Upper Limits from Counting Experiments with Multiple Pipelines

In counting experiments, one can set an upper limit on the rate of a Poisson process based on a count of the number of events observed due to the process. In some experiments, one makes several counts of the number of events, using different instruments, different event detection algorithms, or observations over multiple time intervals. We demonstrate how to generalize the classical frequentist upper limit calculation to the case where multiple counts of events are made over one or more time intervals using several (not necessarily independent) procedures. We show how different choices of the rank ordering of possible outcomes in the space of counts correspond to applying different levels of significance to the various measurements. We propose an ordering that is matched to the sensitivity of the different measurement procedures and show that in typical cases it gives stronger upper limits than other choices. As an example, we show how this method can be applied to searches for gravitational-wave bursts, where multiple burst-detection algorithms analyse the same data set, and demonstrate how a single combined upper limit can be set on the gravitational-wave burst rate.Comment: 26 pages (CQG style), 8 figures. Added study of robustness of limits

Systematic review and meta-analysis. small intestinal bacterial overgrowth in chronic pancreatitis

BACKGROUND: Evidence on small intestinal bacterial overgrowth (SIBO) in patients with chronic pancreatitis (CP) is conflicting. AIM: The purpose of this study was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis on the prevalence of SIBO in CP and to examine the relationship of SIBO with symptoms and nutritional status. METHODS: Case-control and cross-sectional studies investigating SIBO in CP patients were analysed. The prevalence of positive tests was pooled across studies, and the rate of positivity between CP cases and controls was calculated. RESULTS: In nine studies containing 336 CP patients, the pooled prevalence of SIBO was 36% (95% confidence interval (CI) 17-60%) with considerable heterogeneity (I2 = 91%). A sensitivity analysis excluding studies employing lactulose breath test gave a pooled prevalence of 21.7% (95% CI 12.7-34.5%) with lower heterogeneity (I2 = 56%). The odds ratio for a positive test in CP vs controls was 4.1 (95% CI 1.6-10.4) (I2 = 59.7%). The relationship between symptoms and SIBO in CP patients varied across studies, and the treatment of SIBO was associated with clinical improvement. CONCLUSIONS: One-third of CP patients have SIBO, with a significantly increased risk over controls, although results are heterogeneous, and studies carry several limitations. The impact of SIBO and its treatment in CP patients deserve further investigation

Simple threshold rules solve explore/exploit trade‐offs in a resource accumulation search task

How, and how well, do people switch between exploration and exploitation to search for and accumulate resources? We study the decision processes underlying such exploration/exploitation trade‐offs using a novel card selection task that captures the common situation of searching among multiple resources (e.g., jobs) that can be exploited without depleting. With experience, participants learn to switch appropriately between exploration and exploitation and approach optimal performance. We model participants' behavior on this task with random, threshold, and sampling strategies, and find that a linear decreasing threshold rule best fits participants' results. Further evidence that participants use decreasing threshold‐based strategies comes from reaction time differences between exploration and exploitation; however, participants themselves report non‐decreasing thresholds. Decreasing threshold strategies that “front‐load” exploration and switch quickly to exploitation are particularly effective in resource accumulation tasks, in contrast to optimal stopping problems like the Secretary Problem requiring longer exploration

Variability of Atlantic Ocean heat transport and its effects on the atmosphere

The variability of the Atlantic meridional Ocean Heat Transport (OHT) has been diagnosed from a simulation of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, and the mechanisms responsible for this variability have been elucidated. It has been demonstrated that the interannual variability in Atlantic OHT is dominated by windstress-driven Ekman fluctuations. In contrast, the decadal and multidecadal variability is associated with the fluctuations of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC), driven by the fluctuations in deep convection over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Sea. The fluctuations of OHT induce Ocean Heat Content (OHC), and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. The SST anomalies, in turn, have an impact on the atmosphere. The lead-lag relationships between the fluctuations of THC-related OHT and those of OHC and SST raise the possibility that a knowledge of OHT fluctuations could be used to predict variations in Atlantic Sea surface temperatures, and perhaps aspects of climate, several years in advance. A comparison of results from a second, independent, coupled model simulation is also presented, and similar conclusions reached

Impurity segregation in graphene nanoribbons

The electronic properties of low-dimensional materials can be engineered by doping, but in the case of graphene nanoribbons (GNR) the proximity of two symmetry-breaking edges introduces an additional dependence on the location of an impurity across the width of the ribbon. This introduces energetically favorable locations for impurities, leading to a degree of spatial segregation in the impurity concentration. We develop a simple model to calculate the change in energy of a GNR system with an arbitrary impurity as that impurity is moved across the ribbon and validate its findings by comparison with ab initio calculations. Although our results agree with previous works predicting the dominance of edge disorder in GNR, we argue that the distribution of adsorbed impurities across a ribbon may be controllable by external factors, namely an applied electric field. We propose that this control over impurity segregation may allow manipulation and fine-tuning of the magnetic and transport properties of GNRs.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, submitte

Predicting Future Instance Segmentation by Forecasting Convolutional Features

Anticipating future events is an important prerequisite towards intelligent behavior. Video forecasting has been studied as a proxy task towards this goal. Recent work has shown that to predict semantic segmentation of future frames, forecasting at the semantic level is more effective than forecasting RGB frames and then segmenting these. In this paper we consider the more challenging problem of future instance segmentation, which additionally segments out individual objects. To deal with a varying number of output labels per image, we develop a predictive model in the space of fixed-sized convolutional features of the Mask R-CNN instance segmentation model. We apply the "detection head'" of Mask R-CNN on the predicted features to produce the instance segmentation of future frames. Experiments show that this approach significantly improves over strong baselines based on optical flow and repurposed instance segmentation architectures

Test Results of the RS-44 Integrated Component Evaluator Liquid Oxygen/Hydrogen Rocket Engine

An advanced LOX/LH2 expander cycle rocket engine, producing 15,000 lbf thrust for Orbital Transfer Vehicle missions, was tested to determine ignition, transition, and main stage characteristics. Detail design and fabrication of the pump fed RS44 integrated component evaluator (ICE) was accomplished using company discretionary resources and was tested under this contracted effort. Successful demonstrations were completed to about the 50 percent fuel turbopump power level (87,000 RPM), but during this last test, a high pressure fuel turbopump (HPFTP) bearing failed curtailing the test program. No other hardware were affected by the HPFTP premature shutdown. The ICE operations matched well with the predicted start transient simulations. The tests demonstrated the feasibility of a high performance advanced expander cycle engine. All engine components operated nominally, except for the HPFTP, during the engine hot-fire tests. A failure investigation was completed using company discretionary resources

Josephson Coupling through a Quantum Dot

We derive, via fourth order perturbation theory, an expression for the Josephson current through a gated interacting quantum dot. We analyze our expression for two different models of the superconductor-dot-superconductor (SDS) system. When the matrix elements connecting dot and leads are featureless constants, we compute the Josephson coupling J_c as a function of the gate voltage and Coulomb interaction. In the diffusive dot limit, we compute the probability distribution P(J_c) of Josephson couplings. In both cases, pi junction behavior (J_c < 0) is possible, and is not simply dependent on the parity of the dot occupancy.Comment: 9 pages; 3 encapsulated PostScript figure

Evolution of the Pairwise Peculiar Velocity Distribution Function in Lagrangian Perturbation Theory

The statistical distribution of the radial pairwise peculiar velocity of galaxies is known to have an exponential form as implied by observations and explicitly shown in N-body simulations. Here we calculate its statistical distribution function using the Zel'dovich approximation assuming that the primordial density fluctuations are Gaussian distributed. We show that the exponential distribution is realized as a transient phenomena on megaparsec scales in the standard cold-dark-matter model.Comment: 19 pages, 8 Postscript figures, AAS LaTe