The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

An observation: Could the spread of Adenovirus in South Asia pose a hazard to global public health?

Abstract Background One of the most pressing issues in healthcare today is the prevention of Adenovirus (AdV) infections. Children and the elderly, both of whom have weaker immune systems than healthy adults, are more vulnerable to infection. Discussion India has been the epicenter of a recent AdV epidemic in the South Asian area. Most of the nations, bordering India are still developing and have very low per capita incomes, yet their citizens often cross into India for trade, medical care, and vacation. Conclusion We are concerned that an epidemic of the AdV might occur in the Indian subcontinent, spread to other nations, and eventually affect the whole world if effective preventative and diagnostic measures are not taken

Characterization of phytoconstituents and evaluation of total phenolic content, anthelmintic, and antimicrobial activities of Solanum violaceum Ortega. (Family:Solanaceae)

Objective: The present study was conducted to detect possible chemicals (phytoconstituents), prove ethno-medicinal value of the plant, and investigate antimicrobial, anthelmintic, and total phenolic content of crude methanolic extract of the Solanum violaceum plant.  Materials and Methods: Phytochemical screening was carried out using different chemical group test methods. In anthelmintic activity test (using Pheretima posthuma model), five concentrations (10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 80 mg/ml in distilled water) of extracts and albendazole as standard were used which involved the vermifuge and vermicidal activity on the worms. For the evaluation of in vitro antimicrobial activity, disc diffusion method, and to determine the total phenolic content, Folin-Ceocalteu method (gallic acid as standard) were used.   Results: The phytoconstituent analysis revealed presence of alkaloids, carbohydrate, glycoside, flavonoid, saponin, gum, diterpenes, phenol, protein, and tannin. The crude extract exhibited significant anthelmintic property comparing with the standard. The methanolic extract revealed broad-spectrum antimicrobial activity at the concentration of 400 µg/disc. The results were compared with that of the standard ciprofloxacin. The extract exhibited moderate amount of total phenolic compound (54.67±1.18 mg/gm of gallic acid equivalent). Conclusion: Since S. violaceum have shown antimicrobial, antioxidant, and anthelmintic activities, more studies such as anti-inflammatory, analgesic, antipyretic, and other pharmacological activities should be carried out to justify its traditional use, as the plant is available and used broadly in the rural areas for folkloric remedies.

In vivo antipyretic, antiemetic, in vitro membrane stabilization, antimicrobial, and cytotoxic activities of different extracts from Spilanthes paniculata leaves

BACKGROUND: The study was conducted to evaluate the in vitro antimicrobial activity, cytotoxic, and membrane stabilization activities, and in vivo antiemetic and antipyretic potentials of ethanolic extract, n-hexane and ethyl acetate soluble fractions of Spilanthes paniculata leaves for the first time widely used in the traditional treatments in Bangladesh. RESULTS: In antipyretic activity assay, a significant reduction (P < 0.05) was observed in the temperature in the mice tested. At dose 400 mg/kg-body weight, the n-hexane soluble fraction showed the effect (36.7 ± 0.63°C ) as like as the standard (dose 150 mg/kg-body weight) after 5 h of administration. Extracts showed significant (P < 0.001) potential when tested for the antiemetic activity compared to the standard, metoclopramide. At dose 50 mg/kg-body weight, the standard showed 67.23% inhibition, whereas n-hexane and ethyl acetate soluble fractions showed 37.53% and 24.93% inhibition of emesis respectively at dose 400 mg/kg-body weight. In antimicrobial activity assay, the n-hexane soluble fraction (400 µg/disc) showed salient activity against the tested organisms. It exerts highest activity against Salmonella typhi (16.9 mm zone of inhibition); besides, crude, and ethyl acetate extracts showed resistance to Bacillus cereus and Bacillus subtilis, and Vibrio cholera respectively. All the extracts were tested for lysis of the erythrocytes. At the concentration of 1mg/ml, ethanol extract, and n-hexane and ethyl acetate soluble fractions significantly inhibited hypotonic solution induced lysis of the human red blood cell (HRBC) (27.406 ± 3.57, 46.034 ± 3.251, and 30.72 ± 5.679% respectively); where standard drug acetylsalicylic acid (concentration 0.1 mg/ml) showed 77.276 ± 0.321% inhibition. In case of heat induced HRBC hemolysis, the plant extracts also showed significant activity (34.21 ± 4.72, 21.81 ± 3.08, and 27.62 ± 8.79% inhibition respectively). In the brine shrimp lethality bioassay, the n-hexane fraction showed potent (LC50 value 48.978 µg/ml) activity, whereas ethyl acetate fraction showed mild (LC50 value 216.77 µg/ml) cytotoxic activity. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that the n-hexane extract has better effects than the other in all trials. In the context, it can be said that the leaves of S. paniculata possess remarkable pharmacological effects, and justify its folkloric use as antimicrobial, antipyretic, anti-inflammatory, and antiemetic agent. Therefore, further research may be suggested to find possible mode of action of the plant part