A possible sequence of events for the generalized glacial-interglacial cycle

There is not yet widespread agreement as to the underlying cause of the 80– 100 ppmv roughly 100-kyr-duration glacial-interglacial cycles in atmospheric pCO2. Most of the mechanisms which have been proposed to account for the observed pCO2 variations appear to in some way violate interpretations of paleo proxy data. The inability of a single mechanism to explain the observed cycles in atmospheric CO2 (which show amazing similarity over the past 430,000 years) is perplexing, and leads us to consider whether a combination of mechanisms might be consistent with available evidence. Consistent with previous work, we find that physical changes (ocean circulation, temperature, mixing) can only explain part of the observed atmospheric pCO2 variability; changes in ocean chemistry are invoked to explain the remainder. In order to account for the initial pCO2 drawdown (from ‘‘interglacial’’ to ‘‘intermediate’’ levels), we invoke physical changes in the ocean (mixing, temperature). The transition from intermediate atmospheric pCO2 levels to full glacial conditions involves a small increase in mean ocean nutrient levels and mean ocean alkalinity, accomplished by falling sea level and subsequent erosion of organic-rich shelf sediments. The first part of the transition out of full glacial conditions is achieved through increased temperature and increased mixing in the Southern Ocean. The final part of the atmospheric pCO2 rise up to full interglacial conditions is accomplished through rising sea level and the subsequent change in mean ocean alkalinity and phosphate, and a rise in the Northern Hemisphere temperature and ocean mixing. The proposed sequence of events is consistent with most existing proxy evidence for paleo-nutrient levels and changes in export production over the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Furthermore, it is consistent with evidence for a whole-ocean shift in d13C toward significantly more negative values in the late glacial. The proposed scenario is also consistent with ice core-based timing constraints, as summarized by Broecker and Henderson (1998). We show that we are able to explain the full magnitude of the glacial-interglacial cycle in atmospheric pCO2 without the need to invoke iron-fertilization in the Southern Ocean

Recent changes in the air-sea gas exchange of methyl chloroform

Atmospheric measurements of methyl chloroform provide important constraints on the rate of oxidation of hydrocarbons in Earth's atmosphere. Estimates of the loss of methyl chloroform to the oceans play a small but important role in these calculations. Here, we examine the ocean-atmosphere interaction of methyl chloroform in a global ocean model. Contrary to previous assumptions, these simulations suggest that the high-latitude oceans are currently a source of this chemical to the atmosphere. If confirmed, this finding alters estimates of the change in the atmospheric oxidation rate of hydrocarbons. We highlight the potential usefulness of methyl chloroform as a tracer of ocean circulation

The CCSM4 ocean component

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 25 (2012): 1361–1389, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00091.1.The ocean component of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) is described, and its solutions from the twentieth-century (20C) simulations are documented in comparison with observations and those of CCSM3. The improvements to the ocean model physical processes include new parameterizations to represent previously missing physics and modifications of existing parameterizations to incorporate recent new developments. In comparison with CCSM3, the new solutions show some significant improvements that can be attributed to these model changes. These include a better equatorial current structure, a sharper thermocline, and elimination of the cold bias of the equatorial cold tongue all in the Pacific Ocean; reduced sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity biases along the North Atlantic Current path; and much smaller potential temperature and salinity biases in the near-surface Pacific Ocean. Other improvements include a global-mean SST that is more consistent with the present-day observations due to a different spinup procedure from that used in CCSM3. Despite these improvements, many of the biases present in CCSM3 still exist in CCSM4. A major concern continues to be the substantial heat content loss in the ocean during the preindustrial control simulation from which the 20C cases start. This heat loss largely reflects the top of the atmospheric model heat loss rate in the coupled system, and it essentially determines the abyssal ocean potential temperature biases in the 20C simulations. There is also a deep salty bias in all basins. As a result of this latter bias in the deep North Atlantic, the parameterized overflow waters cannot penetrate much deeper than in CCSM3.NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. The CCSM is also sponsored by the Department of Energy. SGY was supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office under Climate Variability and Predictability Program Grant NA09OAR4310163.2012-09-0

Subtropical mode water variability in a climatologically forced model in the northwestern Pacific Ocean

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 42 (2012): 126–140, doi:10.1175/2011JPO4513.1.A climatologically forced high-resolution model is used to examine variability of subtropical mode water (STMW) in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Despite the use of annually repeating atmospheric forcing, significant interannual to decadal variability is evident in the volume, temperature, and age of STMW formed in the region. This long time-scale variability is intrinsic to the ocean. The formation and characteristics of STMW are comparable to those observed in nature. STMW is found to be cooler, denser, and shallower in the east than in the west, but time variations in these properties are generally correlated across the full water mass. Formation is found to occur south of the Kuroshio Extension, and after formation STMW is advected westward, as shown by the transport streamfunction. The ideal age and chlorofluorocarbon tracers are used to analyze the life cycle of STMW. Over the full model run, the average age of STMW is found to be 4.1 yr, but there is strong geographical variation in this, from an average age of 3.0 yr in the east to 4.9 yr in the west. This is further evidence that STMW is formed in the east and travels to the west. This is qualitatively confirmed through simulated dye experiments known as transit-time distributions. Changes in STMW formation are correlated with a large meander in the path of the Kuroshio south of Japan. In the model, the large meander inhibits STMW formation just south of Japan, but the export of water with low potential vorticity leads to formation of STMW in the east and an overall increase in volume. This is correlated with an increase in the outcrop area of STMW. Mixed layer depth, on the other hand, is found to be uncorrelated with the volume of STMW.E.M.D. acknowledges support of the Doherty Foundation and National Science Foundation (OCE-0849808). S.R.J was sponsored by the National Science Foundation (OCE-0849808). Participation of S.P. and F.B. was supported by the National Science Foundation by its sponsorship of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.2012-07-0

On the possible long-term fate of oil released in the Deepwater Horizon incident, estimated using ensembles of dye release simulations

We have conducted an ensemble of 20 simulations using a high resolution global ocean model in which dye was continuously injected at the site of the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig for two months. We then extended these simulations for another four months to track the dispersal of the dye in the model. We have also performed five simulations in which dye was continuously injected at the site of the spill for four months and then run them out to one year from the initial spill date. The experiments can elucidate the approximate timescales and space scales of dispersal of polluted waters and also give a quantitative estimate of the dilution rate. Given the uncertainty in rates of chemical or biological degradation for oil or an oil–dispersant mixture, we do not include a decay term for the dye. Thus, these results should be considered an absolute upper bound on the possible spatial extent of the dispersal of oil or oil–dispersant mixture. The model results indicate that it is likely that oil-polluted waters from the Deepwater Horizon incident will, at some time over the six months following the initial spill date, be transported at relatively low concentrations over a significant part of the North-West Atlantic Ocean. However, this does not imply that oil will reach the eastern shores of North America, or that it will even be detectable. We present probabilities for the transport timescales and estimates of ensemble mean arrival times, and we briefly discuss the likely dispersion timescales and pathways of dye released in the subsurface ocean

A new look at ocean ventilation time scales and their uncertainties

A suite of eddy‐resolving ocean transient tracer model simulations are first compared to observations. Observational and model pCFC‐11 ages agree quite well, with the eddy‐resolving model adding detail. The CFC ages show that the thermocline is a barrier to interior ocean exchange with the atmosphere on time scales of 45 years, the measureable CFC transient, although there are exceptions. Next, model simulations are used to quantify effects on tracer ages of the spatial dependence of internal ocean tracer variability due to stirring from eddies and biases from nonstationarity of the atmospheric transient when there is mixing. These add to tracer age uncertainties and biases, which are large in frontal boundary regions, and small in subtropical gyre interiors. These uncertainties and biases are used to reinterpret observed temporal trends in tracer‐derived ventilation time scales taken from observations more than a decade apart, and to assess whether interpretations of changes in tracer ages being due to changes in ocean ventilation hold water. For the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres, we infer that the rate of ocean ventilation 26–27.2 σθ increased between the mid‐1990s and the decade of the 2000s. However, between the mid‐1990s and the decade of the 2010s, there is no significant trend—perhaps except for South Atlantic. Observed age/AOU/ventilation changes are linked to a combination of natural cycles and climate change, and there is regional variability. Thus, for the future it is not clear how strong or steady in space and time ocean ventilation changes will be. Key Points Eddy‐resolving simulations quantifying ocean variability and biases from tracers are used to reinterpret temporal trends in ventilation Ocean ventilation increased in southern subtropical gyres between mid‐1990s and 2000s, while between mid‐1990s and 2010s there was no trend Observed age/ventilation changes are linked to a combination of natural cycles and climate change and there is regional variabilit

Twentieth-Century Oceanic Carbon Uptake and Storage in CESM1(BGC)*

Ocean carbon uptake and storage simulated by the Community Earth System Model, version 1–Biogeochemistry [CESM1(BGC)], is described and compared to observations. Fully coupled and ocean-ice configurations are examined; both capture many aspects of the spatial structure and seasonality of surface carbon fields. Nearly ubiquitous negative biases in surface alkalinity result from the prescribed carbonate dissolution profile. The modeled sea–air CO2 fluxes match observationally based estimates over much of the ocean; significant deviations appear in the Southern Ocean. Surface ocean pCO2 is biased high in the subantarctic and low in the sea ice zone. Formation of the water masses dominating anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) uptake in the Southern Hemisphere is weak in the model, leading to significant negative biases in Cant and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) storage at intermediate depths. Column inventories of Cant appear too high, by contrast, in the North Atlantic. In spite of the positive bias, this marks an improvement over prior versions of the model, which underestimated North Atlantic uptake. The change in behavior is attributable to a new parameterization of density-driven overflows. CESM1(BGC) provides a relatively robust representation of the ocean–carbon cycle response to climate variability. Statistical metrics of modeled interannual variability in sea–air CO2 fluxes compare reasonably well to observationally based estimates. The carbon cycle response to key modes of climate variability is basically similar in the coupled and forced ocean-ice models; however, the two differ in regional detail and in the strength of teleconnections

Problems and prospects of regional economy development in the period of sanctions

Analysis of economic and political consequences of the sanctions against Russia, analysis of the dependence of different economy sectors of this country on imports and the possibility of its substitution by domestic products is an important task. In this connection we study the economic situation of the regions of the Russian Federation under the conditions of Western sanctions on the formation import substitution. At present import substitution is the indicator of technological progress in Russia which is one of the priorities of economic development in the near future. The examples of the negative impact of sanctions on the economy of Russia and Western countries are presented. First of all, sanctions imposed limit access of European and American investors to long-term debt instruments. Special attention is given to innovative development of Russia which largely depends on the effective implementation of its infrastructure transformation by establishing a system for the efficient reallocation of financial resources towards innovation programs, as well as the active participation of the credit institutions, investment companies, venture capital funds, mutual insurance companies. The timely measure is linking of innovative and regional policy of the development of the subjects with their own resources and investors, an attractive environment for foreign investment. Directions of the confrontation to sanctions are determined. Issues relating to economic sanctions are of particular importance in the present conditions where the interdependence of national economies is associated with formation of the economic space. The possible scenarios of domestic economic development are formulated. The discussed issues of import substitution at the present stage, including at the stage of the actions of Russian sanctions, should be applied for the reorientation of the regional economy and the restoration of the destroyed production in the 1990s