Comparison of stochastic and deterministic models for gambiense sleeping sickness at different spatial scales : a health area analysis in the DRC

The intensification of intervention activities against the fatal vector-borne disease gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT, sleeping sickness) in the last two decades has led to a large decline in the number of annually reported cases. However, while we move closer to achieving the ambitious target of elimination of transmission (EoT) to humans, pockets of infection remain, and it becomes increasingly important to quantitatively assess if different regions are on track for elimination, and where intervention efforts should be focused. We present a previously developed stochastic mathematical model for gHAT in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and show that this same formulation is able to capture the dynamics of gHAT observed at the health area level (approximately 10,000 people). This analysis was the first time any stochastic gHAT model has been fitted directly to case data and allows us to better quantify the uncertainty in our results. The analysis focuses on utilising a particle filter Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology to fit the model to the data from 16 health areas of Mosango health zone in Kwilu province as a case study. The spatial heterogeneity in cases is reflected in modelling results, where we predict that under the current intervention strategies, the health area of Kinzamba II, which has approximately one third of the health zone’s cases, will have the latest expected year for EoT. We find that fitting the analogous deterministic version of the gHAT model using MCMC has substantially faster computation times than fitting the stochastic model using pMCMC, but produces virtually indistinguishable posterior parameterisation. This suggests that expanding health area fitting, to cover more of the DRC, should be done with deterministic fits for efficiency, but with stochastic projections used to capture both the parameter and stochastic variation in case reporting and elimination year estimations

The Returns to Criminal Capital

Human capital theory (Becker 1962; Mincer 1958; Schultz 1960; 1961) posits that individuals can increase their labor market returns through investments in education and training. This concept has been studied extensively across several disciplines. An analog concept of criminal capital, while the focus of speculation and limited empirical study, remains considerably less developed theoretically and methodologically. This paper offers a formal theoretical model of criminal capital indicators and tests for greater illegal wage returns using a sample of serious adolescent offenders, many of whom participate in illegal income-generating activities. Our results reveal that, consistent with human capital theory, there are important illegal wage premiums associated with investments in criminal capital, notably an increasing but declining marginal return to experience and a premium for specialization. Further, as in studies of legal labor markets, we find strong evidence that, if left unaccounted for, non-random sample selection causes severe bias in models of illegal wages. Theoretical and practical implications of these results, along with directions for future research, are discussed

A demographic and epidemiological study of a Mexican chiropractic college public clinic

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Descriptive studies of chiropractic patients are not new, several have been performed in the U.S., Australia, Canada, and Europe. None have been performed in a Latin American country. The purpose of this study is to describe the patients who visited a Mexican chiropractic college public clinic with respect to demographics and clinical characteristics.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study was reviewed and approved by the IRB of Parker College of Chiropractic and the Universidad Estatal del Valle de Ecatepec (UNEVE). Five hundred patient files from the UNEVE public clinic from May 2005 to May 2007 were selected from an approximate total number of 3,700. Information was collected for demographics, chief complaints, associated complaints, and previous care sought.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The sample comprised 306 (61.2%) female. Most files (44.2%) were in the age range of 40–59 years (mean of 43.4 years). The most frequent complaints were lumbar pain (29.2%) and extremity pain (28.0%), most commonly the knee. Most (62.0%) described their complaints as greater than one year. Trauma (46.6%) was indicated as the initial cause. Mean VAS score was 6.26/10 with 20% rated at 8/10.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Demographic results compared closer to studies conducted with private clinicians (females within the ages of 40–59). The primary complaint and duration was similar to previous studies (low back pain and chronic), except in this population the cause was usually initiated by trauma. The most striking features were the higher number of extremity complaints and the marked increased level of VAS score (20% rated as 8/10).</p

Energy Estimation of Cosmic Rays with the Engineering Radio Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) is part of the Pierre Auger Observatory and is used to detect the radio emission of cosmic-ray air showers. These observations are compared to the data of the surface detector stations of the Observatory, which provide well-calibrated information on the cosmic-ray energies and arrival directions. The response of the radio stations in the 30 to 80 MHz regime has been thoroughly calibrated to enable the reconstruction of the incoming electric field. For the latter, the energy deposit per area is determined from the radio pulses at each observer position and is interpolated using a two-dimensional function that takes into account signal asymmetries due to interference between the geomagnetic and charge-excess emission components. The spatial integral over the signal distribution gives a direct measurement of the energy transferred from the primary cosmic ray into radio emission in the AERA frequency range. We measure 15.8 MeV of radiation energy for a 1 EeV air shower arriving perpendicularly to the geomagnetic field. This radiation energy -- corrected for geometrical effects -- is used as a cosmic-ray energy estimator. Performing an absolute energy calibration against the surface-detector information, we observe that this radio-energy estimator scales quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy as expected for coherent emission. We find an energy resolution of the radio reconstruction of 22% for the data set and 17% for a high-quality subset containing only events with at least five radio stations with signal.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Measurement of the Radiation Energy in the Radio Signal of Extensive Air Showers as a Universal Estimator of Cosmic-Ray Energy

We measure the energy emitted by extensive air showers in the form of radio emission in the frequency range from 30 to 80 MHz. Exploiting the accurate energy scale of the Pierre Auger Observatory, we obtain a radiation energy of 15.8 \pm 0.7 (stat) \pm 6.7 (sys) MeV for cosmic rays with an energy of 1 EeV arriving perpendicularly to a geomagnetic field of 0.24 G, scaling quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy. A comparison with predictions from state-of-the-art first-principle calculations shows agreement with our measurement. The radiation energy provides direct access to the calorimetric energy in the electromagnetic cascade of extensive air showers. Comparison with our result thus allows the direct calibration of any cosmic-ray radio detector against the well-established energy scale of the Pierre Auger Observatory.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Supplemental material in the ancillary file

Involvement of microRNA Lethal-7a in the Regulation of Embryo Implantation in Mice

MicroRNAs interact with multiple mRNAs resulting in their degradation and/or translational repression. This report used the delayed implantation model to determine the role of miRNAs in blastocysts. Dormant blastocysts in delayed implanting mice were activated by estradiol. Differential expression of 45 out of 238 miRNAs examined was found between the dormant and the activated blastocysts. Five of the nine members of the microRNA lethal-7 (let-7) family were down-regulated after activation. Human blastocysts also had a low expression of let-7 family. Forced-expression of a family member, let-7a in mouse blastocysts decreased the number of implantation sites (let-7a: 1.1±0.4; control: 3.8±0.4) in vivo, and reduced the percentages of blastocyst that attached (let-7a: 42.0±8.3%; control: 79.0±5.1%) and spreaded (let-7a: 33.5±2.9%; control: 67.3±3.8%) on fibronectin in vitro. Integrin-β3, a known implantation-related molecule, was demonstrated to be a target of let-7a by 3′-untranslated region reporter assay in cervical cancer cells HeLa, and Western blotting in mouse blastocysts. The inhibitory effect of forced-expression of let-7a on blastocyst attachment and outgrowth was partially nullified in vitro and in vivo by forced-expression of integrin-β3. This study provides the first direct evidence that let-7a is involved in regulating the implantation process partly via modulation of the expression of integrin-β3. (200 words)

Significant Effects of Antiretroviral Therapy on Global Gene Expression in Brain Tissues of Patients with HIV-1-Associated Neurocognitive Disorders

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has reduced morbidity and mortality in HIV-1 infection; however HIV-1-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND) persist despite treatment. The reasons for the limited efficacy of ART in the brain are unknown. Here we used functional genomics to determine ART effectiveness in the brain and to identify molecular signatures of HAND under ART. We performed genome-wide microarray analysis using Affymetrix U133 Plus 2.0 Arrays, real-time PCR, and immunohistochemistry in brain tissues from seven treated and eight untreated HAND patients and six uninfected controls. We also determined brain virus burdens by real-time PCR. Treated and untreated HAND brains had distinct gene expression profiles with ART transcriptomes clustering with HIV-1-negative controls. The molecular disease profile of untreated HAND showed dysregulated expression of 1470 genes at p<0.05, with activation of antiviral and immune responses and suppression of synaptic transmission and neurogenesis. The overall brain transcriptome changes in these patients were independent of histological manifestation of HIV-1 encephalitis and brain virus burdens. Depending on treatment compliance, brain transcriptomes from patients on ART had 83% to 93% fewer dysregulated genes and significantly lower dysregulation of biological pathways compared to untreated patients, with particular improvement indicated for nervous system functions. However a core of about 100 genes remained similarly dysregulated in both treated and untreated patient brain tissues. These genes participate in adaptive immune responses, and in interferon, cell cycle, and myelin pathways. Fluctuations of cellular gene expression in the brain correlated in Pearson's formula analysis with plasma but not brain virus burden. Our results define for the first time an aberrant genome-wide brain transcriptome of untreated HAND and they suggest that antiretroviral treatment can be broadly effective in reducing pathophysiological changes in the brain associated with HAND. Aberrantly expressed transcripts common to untreated and treated HAND may contribute to neurocognitive changes defying ART

SNAPSHOT USA 2019 : a coordinated national camera trap survey of the United States

This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.With the accelerating pace of global change, it is imperative that we obtain rapid inventories of the status and distribution of wildlife for ecological inferences and conservation planning. To address this challenge, we launched the SNAPSHOT USA project, a collaborative survey of terrestrial wildlife populations using camera traps across the United States. For our first annual survey, we compiled data across all 50 states during a 14-week period (17 August - 24 November of 2019). We sampled wildlife at 1509 camera trap sites from 110 camera trap arrays covering 12 different ecoregions across four development zones. This effort resulted in 166,036 unique detections of 83 species of mammals and 17 species of birds. All images were processed through the Smithsonian's eMammal camera trap data repository and included an expert review phase to ensure taxonomic accuracy of data, resulting in each picture being reviewed at least twice. The results represent a timely and standardized camera trap survey of the USA. All of the 2019 survey data are made available herein. We are currently repeating surveys in fall 2020, opening up the opportunity to other institutions and cooperators to expand coverage of all the urban-wild gradients and ecophysiographic regions of the country. Future data will be available as the database is updated at eMammal.si.edu/snapshot-usa, as well as future data paper submissions. These data will be useful for local and macroecological research including the examination of community assembly, effects of environmental and anthropogenic landscape variables, effects of fragmentation and extinction debt dynamics, as well as species-specific population dynamics and conservation action plans. There are no copyright restrictions; please cite this paper when using the data for publication.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe