Climate change: Why the conspiracy theories are dangerous

Uncertainty surrounds the public understanding of climate change and provides fertile ground for conspiracy theories. Typically, such conspiracy theories assert that climate scientists and politicians are distorting or hijacking the science to suit their own purposes. Climate change conspiracy theories resemble other conspiracy theories in some respects, but in others they appear to be quite different. For example, climate change conspiracy theories appear to be motivated by the desire to deny or minimize an unwelcome and threatening conclusion. They also appear to be more contentious than other types of conspiracy theories. Perhaps to an unparalleled extent, people on both sides of the issue champion climate change conspiracy theories. Finally, more than other conspiracy theories, those concerning climate change appear to be more politically loaded, dividing opinion across the left-right continuum. Some empirical evidence suggests that climate change conspiracy theories may be harmful, steering people away from environmentally friendly initiatives. They therefore present a significant challenge for governments and environmental organizations that are attempting to convince people to take action against global warming

Online optimal and adaptive integral tracking control for varying discrete‐time systems using reinforcement learning

Conventional closed‐form solution to the optimal control problem using optimal control theory is only available under the assumption that there are known system dynamics/models described as differential equations. Without such models, reinforcement learning (RL) as a candidate technique has been successfully applied to iteratively solve the optimal control problem for unknown or varying systems. For the optimal tracking control problem, existing RL techniques in the literature assume either the use of a predetermined feedforward input for the tracking control, restrictive assumptions on the reference model dynamics, or discounted tracking costs. Furthermore, by using discounted tracking costs, zero steady‐state error cannot be guaranteed by the existing RL methods. This article therefore presents an optimal online RL tracking control framework for discrete‐time (DT) systems, which does not impose any restrictive assumptions of the existing methods and equally guarantees zero steady‐state tracking error. This is achieved by augmenting the original system dynamics with the integral of the error between the reference inputs and the tracked outputs for use in the online RL framework. It is further shown that the resulting value function for the DT linear quadratic tracker using the augmented formulation with integral control is also quadratic. This enables the development of Bellman equations, which use only the system measurements to solve the corresponding DT algebraic Riccati equation and obtain the optimal tracking control inputs online. Two RL strategies are thereafter proposed based on both the value function approximation and the Q‐learning along with bounds on excitation for the convergence of the parameter estimates. Simulation case studies show the effectiveness of the proposed approach

Should we screen for the sexually-transmitted infection Mycoplasma genitalium? Evidence synthesis using a transmission-dynamic model

There is increasing concern about Mycoplasma genitalium as a cause of urethritis, cervicitis, pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), infertility and ectopic pregnancy. Commercial nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) are becoming available, and their use in screening for M. genitalium has been advocated, but M. genitalium's natural history is poorly-understood, making screening's effectiveness unclear. We used a transmission-dynamic compartmental model to synthesise evidence from surveillance data and epidemiological and behavioural studies to better understand M. genitalium's natural history, and then examined the effects of implementing NAAT testing. Introducing NAAT testing initially increases diagnoses, by finding a larger proportion of infections; subsequently the diagnosis rate falls, due to reduced incidence. Testing only symptomatic patients finds relatively little infection in women, as a large proportion is asymptomatic. Testing both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients has a much larger impact and reduces cumulative PID incidence in women due to M. genitalium by 31.1% (95% range:13.0%-52.0%) over 20 years. However, there is important uncertainty in M. genitalium's natural history parameters, leading to uncertainty in the absolute reduction in PID and sequelae. Empirical work is required to improve understanding of key aspects of M. genitalium's natural history before it will be possible to determine the effectiveness of screening

Context-aware Approach for Determining the Threshold Price in Name-Your-Own-Price Channels

Key feature of a context-aware application is the ability to adapt based on the change of context. Two approaches that are widely used in this regard are the context-action pair mapping where developers match an action to execute for a particular context change and the adaptive learning where a context-aware application refines its action over time based on the preceding action’s outcome. Both these approaches have limitation which makes them unsuitable in situations where a context-aware application has to deal with unknown context changes. In this paper we propose a framework where adaptation is carried out via concurrent multi-action evaluation of a dynamically created action space. This dynamic creation of the action space eliminates the need for relying on the developers to create context-action pairs and the concurrent multi-action evaluation reduces the adaptation time as opposed to the iterative approach used by adaptive learning techniques. Using our reference implementation of the framework we show how it could be used to dynamically determine the threshold price in an e-commerce system which uses the name-your-own-price (NYOP) strategy

B Cells Regulate Neutrophilia during Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection and BCG Vaccination by Modulating the Interleukin-17 Response

We have previously demonstrated that B cells can shape the immune response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis, including the level of neutrophil infiltration and granulomatous inflammation at the site of infection. The present study examined the mechanisms by which B cells regulate the host neutrophilic response upon exposure to mycobacteria and how neutrophilia may influence vaccine efficacy. To address these questions, a murine aerosol infection tuberculosis (TB) model and an intradermal (ID) ear BCG immunization mouse model, involving both the μMT strain and B cell-depleted C57BL/6 mice, were used. IL (interleukin)-17 neutralization and neutrophil depletion experiments using these systems provide evidence that B cells can regulate neutrophilia by modulating the IL-17 response during M. tuberculosis infection and BCG immunization. Exuberant neutrophilia at the site of immunization in B cell-deficient mice adversely affects dendritic cell (DC) migration to the draining lymph nodes and attenuates the development of the vaccine-induced Th1 response. The results suggest that B cells are required for the development of optimal protective anti-TB immunity upon BCG vaccination by regulating the IL-17/neutrophilic response. Administration of sera derived from M. tuberculosis-infected C57BL/6 wild-type mice reverses the lung neutrophilia phenotype in tuberculous μMT mice. Together, these observations provide insight into the mechanisms by which B cells and humoral immunity modulate vaccine-induced Th1 response and regulate neutrophila during M. tuberculosis infection and BCG immunization. © 2013 Kozakiewicz et al

Catastrophizing mediates the relationship between the personal belief in a just world and pain outcomes among chronic pain support group attendees

Health-related research suggests the belief in a just world can act as a personal resource that protects against the adverse effects of pain and illness. However, currently, little is known about how this belief, particularly in relation to one’s own life, might influence pain. Consistent with the suggestions of previous research, the present study undertook a secondary data analysis to investigate pain catastrophizing as a mediator of the relationship between the personal just world belief and chronic pain outcomes in a sample of chronic pain support group attendees. Partially supporting the hypotheses, catastrophizing was negatively correlated with the personal just world belief and mediated the relationship between this belief and pain and disability, but not distress. Suggestions for future research and intervention development are made

Chromatographic and spectral studies of jetsam and archived ambergris

<p>We describe determination of the dichloromethane-soluble components of 12 samples of the natural product, ambergris, using capillary gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS). Ambergris is produced <i>in vivo</i> in about 1% of Sperm whales and is used in perfumery and for odour fixation. Whilst descriptions of ambergris chemistry appeared until about 40 years ago, few accounts of analyses of whole extracts of multiple samples of ambergris by GC–MS have been published before. As expected, our analyses revealed that the major component (up to 97% of the dichloromethane-soluble material) was ambrein, with co-occurring, variable proportions of steroids. Moreover, we report apparently for the first time, mass spectra and retention indices of derivatised ambrein. These data should now allow reliable, rapid confirmation of even small amounts of jetsam, archived museum and customs samples of ambergris and an assessment of ambergris ‘quality’.</p

Game theory of mind

This paper introduces a model of ‘theory of mind’, namely, how we represent the intentions and goals of others to optimise our mutual interactions. We draw on ideas from optimum control and game theory to provide a ‘game theory of mind’. First, we consider the representations of goals in terms of value functions that are prescribed by utility or rewards. Critically, the joint value functions and ensuing behaviour are optimised recursively, under the assumption that I represent your value function, your representation of mine, your representation of my representation of yours, and so on ad infinitum. However, if we assume that the degree of recursion is bounded, then players need to estimate the opponent's degree of recursion (i.e., sophistication) to respond optimally. This induces a problem of inferring the opponent's sophistication, given behavioural exchanges. We show it is possible to deduce whether players make inferences about each other and quantify their sophistication on the basis of choices in sequential games. This rests on comparing generative models of choices with, and without, inference. Model comparison is demonstrated using simulated and real data from a ‘stag-hunt’. Finally, we note that exactly the same sophisticated behaviour can be achieved by optimising the utility function itself (through prosocial utility), producing unsophisticated but apparently altruistic agents. This may be relevant ethologically in hierarchal game theory and coevolution

Is nebulized saline a placebo in COPD?

BACKGROUND: Many trials of nebulized therapy have used nebulized saline as a "placebo". However, nebulized isotonic saline is sometimes used to assist sputum expectoration and relieve breathlessness in COPD patients. We designed this study to establish if nebulized saline had a placebo effect or a clinical effect. METHODS: 40 patients were studied following hospital admission for exacerbated COPD (mean FEV1 30% predicted). Patients were randomised to single-blind administration of either 4 mls of nebulized isotonic saline using an efficient nebulizer (active group n = 20) or an inefficient nebulizer (placebo group n = 20). Spirometry and subjective breathlessness scores (Modified Likert Scale) were measured before nebulized treatment and 10 minutes after treatment. RESULTS: There was no significant change in FEV1 after active or placebo nebulized saline treatment. Patients reported a 4% improvement in mean breathlessness score following placebo (Wilcoxon test; p = 0.37) compared with 23% improvement following active nebulized saline (p = 0.0001). 65% of patients given active nebulized saline but only 5% of the placebo group reported that mucus expectoration was easier after the treatment. CONCLUSIONS: This study lends support to the current use of nebulized saline to relieve breathlessness (possibly by facilitating sputum clearance) in COPD patients. Lung function was not affected. Nebulized saline can therefore be used as a placebo in bronchodilator studies involving COPD patients but it cannot be used as a placebo in trials assessing symptom relief

Helium-oxygen reduces the production of carbon dioxide during weaning from mechanical ventilation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prolonged weaning from mechanical ventilation has a major impact on ICU bed occupancy and patient outcome, and has significant cost implications.</p> <p>There is evidence in patients around the period of extubation that helium-oxygen leads to a reduction in the work of breathing. Therefore breathing helium-oxygen during weaning may be a useful adjunct to facilitate weaning. We hypothesised that breathing helium-oxygen would reduce carbon dioxide production during the weaning phase of mechanical ventilation.</p> <p>Materials/patients and methods</p> <p>We performed a prospective randomised controlled single blinded cross-over trial on 19 adult intensive care patients without significant airways disease who fulfilled criteria for weaning with CPAP. Patients were randomised to helium-oxygen and air-oxygen delivered during a 2 hour period of CPAP ventilation. Carbon dioxide production (VCO₂) was measured using a near patient main stream infrared carbon dioxide sensor and fixed orifice pneumotachograph.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Compared to air-oxygen, helium-oxygen significantly decreased VCO₂production at the end of the 2 hour period of CPAP ventilation; there was a mean difference in CO₂production of 48.9 ml/min (95% CI 18.7-79.2 p = 0.003) between the groups. There were no significant differences in other respiratory and haemodynamic parameters.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study shows that breathing a helium-oxygen mixture during weaning reduces carbon dioxide production. This physiological study supports the need for a clinical trial of helium-oxygen mixture during the weaning phase of mechanical ventilation with duration of weaning as the primary outcome.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ISRCTN56470948</p