

Systematic review of studies generating individual participant data on the efficacy of drugs for treating soil-transmitted helminthiases and the case for data-sharing

Preventive chemotherapy and transmission control (PCT) by mass drug administration is the cornerstone of the World Health Organization (WHO)’s policy to control soil-transmitted helminthiases (STHs) caused by Ascaris lumbricoides (roundworm), Trichuris trichiura (whipworm) and hookworm species (Necator americanus and Ancylostama duodenale) which affect over 1 billion people globally. Despite consensus that drug efficacies should be monitored for signs of decline that could jeopardise the effectiveness of PCT, systematic monitoring and evaluation is seldom implemented. Drug trials mostly report aggregate efficacies in groups of participants, but heterogeneities in design complicate classical meta-analyses of these data. Individual participant data (IPD) permit more detailed analysis of drug efficacies, offering increased sensitivity to identify atypical responses potentially caused by emerging drug resistance

Modelling the impact of larviciding on the population dynamics and biting rates of Simulium damnosum (s.l.): implications for vector control as a complementary strategy for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa

Background: In 2012, the World Health Organization set goals for the elimination of onchocerciasis transmission by 2020 in selected African countries. Epidemiological data and mathematical modelling have indicated that elimination may not be achieved with annual ivermectin distribution in all endemic foci. Complementary and alternative treatment strategies (ATS), including vector control, will be necessary. Implementation of vector control will require that the ecology and population dynamics of Simulium damnosum sensu lato be carefully considered. Methods: We adapted our previous SIMuliid POPulation dynamics (SIMPOP) model to explore the impact of larvicidal insecticides on S. damnosum (s.l.) biting rates in different ecological contexts and to identify how frequently and for how long vector control should be continued to sustain substantive reductions in vector biting. SIMPOP was fitted to data from large-scale aerial larviciding trials in savannah sites (Ghana) and small-scale ground larviciding trials in forest areas (Cameroon). The model was validated against independent data from Burkina Faso/Côte d’Ivoire (savannah) and Bioko (forest). Scenario analysis explored the effects of ecological and programmatic factors such as pre-control daily biting rate (DBR) and larviciding scheme design on reductions and resurgences in biting rates. Results: The estimated efficacy of large-scale aerial larviciding in the savannah was greater than that of ground-based larviciding in the forest. Small changes in larvicidal efficacy can have large impacts on intervention success. At 93% larvicidal efficacy (a realistic value based on field trials), 10 consecutive weekly larvicidal treatments would reduce DBRs by 96% (e.g. from 400 to 16 bites/person/day). At 70% efficacy, and for 10 weekly applications, the DBR would decrease by 67% (e.g. from 400 to 132 bites/person/day). Larviciding is more likely to succeed in areas with lower water temperatures and where blackfly species have longer gonotrophic cycles. Conclusions: Focal vector control can reduce vector biting rates in settings where a high larvicidal efficacy can be achieved and an appropriate duration and frequency of larviciding can be ensured. Future work linking SIMPOP with onchocerciasis transmission models will permit evaluation of the impact of combined anti-vectorial and anti-parasitic interventions on accelerating elimination of the disease

New approaches to measuring anthelminthic drug efficacy: parasitological responses of childhood schistosome infections to treatment with praziquantel

By 2020, the global health community aims to control and eliminate human helminthiases, including schistosomiasis in selected African countries, principally by preventive chemotherapy (PCT) through mass drug administration (MDA) of anthelminthics. Quantitative monitoring of anthelminthic responses is crucial for promptly detecting changes in efficacy, potentially indicative of emerging drug resistance. Statistical models offer a powerful means to delineate and compare efficacy among individuals, among groups of individuals and among populations.; We illustrate a variety of statistical frameworks that offer different levels of inference by analysing data from nine previous studies on egg counts collected from African children before and after administration of praziquantel.; We quantify responses to praziquantel as egg reduction rates (ERRs), using different frameworks to estimate ERRs among population strata, as average responses, and within strata, as individual responses. We compare our model-based average ERRs to corresponding model-free estimates, using as reference the World Health Organization (WHO) 90 % threshold of optimal efficacy. We estimate distributions of individual responses and summarize the variation among these responses as the fraction of ERRs falling below the WHO threshold.; Generic models for evaluating responses to anthelminthics deepen our understanding of variation among populations, sub-populations and individuals. We discuss the future application of statistical modelling approaches for monitoring and evaluation of PCT programmes targeting human helminthiases in the context of the WHO 2020 control and elimination goals

Genome-wide analysis of ivermectin response by Onchocerca volvulus reveals that genetic drift and soft selective sweeps contribute to loss of drug sensitivity

Treatment of onchocerciasis using mass ivermectin administration has reduced morbidity and transmission throughout Africa and Central/South America. Mass drug administration is likely to exert selection pressure on parasites, and phenotypic and genetic changes in several Onchocerca volvulus populations from Cameroon and Ghana-exposed to more than a decade of regular ivermectin treatment-have raised concern that sub-optimal responses to ivermectin's anti-fecundity effect are becoming more frequent and may spread.Pooled next generation sequencing (Pool-seq) was used to characterise genetic diversity within and between 108 adult female worms differing in ivermectin treatment history and response. Genome-wide analyses revealed genetic variation that significantly differentiated good responder (GR) and sub-optimal responder (SOR) parasites. These variants were not randomly distributed but clustered in ~31 quantitative trait loci (QTLs), with little overlap in putative QTL position and gene content between the two countries. Published candidate ivermectin SOR genes were largely absent in these regions; QTLs differentiating GR and SOR worms were enriched for genes in molecular pathways associated with neurotransmission, development, and stress responses. Finally, single worm genotyping demonstrated that geographic isolation and genetic change over time (in the presence of drug exposure) had a significantly greater role in shaping genetic diversity than the evolution of SOR.This study is one of the first genome-wide association analyses in a parasitic nematode, and provides insight into the genomics of ivermectin response and population structure of O. volvulus. We argue that ivermectin response is a polygenically-determined quantitative trait (QT) whereby identical or related molecular pathways but not necessarily individual genes are likely to determine the extent of ivermectin response in different parasite populations. Furthermore, we propose that genetic drift rather than genetic selection of SOR is the underlying driver of population differentiation, which has significant implications for the emergence and potential spread of SOR within and between these parasite populations

Improving statistical inference on pathogen densities estimated by quantitative molecular methods: malaria gametocytaemia as a case study

BACKGROUND: Quantitative molecular methods (QMMs) such as quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR), reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) and quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (QT-NASBA) are increasingly used to estimate pathogen density in a variety of clinical and epidemiological contexts. These methods are often classified as semi-quantitative, yet estimates of reliability or sensitivity are seldom reported. Here, a statistical framework is developed for assessing the reliability (uncertainty) of pathogen densities estimated using QMMs and the associated diagnostic sensitivity. The method is illustrated with quantification of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytaemia by QT-NASBA. RESULTS: The reliability of pathogen (e.g. gametocyte) densities, and the accompanying diagnostic sensitivity, estimated by two contrasting statistical calibration techniques, are compared; a traditional method and a mixed model Bayesian approach. The latter accounts for statistical dependence of QMM assays run under identical laboratory protocols and permits structural modelling of experimental measurements, allowing precision to vary with pathogen density. Traditional calibration cannot account for inter-assay variability arising from imperfect QMMs and generates estimates of pathogen density that have poor reliability, are variable among assays and inaccurately reflect diagnostic sensitivity. The Bayesian mixed model approach assimilates information from replica QMM assays, improving reliability and inter-assay homogeneity, providing an accurate appraisal of quantitative and diagnostic performance. CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian mixed model statistical calibration supersedes traditional techniques in the context of QMM-derived estimates of pathogen density, offering the potential to improve substantially the depth and quality of clinical and epidemiological inference for a wide variety of pathogens

Serological Evaluation of Onchocerciasis and Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination in the Bakoye and Falémé foci, Mali

In Mali, ivermectin-based onchocerciasis elimination from the Bakoye and Falémé foci, reported in 2009–2012, was a beacon leading to policy shifting from morbidity control to elimination of transmission (EOT). These foci are also endemic for lymphatic filariasis (LF). In 2007–2016 mass ivermectin plus albendazole administration was implemented. We report Ov16 (onchocerciasis) and Wb123 (LF) seroprevalence after 24–25 years of treatment to evaluate if onchocerciasis EOT and LF elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) have been achieved