Meta-analysis of continuous outcomes: using pseudo IPD created from aggregate data to adjust for baseline imbalance and assess treatment-by-baseline modification.

Meta-analysis of individual participant data (IPD) is considered the "gold-standard" for synthesizing clinical study evidence. However, gaining access to IPD can be a laborious task (if possible at all) and in practice only summary (aggregate) data are commonly available. In this work we focus on meta-analytic approaches of comparative studies where aggregate data are available for continuous outcomes measured at baseline (pre-treatment) and follow-up (post-treatment). We propose a method for constructing pseudo individual baselines and outcomes based on the aggregate data. These pseudo IPD can be subsequently analysed using standard analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) methods. Pseudo IPD for continuous outcomes reported at two timepoints can be generated using the sufficient statistics of an ANCOVA model i.e., the mean and standard deviation at baseline and follow-up per group, together with the correlation of the baseline and follow-up measurements. Applying the ANCOVA approach, which crucially adjusts for baseline imbalances and accounts for the correlation between baseline and change scores, to the pseudo IPD results in identical estimates to the ones obtained by an ANCOVA on the true IPD. In addition, an interaction term between baseline and treatment effect can be added. There are several modelling options available under this approach, which makes it very flexible. Methods are exemplified using reported data of a previously published IPD metaanalysis of 10 trials investigating the effect of antihypertensive treatments on systolic blood pressure, leading to identical results compared with the true IPD analysis and of a meta-analysis of fewer trials, where baseline imbalance occurred. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Measurement of Creep Deformation across Welds in 316H Stainless Steel Using Digital Image Correlation

Spatially resolved measurement of creep deformation across weldments at high temperature cannot be achieved using standard extensometry approaches. In this investigation, a Digital Image Correlation (DIC) based system has been developed for long-term high-temperature creep strain measurement in order to characterise the material deformation behaviour of separate regions of a multi-pass weld. The optical system was sufficiently stable to allow a sequence of photographs to be taken suitable for DIC analysis of creep specimens tested at a temperature of 545 °C for over 2000 h. The images were analysed to produce local creep deformation curves from two cross-weld samples cut from contrasting regions of a multi-pass V-groove weld joining thick-section AISI Type 316H austenitic stainless steel. It is shown that for this weld, the root pass is the weakest region of the structure in creep, most likely due to the large number of thermal cycles it has experienced during the fabrication process. The DIC based measurement method offers improved spatial resolution over conventional methods and greatly reduces the amount of material required for creep characterisation of weldments

Considering the role of cognitive control in expert performance

© 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Dreyfus and Dreyfus’ (1986) influential phenomenological analysis of skill acquisition proposes that expert performance is guided by non-cognitive responses which are fast, effortless and apparently intuitive in nature. Although this model has been criticised (e.g., by Breivik Journal of Philosophy of Sport, 34, 116–134 2007, Journal of the Philosophy of Sport, 40, 85–106 2013; Eriksen 2010; Montero Inquiry:An interdisciplinary Journal of Philosophy, 53, 105–122 2010; Montero and Evans 2011) for over-emphasising the role that intuition plays in facilitating skilled performance, it does recognise that on occasions (e.g., when performance goes awry for some reason) a form of ‘detached deliberative rationality’ may be used by experts to improve their performance. However, Dreyfus and Dreyfus (1986) see no role for calculative problem solving or deliberation (i.e., drawing on rules or mental representations) when performance is going well. In the current paper, we draw on empirical evidence, insights from athletes, and phenomenological description to argue that ‘continuous improvement’ (i.e., the phenomenon whereby certain skilled performers appear to be capable of increasing their proficiency even though they are already experts; Toner and Moran 2014) among experts is mediated by cognitive (or executive) control in three distinct sporting situations (i.e., in training, during pre-performance routines, and while engaged in on-line skill execution). We conclude by arguing that Sutton et al. Journal of the British Society for Phenomenology, 42, 78–103 (2011) ‘applying intelligence to the reflexes’ (AIR) approach may help to elucidate the process by which expert performers achieve continuous improvement through analytical/mindful behaviour during training and competition

Metabolic state alters economic decision making under risk in humans

Background: Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores). Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable) food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry), and safe (less variable) food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regions strongly implicated in risk and reward based decision-making in humans. Despite this, physiological influences per se have not been considered previously to influence economic decisions in humans. We hypothesised that baseline metabolic reserves and alterations in metabolic state would systematically modulate decision-making and financial risk-taking in humans. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used a controlled feeding manipulation and assayed decision-making preferences across different metabolic states following a meal. To elicit risk-preference, we presented a sequence of 200 paired lotteries, subjects' task being to select their preferred option from each pair. We also measured prandial suppression of circulating acyl-ghrelin (a centrally-acting orexigenic hormone signalling acute nutrient intake), and circulating leptin levels (providing an assay of energy reserves). We show both immediate and delayed effects on risky decision-making following a meal, and that these changes correlate with an individual's baseline leptin and changes in acyl-ghrelin levels respectively. Conclusions/Significance: We show that human risk preferences are exquisitely sensitive to current metabolic state, in a direction consistent with ecological models of feeding behaviour but not predicted by normative economic theory. These substantive effects of state changes on economic decisions perhaps reflect shared evolutionarily conserved neurobiological mechanisms. We suggest that this sensitivity in human risk-preference to current metabolic state has significant implications for both real-world economic transactions and for aberrant decision-making in eating disorders and obesity

Decreased aortic growth and middle aortic syndrome in patients with neuroblastoma after radiation therapy

Background: Long-term CT follow-up studies are required in pediatric patients who have received intraoperative radiation therapy (IORT) and external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) to assess vascular toxicities and to determine the exact complication rate. Objective: To analyze with CT the effects of radiation therapy (RT) on the growth of the aorta in neuroblastoma patients.Materials and methods Abdominal CT scans of 31 patients with intraabdominal neuroblastoma (stage II–IV), treated with RT (20 IORT±EBRT, 11 EBRT alone), were analyzed retrospectively. The diameter of the abdominal aorta was measured before and after RT. These data were compared to normal and predicted normal aortic diameters of children, according to the model of Fitzgerald, Donaldson and Poznanski (aortic diameter in centimeters = 0.844 + 0.0599 × age in years), and to the diameters of a control group of children who had not undergone RT. Statistical analyses for the primary aims were performed using the chi-squared test, t-test, Mann-Whitney test, nonparametric Wilcoxon matched-pairs test and analysis of variance for repeated measures. Clinical files and imaging studies were evaluated for signs of late vascular complications of neuroblastoma patients who had received RT. Results: The mean diameter before and after RT and the growth of the aorta were significantly lower than expected in patients with neuroblastoma (P<0.05 for each) and when compared to the growth in a control group with normal and nonirradiated aortas. Among the patients who had received RT, there was no difference due to the type of RT. Seven patients from the IORT±EBRT group developed vascular complications, which included hypertension (five), middle aortic syndrome (two), death due to mesenteric ischemia (one) and critical aortic stenosis, which required aortic bypass surgery (two).Conclusion Patients with neuroblastoma who had received RT showed impaired growth of the abdominal aorta. Significant long-term vascular complications occurred in seven patients who received IORT±EBRT. Thus, CT evaluation of patients with neuroblastoma who receive RT should include not only reports of changes in tumor extension, but also documentation of perfusion, and the size and growth of the aorta and its branches over time

Angular and Current-Target Correlations in Deep Inelastic Scattering at HERA

Correlations between charged particles in deep inelastic ep scattering have been studied in the Breit frame with the ZEUS detector at HERA using an integrated luminosity of 6.4 pb-1. Short-range correlations are analysed in terms of the angular separation between current-region particles within a cone centred around the virtual photon axis. Long-range correlations between the current and target regions have also been measured. The data support predictions for the scaling behaviour of the angular correlations at high Q2 and for anti-correlations between the current and target regions over a large range in Q2 and in the Bjorken scaling variable x. Analytic QCD calculations and Monte Carlo models correctly describe the trends of the data at high Q2, but show quantitative discrepancies. The data show differences between the correlations in deep inelastic scattering and e+e- annihilation.Comment: 26 pages including 10 figures (submitted to Eur. J. Phys. C

Plastisol Foaming Process. Decomposition of the Foaming Agent, Polymer Behavior in the Corresponding Temperature Range and Resulting Foam Properties

The decomposition of azodicarbonamide, used as foaming agent in PVC - plasticizer (1/1) plastisols was studied by DSC. Nineteen different plasticizers, all belonging to the ester family, two being polymeric (polyadipates), were compared. The temperature of maximum decomposition rate (in anisothermal regime at 5 K min-1 scanning rate), ranges between 434 and 452 K. The heat of decomposition ranges between 8.7 and 12.5 J g -1. Some trends of variation of these parameters appear significant and are discussed in terms of solvent (matrix) and viscosity effects on the decomposition reactions. The shear modulus at 1 Hz frequency was determined at the temperature of maximum rate of foaming agent decomposition, and differs significantly from a sample to another. The foam density was determined at ambient temperature and the volume fraction of bubbles was used as criterion to judge the efficiency of the foaming process. The results reveal the existence of an optimal shear modulus of the order of 2 kPa that corresponds roughly to plasticizer molar masses of the order of 450 ± 50 g mol-1. Heavier plasticizers, especially polymeric ones are too difficult to deform. Lighter plasticizers such as diethyl phthalate (DEP) deform too easily and presumably facilitate bubble collapse

Alendronate and atrial fibrillation: a meta-analysis of randomized placebo-controlled clinical trials

Bone and mineral researc