Strategic cost-shifting in long-term care. Evidence from the Netherlands

With the reform in 2015 of the system of long-term care (LTC) in the Netherlands, responsibilities for the provision of social support and assistance were delegated from the central government to the municipalities. Unintentionally, the way municipalities are financed created incentives to shift cost from the local level back to central level. In this paper we examine whether municipalities respond to the prevailing financial incentives by shifting costs to the public LTC insurance scheme. Using data on almost all Dutch municipalities over the period 2015–2019, we estimate that municipalities with a solvency rate below 20% have a 2.5% higher admission rate to the public LTC scheme. Furthermore, we show that the tightening municipal budgets for social care since 2017 were accompanied with about 14% higher admission rates in 2018 and 2019 compared to 2015. The results point to strategic cost shifting by municipalities that can be counteracted by changing the financial incentives for municipalities and by reducing the existing overlap between the local and central care domains

The chicken or the egg? Exploring bi-directional associations between Newcastle disease vaccination and village chicken flock size in rural Tanzania

Newcastle disease (ND) is a viral disease of poultry with global importance, responsible for the loss of a potential source of household nutrition and economic livelihood in many low-income food-deficit countries. Periodic outbreaks of this endemic disease result in high mortality amongst free-ranging chicken flocks and may serve as a disincentive for rural households to invest time or resources in poultry-keeping. Sustainable ND control can be achieved through vaccination using a thermotolerant vaccine administered via eyedrop by trained "community vaccinators". This article evaluates the uptake and outcomes of fee-for-service ND vaccination programs in eight rural villages in the semi-arid central zone of Tanzania. It represents part of an interdisciplinary program seeking to address chronic undernutrition in children through improvements to existing poultry and crop systems. Newcastle disease vaccination uptake was found to vary substantially across communities and seasons, with a significantly higher level of vaccination amongst households participating in a longitudinal study of children's growth compared with non-participating households (p = 0.009). Two multivariable model analyses were used to explore associations between vaccination and chicken numbers, allowing for clustered data and socioeconomic and cultural variation amongst the population. Results demonstrated that both (a) households that undertook ND vaccination had a significantly larger chicken flock size in the period between that vaccination campaign and the next compared with those that did not vaccinate (p = 0.018); and (b) households with larger chicken flocks at the time of vaccination were significantly more likely to participate in vaccination programs (p < 0.001). Additionally, households vaccinating in all three vaccination campaigns held over 12 months were identified to have significantly larger chicken flocks at the end of this period (p < 0.001). Opportunities to understand causality and complexity through quantitative analyses are limited, and there is a role for qualitative approaches to explore decisions made by poultry-keeping households and the motivations, challenges and priorities of community vaccinators. Evidence of a bi-directional relationship, however, whereby vaccination leads to greater chicken numbers, and larger flocks are more likely to be vaccinated, offers useful insights into the efficacy of fee-for-service animal health programs. This article concludes that attention should be focused on ways of supporting the participation of vulnerable households in ND vaccination campaigns, and encouraging regular vaccination throughout the year, as a pathway to strengthen food security, promote resilience and contribute to improved human nutrition

Magnetic versus crystal field linear dichroism in NiO thin films

We have detected strong dichroism in the Ni $L_{2,3}$ x-ray absorption spectra of monolayer NiO films. The dichroic signal appears to be very similar to the magnetic linear dichroism observed for thicker antiferromagnetic NiO films. A detailed experimental and theoretical analysis reveals, however, that the dichroism is caused by crystal field effects in the monolayer films, which is a non trivial effect because the high spin Ni $3d^{8}$ ground state is not split by low symmetry crystal fields. We present a practical experimental method for identifying the independent magnetic and crystal field contributions to the linear dichroic signal in spectra of NiO films with arbitrary thicknesses and lattice strains. Our findings are also directly relevant for high spin $3d^{5}$ and $3d^{3}$ systems such as LaFeO$_{3}$, Fe$_{2}$O$_{3}$, VO, LaCrO$_{3}$, Cr$_{2}$O$_{3}$, and Mn$^{4+}$ manganate thin films

Characterising infant and young child feeding practices and the consumption of poultry products in rural Tanzania: A mixed methods approach

Suboptimal breastfeeding practices, early initiation of complementary feeding, and monotonous cereal‐based diets have been implicated as contributors to continuing high rates of child undernutrition in sub‐Saharan Africa. Nutrition‐sensitive interventions, including agricultural programs that increase access to nutrient‐rich vegetables, legumes, and animal‐source foods, have the potential to achieve sustainable improvements in children's diets. In the quest to evaluate the efficacy of such programs in improving growth and development in the first 2 years of life, there is a role for mixed methods research to better understand existing infant and young child feeding practices. This analysis forms part of a longitudinal study assessing the impact of improvements to poultry health and crop production on diets and growth of 503 randomly selected children from eight rural communities in Manyoni District in central Tanzania. Using an explanatory sequential design, the quantitative phase of data collection was conducted between May 2014 and May 2016, comprising six monthly structured questionnaires, four monthly household‐level documentation of chicken and egg consumption, and fortnightly records of children's breastfeeding status. The subsequent qualitative phase involved in‐depth interviews with a subset of 39 mothers in October 2016. Breastfeeding was almost universal (96.8%) and of long duration (mean = 21.7 months, SD = 3.6), but early initiation of complementary feeding was also common (74.4%; mean = 4.0 months, SD = 1.8), overwhelmingly driven by maternal perceptions of insufficient milk supply (95.0%). Chicken and eggs were infrequently eaten, but close associations between maternal and child consumption patterns (p < .001) suggest the potential for strategies that increase household‐level consumption to bring nutritional benefits to young children

Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries: Hypothèses de projections stochastiquesàlong terme des populations de 18 pays européens

The aim of the ‘Uncertain Population of Europe’(UPE) project was to compute long-term stochastic (probabilistic) population forecasts for 18 European countries. We developed a general methodology for constructing predictive distributions for fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions underlying stochastic population forecasts can be assessed by analysing errors in past forecasts or model-based estimates of forecast errors, or by expert judgement. All three approaches have been used in the project. This article summarizes and discusses the results of the three approaches. It demonstrates how the—sometimes conflicting—results can be synthesized into a consistent set of assumptions about the expected levels and the uncertainty of total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth of men and women, and net migration for 18 European countries

The public health importance and management of infectious poultry diseases in smallholder systems in Africa

Poultry diseases pose major constraints on smallholder production in Africa, causing high flock mortality and economic hardship. Infectious diseases, especially viral diseases like Newcastle disease and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and bacterial diseases, especially colibacillosis and salmonellosis, are responsible for most chicken losses, with downstream effects on human nutrition and health. Beyond production impacts, poultry diseases directly harm public health if zoonotic, can give rise to epidemics and pandemics, and facilitate antimicrobial resistance through treatment attempts. HPAI, campylobacteriosis, and salmonellosis are the priority zoonoses. Sustainable solutions for poultry health remain elusive despite recognition of the problem. This review summarises current knowledge on major poultry diseases in smallholder systems, their impacts, and options for prevention and control. We find biosecurity, vaccination, good husbandry, and disease-resistant breeds can reduce disease burden, but practical limitations exist in implementing these measures across smallholder systems. Treatment is often inefficient for viral diseases, and treatment for bacterial diseases risks antimicrobial resistance. Ethnoveterinary practices offer accessible alternatives but require more rigorous evaluation. Multisectoral collaboration and policies that reach smallholder poultry keepers are essential to alleviate disease constraints. Successful control will improve livelihoods, nutrition, and gender equity for millions of rural families. This review concludes that sustainable, scalable solutions for smallholder poultry disease control remain a critical unmet need in Africa

Evolution of viral variants in remdesivir-treated and untreated SARS-CoV-2-infected pediatrics patients

Detailed information on intrahost viral evolution in SARS-CoV-2 with and without treatment is limited. Sequential viral loads and deep sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from the upper respiratory tract of nine hospitalized children, three of whom were treated with remdesivir, revealed that remdesivir treatment suppressed viral load in one patient but not in a second infected with an identical strain without any evidence of drug resistance found. Reduced levels of subgenomic RNA during treatment of the second patient, suggest an additional effect of remdesivir on viral replication. Haplotype reconstruction uncovered persistent SARS-CoV-2 variant genotypes in four patients. These likely arose from within-host evolution, although superinfection cannot be excluded in one case. Although our dataset is small, observed sample-to-sample heterogeneity in variant frequencies across four of nine patients suggests the presence of discrete viral populations in the lung with incomplete population sampling in diagnostic swabs. Such compartmentalization could compromise the penetration of remdesivir into the lung, limiting the drugs in vivo efficacy, as has been observed in other lung infections

A rapid assessment framework for food system shocks: lessons learned from COVID-19 in the Indo-Pacific region

The frequency and severity of shocks to food systems is accelerating globally, exemplified by the current COVID-19 outbreak. In low- and middle-income countries, the impacts have exacerbated existing food system vulnerabilities and poverty. Governments and donors must respond quickly, but few tools are available that identify interventions to build food system resilience, or emerging opportunities for transformation. In this paper we reflect on the application of a systems-based rapid assessment which we applied across 11 Indo-Pacific countries in May-July 2020. Our approach was shaped by three design parameters: the integration of key informants’ perspectives engaged remotely within the countries, applicability to diverse food systems and COVID-19 experiences across the region, and the consideration of food systems as complex systems. For the rapid assessment we adopted an analytical framework proposed by Allen and Prosperi (2016). To include a development lens, we added the analysis of vulnerable groups and their exposure, impacts, recovery potential and resilience, and pro-poor interventions. We concluded that the framework and approach facilitated integration and triangulation of disparate knowledge types and data to identify priority interventions and was sufficiently flexible to be applied across food systems, at both national, sub-national and commodity scales. The step-wise method was simple and enabled structured inquiry and reporting. Although the systems concepts appeared more easily transferrable to key informants in some countries than others, potentially transformational interventions were identified, and also some risks of maladaptation. We present a refined framework that emphasises analysis of political, economic and institutional drivers of exposure and vulnerability, the constraints that they pose for building recovery potential and resilience, and trade-offs amongst winners and losers inherent in proposed interventions