Variability of Atlantic Ocean heat transport and its effects on the atmosphere

The variability of the Atlantic meridional Ocean Heat Transport (OHT) has been diagnosed from a simulation of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, and the mechanisms responsible for this variability have been elucidated. It has been demonstrated that the interannual variability in Atlantic OHT is dominated by windstress-driven Ekman fluctuations. In contrast, the decadal and multidecadal variability is associated with the fluctuations of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC), driven by the fluctuations in deep convection over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Sea. The fluctuations of OHT induce Ocean Heat Content (OHC), and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. The SST anomalies, in turn, have an impact on the atmosphere. The lead-lag relationships between the fluctuations of THC-related OHT and those of OHC and SST raise the possibility that a knowledge of OHT fluctuations could be used to predict variations in Atlantic Sea surface temperatures, and perhaps aspects of climate, several years in advance. A comparison of results from a second, independent, coupled model simulation is also presented, and similar conclusions reached

Predicting Future Instance Segmentation by Forecasting Convolutional Features

Anticipating future events is an important prerequisite towards intelligent behavior. Video forecasting has been studied as a proxy task towards this goal. Recent work has shown that to predict semantic segmentation of future frames, forecasting at the semantic level is more effective than forecasting RGB frames and then segmenting these. In this paper we consider the more challenging problem of future instance segmentation, which additionally segments out individual objects. To deal with a varying number of output labels per image, we develop a predictive model in the space of fixed-sized convolutional features of the Mask R-CNN instance segmentation model. We apply the "detection head'" of Mask R-CNN on the predicted features to produce the instance segmentation of future frames. Experiments show that this approach significantly improves over strong baselines based on optical flow and repurposed instance segmentation architectures

Scattering and Diffraction in Magnetospheres of Fast Pulsars

We apply a theory of wave propagation through a turbulent medium to the scattering of radio waves in pulsar magnetospheres. We find that under conditions of strong density modulation the effects of magnetospheric scintillations in diffractive and refractive regimes may be observable. The most distinctive feature of the magnetospheric scintillations is their independence on frequency. Results based on diffractive scattering due to small scale inhomogeneities give a scattering angle that may be as large as 0.1 radians, and a typical decorrelation time of $10^{-8}$ seconds. Refractive scattering due to large scale inhomogeneities is also possible, with a typical angle of $10^{-3}$ radians and a correlation time of the order of $10^{-4}$ seconds. Temporal variation in the plasma density may also result in a delay time of the order of $10^{-4}$ seconds. The different scaling of the above quantities with frequency may allow one to distinguish the effects of propagation through a pulsar magnetosphere from the interstellar medium. In particular, we expect that the magnetospheric scintillations are relatively more important for nearby pulsars when observed at high frequencies.Comment: 19 pages, 1 Figur

Temperature dependence of surface reconstructions of Au on Pd(110)

Surface reconstructions of Au film on Pd(110) substrate are studied using a local Einstein approximation to quasiharmonic theory with the Sutton-Chen interatomic potential. Temperature dependent surface free energies for different coverages and surface structures are calculated. Experimentally observed transformations from $(1\times1)$ to $(1 \times 2)$ and $(1 \times 3)$ structures can be explained in the framework of this model. Also conditions for Stranski-Krastanov growth mode are found to comply with experiments. The domain of validity of the model neglecting mixing entropy is analyzed.Comment: 7 pages, REVTeX two-column format, 3 postscript figures available on request from [email protected] To appear in Phys. Rev. Letter

Differential contribution of PB1-F2 to the virulence of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A virus in mammalian and avian species

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A viruses (HPAIV) of the H5N1 subtype occasionally transmit from birds to humans and can cause severe systemic infections in both hosts. PB1-F2 is an alternative translation product of the viral PB1 segment that was initially characterized as a pro-apoptotic mitochondrial viral pathogenicity factor. A full-length PB1-F2 has been present in all human influenza pandemic virus isolates of the 20(th) century, but appears to be lost evolutionarily over time as the new virus establishes itself and circulates in the human host. In contrast, the open reading frame (ORF) for PB1-F2 is exceptionally well-conserved in avian influenza virus isolates. Here we perform a comparative study to show for the first time that PB1-F2 is a pathogenicity determinant for HPAIV (A/Viet Nam/1203/2004, VN1203 (H5N1)) in both mammals and birds. In a mammalian host, the rare N66S polymorphism in PB1-F2 that was previously described to be associated with high lethality of the 1918 influenza A virus showed increased replication and virulence of a recombinant VN1203 H5N1 virus, while deletion of the entire PB1-F2 ORF had negligible effects. Interestingly, the N66S substituted virus efficiently invades the CNS and replicates in the brain of Mx+/+ mice. In ducks deletion of PB1-F2 clearly resulted in delayed onset of clinical symptoms and systemic spreading of virus, while variations at position 66 played only a minor role in pathogenesis. These data implicate PB1-F2 as an important pathogenicity factor in ducks independent of sequence variations at position 66. Our data could explain why PB1-F2 is conserved in avian influenza virus isolates and only impacts pathogenicity in mammals when containing certain amino acid motifs such as the rare N66S polymorphism

Optimal Image Reconstruction in Radio Interferometry

We introduce a method for analyzing radio interferometry data which produces maps which are optimal in the Bayesian sense of maximum posterior probability density, given certain prior assumptions. It is similar to maximum entropy techniques, but with an exact accounting of the multiplicity instead of the usual approximation involving Stirling's formula. It also incorporates an Occam factor, automatically limiting the effective amount of detail in the map to that justified by the data. We use Gibbs sampling to determine, to any desired degree of accuracy, the multi-dimensional posterior density distribution. From this we can construct a mean posterior map and other measures of the posterior density, including confidence limits on any well-defined function of the posterior map.Comment: 41 pages, 11 figures. High resolution figures 8 and 9 available at http://www.astro.uiuc.edu/~bwandelt/SuttonWandelt200

Non-Gaussian Radio-Wave Scattering in the Interstellar Medium

It was recently suggested by Boldyrev & Gwinn that the characteristics of radio scintillations from distant pulsars are best understood if the interstellar electron-density fluctuations that cause the time broadening of the radio pulses obey non-Gaussian statistics. In this picture the density fluctuations are inferred to be strong on very small scales ($\sim 10^8-10^{10} {cm}$). We argue that such density structures could correspond to the ionized boundaries of molecular regions (clouds) and demonstrate that the power-law distribution of scattering angles that is required to match the observations arises naturally from the expected intersections of our line of sight with randomly distributed, thin, approximately spherical ionized shells of this type. We show that the observed change in the time-broadening behavior for pulsar dispersion measures $\lesssim 30 {\rm pc} {\rm cm}^{-3}$ is consistent with the expected effect of the general ISM turbulence, which should dominate the scattering for nearby pulsars. We also point out that if the clouds are ionized by nearby stars, then their boundaries may become turbulent on account of an ionization front instability. This turbulence could be an alternative cause of the inferred density structures. An additional effect that might contribute to the strength of the small-scale fluctuations in this case is the expected flattening of the turbulent density spectrum when the eddy sizes approach the proton gyroscale.Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures, accepted to Ap

Evolutionary Algorithms with Self-adjusting Asymmetric Mutation

Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) and other randomized search heuristics are often considered as unbiased algorithms that are invariant with respect to different transformations of the underlying search space. However, if a certain amount of domain knowledge is available the use of biased search operators in EAs becomes viable. We consider a simple (1+1) EA for binary search spaces and analyze an asymmetric mutation operator that can treat zero- and one-bits differently. This operator extends previous work by Jansen and Sudholt (ECJ 18(1), 2010) by allowing the operator asymmetry to vary according to the success rate of the algorithm. Using a self-adjusting scheme that learns an appropriate degree of asymmetry, we show improved runtime results on the class of functions OneMax$_a$ describing the number of matching bits with a fixed target $a\in\{0,1\}^n$.Comment: 16 pages. An extended abstract of this paper will be published in the proceedings of PPSN 202

Variability of the North Atlantic summer storm track: mechanisms and impacts on European climate

The summertime variability of the extratropical storm track over the Atlantic sector and its links to European climate have been analysed for the period 1948–2011 using observations and reanalyses. The main results are as follows. (1) The dominant mode of the summer storm track density variability is characterized by a meridional shift of the storm track between two distinct paths and is related to a bimodal distribution in the climatology for this region. It is also closely related to the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). (2) A southward shift is associated with a downstream extension of the storm track and a decrease in blocking frequency over the UK and northwestern Europe. (3) The southward shift is associated with enhanced precipitation over the UK and northwestern Europe and decreased precipitation over southern Europe (contrary to the behaviour in winter). (4) There are strong ocean–atmosphere interactions related to the dominant mode of storm track variability. The atmosphere forces the ocean through anomalous surface fluxes and Ekman currents, but there is also some evidence consistent with an ocean influence on the atmosphere, and that coupled ocean–atmosphere feedbacks might play a role. The ocean influence on the atmosphere may be particularly important on decadal timescales, related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)