Evidence cross-validation and Bayesian inference of MAST plasma equilibria

In this paper, current profiles for plasma discharges on the Mega-Ampere Spherical Tokamak (MAST) are directly calculated from pickup coil, flux loop and Motional-Stark Effect (MSE) observations via methods based in the statistical theory of Bayesian analysis. By representing toroidal plasma current as a series of axisymmetric current beams with rectangular cross-section and inferring the current for each one of these beams, flux-surface geometry and q-profiles are subsequently calculated by elementary application of Biot-Savart's law. The use of this plasma model in the context of Bayesian analysis was pioneered by Svensson and Werner on the Joint-European Tokamak (JET) [J. Svensson and A. Werner. Current tomography for axisymmetric plasmas. Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion, 50(8):085002, 2008]. In this framework, linear forward models are used to generate diagnostic predictions, and the probability distribution for the currents in the collection of plasma beams was subsequently calculated directly via application of Bayes' formula. In this work, we introduce a new diagnostic technique to identify and remove outlier observations associated with diagnostics falling out of calibration or suffering from an unidentified malfunction. These modifications enable good agreement between Bayesian inference of the last closed flux-surface (LCFS) with other corroborating data, such as such as that from force balance considerations using EFIT++ [L. Appel et al., Proc. 33rd EPS Conf., Rome, Italy, 2006]. In addition, this analysis also yields errors on the plasma current profile and flux-surface geometry, as well as directly predicting the Shafranov shift of the plasma core.This work was jointly funded by the Australian Government through International Science Linkages Grant No. CG130047, the Australian National University, the United Kingdom Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council under Grant No. EP/G003955, and by the European Communities under the contract of Association between EURATOM and CCFE

Radiation Front Sweeping the Ambient Medium of Gamma-Ray Bursts

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are emitted by relativistic ejecta from powerful cosmic explosions. Their light curves suggest that the gamma-ray emission occurs at early stages of the ejecta expansion, well before it decelerates in the ambient medium. If so, the launched gamma-ray front must overtake the ejecta and sweep the ambient medium outward. As a result a gap is opened between the ejecta and the medium that surfs the radiation front ahead. Effectively, the ejecta moves in a cavity until it reaches a radius R_{gap}=10^{16}E_{54}^{1/2} cm where E is the isotropic energy of the GRB. At R=R_{gap} the gap is closed, a blast wave forms and collects the medium swept by radiation. Further development of the blast wave is strongly affected by the leading radiation front: the front plays the role of a precursor where the medium is loaded with e+- pairs and preaccelerated just ahead of the blast. It impacts the emission from the blast at R < R_{load}=5R_{gap} (the early afterglow). A spectacular observational effect results: GRB afterglows should start in optical/UV and evolve fast (< min) to a normal X-ray afterglow. The early optical emission observed in GRB 990123 may be explained in this way. The impact of the front is especially strong if the ambient medium is a wind from a massive progenitor of the GRB. In this case three phenomena are predicted: (1) The ejecta decelerates at R<R_{load} producing a lot of soft radiation. (2) The light curve of soft emission peaks at t_{peak}=40(1+z)E_{54}^{1/2}(Gamma_{ej}/100)^{-2} s where Gamma_{ej} is the Lorentz factor of the ejecta. Given measured redshift z and t_{peak}, one finds Gamma_{ej}. (3) The GRB acquires a spectral break at 5 - 50 MeV because harder photons are absorbed by radiation scattered in the wind.Comment: 20 pages, accepted to Ap

Quasi-thermal Comptonization and gamma-ray bursts

Quasi-thermal Comptonization in internal shocks formed between relativistic shells can account for the high energy emission of gamma-ray bursts. This is in fact the dominant cooling mechanism if the typical energy of the emitting particles is achieved either through the balance between heating and cooling or as a result of electron-positron pair production. Both processes yield sub or mildly relativistic energies. In this case the synchrotron spectrum is self-absorbed, providing the seed soft photons for the Comptonization process, whose spectrum is flat [F(v) ~ const], ending either in an exponential cutoff or a Wien peak, depending on the scattering optical depth of the emitting particles. Self-consistent particle energy and optical depth are estimated and found in agreement with the observed spectra.Comment: 10 pages, ApJ Letters, accepted for publicatio

Allergic Rhinoconjunctivitis: the Role of Histamine

Allergic rhinoconjunctivitis is the most common atopic condition encountered in clinical practice. Analysis of the pathogenesis of this condition permits identification of optimal therapeutic targets. The increased knowledge of the underlying pathophysiology suggests that multiple inflammatory mediators are involved in the pathogenesis of the allergic reaction in the ocular and nasal mucosa. However, despite the presence of a wide range of different mediators, it would appear that histamine plays a key role. Experimental allergen challenge studies have demonstrated that histamine is the only mediator which produces the full spectrum of clinical manifestations of the acute allergic reaction when applied to the mucosal surface. While both H1- and H2-receptors are present in the nasal and ocular mucosa, only H1-receptor antagonists are capable of inhibiting histamine-induced symptoms of allergic rhinoconjunctivitis. Furthermore, although the exact role of histamine in the immediate and prolonged allergic reaction has not yet been fully elucidated, these findings do not exclude the possibility that histamine is involved in these processes. The available evidence therefore supports current clinical practice for use of H1-receptor antagonist as a first-line therapy in patients with this atopic condition

Emission Spectra from Internal Shocks in Gamma-Ray-Burst Sources

Unsteady activity of gamma-ray burst sources leads to internal shocks in their emergent relativistic wind. We study the emission spectra from such shocks, assuming that they produce a power-law distribution of relativistic electrons and posses strong magnetic fields. The synchrotron radiation emitted by the accelerated electrons is Compton up-scattered multiple times by the same electrons. A substantial component of the scattered photons acquires high energies and produces e+e- pairs. The pairs transfer back their kinetic energy to the radiation through Compton scattering. The generic spectral signature from pair creation and multiple Compton scattering is highly sensitive to the radius at which the shock dissipation takes place and to the Lorentz factor of the wind. The entire emission spectrum extends over a wide range of photon energies, from the optical regime up to TeV energies. For reasonable values of the wind parameters, the calculated spectrum is found to be in good agreement with the burst spectra observed by BATSE.Comment: 12 pages, latex, 2 figures, submitted to ApJ

Money in monetary policy design: monetary cross-checking in the New-Keynesian model

In the New-Keynesian model, optimal interest rate policy under uncertainty is formulated without reference to monetary aggregates as long as certain standard assumptions on the distributions of unobservables are satisfied. The model has been criticized for failing to explain common trends in money growth and inflation, and that therefore money should be used as a cross-check in policy formulation (see Lucas (2007)). We show that the New-Keynesian model can explain such trends if one allows for the possibility of persistent central bank misperceptions. Such misperceptions motivate the search for policies that include additional robustness checks. In earlier work, we proposed an interest rate rule that is near-optimal in normal times but includes a cross-check with monetary information. In case of unusual monetary trends, interest rates are adjusted. In this paper, we show in detail how to derive the appropriate magnitude of the interest rate adjustment following a significant cross-check with monetary information, when the New-Keynesian model is the central bank’s preferred model. The cross-check is shown to be effective in offsetting persistent deviations of inflation due to central bank misperceptions. Keywords: Monetary Policy, New-Keynesian Model, Money, Quantity Theory, European Central Bank, Policy Under Uncertaint

Bayesian Road Estimation Using Onboard Sensors

This paper describes an algorithm for estimating the road ahead of a host vehicle based on the measurements from several onboard sensors: a camera, a radar, wheel speed sensors,and an inertial measurement unit.We propose a novel road model that is able to describe the road ahead with higher accuracy than the usual polynomial model. We also develop a Bayesian fusionsystem that uses the following information from the surroundings: lane marking measurements obtained by the camera and leading vehicle and stationary object measurements obtained bya radar–camera fusion system. The performance of our fusion algorithm is evaluated in several drive tests. As expected, the more information we use, the better the performance is.Index Terms—Camera, information fusion, radar, road geometry,unscented Kalman filter (UKF)

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The aluminum–zinc-vacancy (Al Zn −V Zn ) complex is identified as one of the dominant defects in Al-containing n -type ZnO after electron irradiation at room temperature with energies above 0.8 MeV. The complex is energetically favorable over the isolated V Zn , binding more than 90% of the stable V Zn ’s generated by the irradiation. It acts as a deep acceptor with the (0/− ) energy level located at approximately 1 eV above the valence band. Such a complex is concluded to be a defect of crucial and general importance that limits the n -type doping efficiency by complex formation with donors, thereby literally removing the donors, as well as by charge compensation