Analysing and predicting wildlife–vehicle collision hotspots for the Swiss road network

Erworben im Rahmen der Schweizer Nationallizenzen (http://www.nationallizenzen.ch)Context: Wildlife–vehicle collisions (WVCs) are a significant threat for many species, cause financial loss and pose a serious risk to motorist safety. Objectives: We used spatial data science on regional collision data from Switzerland with the objectives of identifying the key environmental collision risk factors and modelling WVC risk on a nationwide scale. Methods: We used 43,000 collision records with roe deer, red deer, wild boar, and chamois from 2010 to 2015 for both midlands and mountainous landscape types. We compared a fixed-length road segmentation approach with segments based on Kernel Density Estimation, a data-driven segmentation method. The segments’ environmental properties were derived from land-cover geodata using novel neighbourhood operations. Multivariate logistic regression and random forest classifiers were used to identify and rank the relevant environmental factors and to predict collision risk in areas without collision data. Results: The key factors for WVC hotspots are road sinuosity, and two composite factors for browsing/forage availability and traffic noise—a proxy for traffic flow. Our best models achieved sensitivities of 82.5% to 88.6%, with misclassifications of 20.14% and 27.03%, respectively. Our predictions were better in forested areas and revealed limitations in open landscape due to lack of up-to-date data on annual crop changes. Conclusions: We illustrate the added value of using fine-grained land-cover data for WVC modelling, and show how such detailed information can be annotated to road segments using spatial neighbourhood functions. Finally, we recommend the inclusion of annual crop data for improving WVC modelling

Non-random, individual-specific methylation profiles are present at the sixth CTCF binding site in the human H19/IGF2 imprinting control region

Expression of imprinted genes is classically associated with differential methylation of specific CpG-rich DNA regions (DMRs). The H19/IGF2 locus is considered a paradigm for epigenetic regulation. In mice, as in humans, the essential H19 DMR—target of the CTCF insulator—is located between the two genes. Here, we performed a pyrosequencing-based quantitative analysis of its CpG methylation in normal human tissues. The quantitative analysis of the methylation level in the H19 DMR revealed three unexpected discrete, individual-specific methylation states. This epigenetic polymorphism was confined to the sixth CTCF binding site while a unique median-methylated profile was found at the third CTCF binding site as well as in the H19 promoter. Monoallelic expression of H19 and IGF2 was maintained independently of the methylation status at the sixth CTCF binding site and the IGF2 DMR2 displayed a median-methylated profile in all individuals and tissues analyzed. Interestingly, the methylation profile was genetically transmitted. Transgenerational inheritance of the H19 methylation profile was compatible with a simple model involving one gene with three alleles. The existence of three individual-specific epigenotypes in the H19 DMR in a non-pathological situation means it is important to reconsider the diagnostic value and functional importance of the sixth CTCF binding site

Omecamtiv mecarbil in chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, GALACTIC‐HF: baseline characteristics and comparison with contemporary clinical trials

Aims: The safety and efficacy of the novel selective cardiac myosin activator, omecamtiv mecarbil, in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is tested in the Global Approach to Lowering Adverse Cardiac outcomes Through Improving Contractility in Heart Failure (GALACTIC‐HF) trial. Here we describe the baseline characteristics of participants in GALACTIC‐HF and how these compare with other contemporary trials. Methods and Results: Adults with established HFrEF, New York Heart Association functional class (NYHA) ≥ II, EF ≤35%, elevated natriuretic peptides and either current hospitalization for HF or history of hospitalization/ emergency department visit for HF within a year were randomized to either placebo or omecamtiv mecarbil (pharmacokinetic‐guided dosing: 25, 37.5 or 50 mg bid). 8256 patients [male (79%), non‐white (22%), mean age 65 years] were enrolled with a mean EF 27%, ischemic etiology in 54%, NYHA II 53% and III/IV 47%, and median NT‐proBNP 1971 pg/mL. HF therapies at baseline were among the most effectively employed in contemporary HF trials. GALACTIC‐HF randomized patients representative of recent HF registries and trials with substantial numbers of patients also having characteristics understudied in previous trials including more from North America (n = 1386), enrolled as inpatients (n = 2084), systolic blood pressure < 100 mmHg (n = 1127), estimated glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (n = 528), and treated with sacubitril‐valsartan at baseline (n = 1594). Conclusions: GALACTIC‐HF enrolled a well‐treated, high‐risk population from both inpatient and outpatient settings, which will provide a definitive evaluation of the efficacy and safety of this novel therapy, as well as informing its potential future implementation

Simulating the impact of blue-green infrastructure on the microclimate of urban areas

This dissertation covers the development of two numerical models to investigate the impact of blue-green solutions on the urban microclimate; in particular, how vegetation and green infrastructure in cities influences the surface energy balance, how much water and heat is exchanged by the surface, and how the resulting sensible and latent heat fluxes feed back on the atmospheric flow. The first model is a relatively simple energy balance model and is envisioned to be of use in the master planning stage. The second model is a sophisticated three-dimensional unsteady large-eddy simulation (LES) code which provides information with spatial resolutions of one metre and sub-second time-intervals. This model will be of use primarily in the detailed design phase and for scientific investigations. This dissertation covers the development of two numerical models to investigate the impact of blue-green solutions on the urban microclimate; in particular, how vegetation and green infrastructure in cities influences the surface energy balance, how much water and heat is exchanged by the surface, and how the resulting sensible and latent heat fluxes feed back on the atmospheric flow. The first model is a relatively simple energy balance model and is envisioned to be of use in the master planning stage. The second model is a sophisticated three-dimensional unsteady large-eddy simulation (LES) code which provides information with spatial resolutions of one metre and sub-second time-intervals. This model will be of use primarily in the detailed design phase and for scientific investigations.\\ The energy balance model MTEB is based on the Town Energy Balance \citep{Masson2000}. It was extended to incorporate the physics of green roofs; is capable of predicting the urban climate on a neighbourhood scale and to assess the scalability of climate mitigation strategies. The MTEB model solves a set of ordinary differential equations describing the evolution of heat and water on idealised urban surfaces such as roads, walls and roofs. Air movement is not modelled explicitly; instead aerodynamic resistances are used to describe the turbulent heat and moisture transport in the atmosphere. This model was used to investigate the effect of evaporative cooling from green roofs on outdoor air temperatures in an urban environment. Simulations were performed for different climates and urban geometries, with varying soil moisture content, green roof fraction and urban surface layer thickness. All simulations show a linear relationship between surface layer temperature reduction ($\Delta T_\mathrm{sl}$) and domain averaged evaporation rates from vegetation. The slope of this relationship is called the evaporative cooling potential with a value of $\approx -0.35$\UC{K}{}{day}{}{mm}{-1}. This value is independent of the method by which water is supplied. Further, a simple algebraic expression to predict the evaporative cooling potential was derived using a Taylor series expansion. For a London summer climate the results imply a maximum achievable mean temperature reduction $\le 0.4$K. Thus, without additional watering the outdoor cooling effect of green roofs on a neighbourhood scale is rather limited.\\ The detailed LES model, DALES-Urban \citep{Heus2010,Tomas2015}, was extended in order to study the complex exchanges between the urban morphology and the atmospheric air. Indeed, turbulence is very heterogeneous and depends strongly on the local morphology and temperature distribution. Turbulence in turn is a major contributor to momentum, energy and moisture fluxes. Wall functions were introduced to model scalar and momentum fluxes at horizontal and vertical structures such as roads, roofs and walls. Energy balances for all urban surfaces, including wall heat flux, heat storage and radiation were fully integrated, where the radiosity approach was being pursued to simulate short- and longwave radiative exchanges. A detailed verification was carried out to ensure that the physics were implemented correctly. These model capabilities allow to simulate urban processes in unprecedented detail allowing to gain new insight into the complex urban microclimate and help urban planning and development.\\ DALES-Urban was used to perform a study of the effect of a green roof on the ``Eastside'' building in South Kensington. The 3D building morphology was created from LIDAR data. The results indicate that the presence of a single green roof does neither affect the average wind velocities nor the average air temperature in any substantial way. The green roof surface energy balance shows a clear shift from a sensible to a latent heat flux, leading to cooler vegetated surfaces. The corresponding humidity increase in the air is found to be marginal. The detailed LES model, DALES-Urban \citep{Heus2010,Tomas2015}, was extended in order to study the complex exchanges between the urban morphology and the atmospheric air. Indeed, turbulence is very heterogeneous and depends strongly on the local morphology and temperature distribution. Turbulence in turn is a major contributor to momentum, energy and moisture fluxes. Wall functions were introduced to model scalar and momentum fluxes at horizontal and vertical structures such as roads, roofs and walls. Energy balances for all urban surfaces, including wall heat flux, heat storage and radiation were fully integrated, where the radiosity approach was being pursued to simulate short- and longwave radiative exchanges. A detailed verification was carried out to ensure that the physics were implemented correctly. These model capabilities allow to simulate urban processes in unprecedented detail allowing to gain new insight into the complex urban microclimate and help urban planning and development.\\ DALES-Urban was used to perform a study of the effect of a green roof on the ``Eastside'' building in South Kensington. The 3D building morphology was created from LIDAR data. The results indicate that the presence of a single green roof does neither affect the average wind velocities nor the average air temperature in any substantial way. The green roof surface energy balance shows a clear shift from a sensible to a latent heat flux, leading to cooler vegetated surfaces. The corresponding humidity increase in the air is found to be marginal.Open Acces

uDALES 1.0: a large-eddy simulation model for urban environments

Urban environments are of increasing importance in climate and air quality research due to their central role in the population's health and well-being. Tools to model the local environmental conditions, urban morphology and interaction with the atmospheric boundary layer play an important role for sustainable urban planning and policy making. uDALES is a high-resolution, building-resolving, large-eddy simulation code for urban microclimate and air quality. uDALES solves a surface energy balance for each urban facet and models multi-reflection shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, heat storage and conductance, as well as turbulent latent and sensible heat fluxes. Vegetated surfaces and their effect on outdoor temperatures and energy demand can be studied. Furthermore, a scheme to simulate emissions and transport of passive and reactive gas species is present. The energy balance has been tested against idealised cases and the dispersion against wind tunnel experiments of the Dispersion of Air Pollution and its Penetration into the Local Environment (DAPPLE) field study, yielding satisfying results. uDALES can be used to study the effect of new buildings and other changes to the urban landscape on the local flow and microclimate and to gain fundamental insight into the effect of urban morphology on local climate, ventilation and dispersion. uDALES is available online under the GNU General Public License and remains under active maintenance and development.ISSN:1991-9603ISSN:1991-959

Response to comment on “A global environmental crisis 42,000 years ago”

Our paper about the impacts of the Laschamps Geomagnetic Excursion 42,000 years ago has provoked considerable scientific and public interest, particularly in the so-called Adams Event associated with the initial transition of the magnetic poles. Although we welcome the opportunity to discuss our new ideas, Hawks’ assertions of misrepresentation are especially disappointing given his limited examination of the material

Response to Comment on A global environmental crisis 42,000 years ago

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A global environmental crisis 42,000 years ago

Geological archives record multiple reversals of Earth’s magnetic poles, but the global impacts of these events, if any, remain unclear. Uncertain radiocarbon calibration has limited investigation of the potential effects of the last major magnetic inversion, known as the Laschamps Excursion [41 to 42 thousand years ago (ka)]. We use ancient New Zealand kauri trees (Agathis australis) to develop a detailed record of atmospheric radiocarbon levels across the Laschamps Excursion. We precisely characterize the geomagnetic reversal and perform global chemistry-climate modeling and detailed radiocarbon dating of paleoenvironmental records to investigate impacts. We find that geomagnetic field minima ~42 ka, in combination with Grand Solar Minima, caused substantial changes in atmospheric ozone concentration and circulation, driving synchronous global climate shifts that caused major environmental changes, extinction events, and transformations in the archaeological record