Development and validation of a prognostic model for the early identification of COVID-19 patients at risk of developing common long COVID symptoms

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic demands reliable prognostic models for estimating the risk of long COVID. We developed and validated a prediction model to estimate the probability of known common long COVID symptoms at least 60 days after acute COVID-19. Methods: The prognostic model was built based on data from a multicentre prospective Swiss cohort study. Included were adult patients diagnosed with COVID-19 between February and December 2020 and treated as outpatients, at ward or intensive/intermediate care unit. Perceived long-term health impairments, including reduced exercise tolerance/reduced resilience, shortness of breath and/or tiredness (REST), were assessed after a follow-up time between 60 and 425 days. The data set was split into a derivation and a geographical validation cohort. Predictors were selected out of twelve candidate predictors based on three methods, namely the augmented backward elimination (ABE) method, the adaptive best-subset selection (ABESS) method and model-based recursive partitioning (MBRP) approach. Model performance was assessed with the scaled Brier score, concordance c statistic and calibration plot. The final prognostic model was determined based on best model performance. Results: In total, 2799 patients were included in the analysis, of which 1588 patients were in the derivation cohort and 1211 patients in the validation cohort. The REST prevalence was similar between the cohorts with 21.6% (n = 343) in the derivation cohort and 22.1% (n = 268) in the validation cohort. The same predictors were selected with the ABE and ABESS approach. The final prognostic model was based on the ABE and ABESS selected predictors. The corresponding scaled Brier score in the validation cohort was 18.74%, model discrimination was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.75 to 0.81), calibration slope was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.78 to 1.06) and calibration intercept was -0.06 (95% CI: -0.22 to 0.09). Conclusion: The proposed model was validated to identify COVID-19-infected patients at high risk for REST symptoms. Before implementing the prognostic model in daily clinical practice, the conduct of an impact study is recommended. Keywords: Clinical prediction model; Long COVID; Prognostic factors; Stratified medicin

Impact of sex and gender on post-COVID-19 syndrome, Switzerland, 2020

Background: Women are overrepresented among individuals with post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC). Biological (sex) as well as sociocultural (gender) differences between women and men might account for this imbalance, yet their impact on PASC is unknown. Aim: We assessed the impact of sex and gender on PASC in a Swiss population. Method: Our multicentre prospective cohort study included 2,856 (46% women, mean age 44.2 ± 16.8 years) outpatients and hospitalised patients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection.ResultsAmong those who remained outpatients during their first infection, women reported persisting symptoms more often than men (40.5% vs 25.5% of men; p < 0.001). This sex difference was absent in hospitalised patients. In a crude analysis, both female biological sex (RR = 1.59; 95% CI: 1.41-1.79; p < 0.001) and a score summarising gendered sociocultural variables (RR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.03-1.07; p < 0.001) were significantly associated with PASC. Following multivariable adjustment, biological female sex (RR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.74-1.25; p = 0.763) was outperformed by feminine gender-related factors such as a higher stress level (RR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01-1.06; p = 0.003), lower education (RR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.03-1.30; p = 0.011), being female and living alone (RR = 1.91; 95% CI: 1.29-2.83; p = 0.001) or being male and earning the highest income in the household (RR = 0.76; 95% CI: 0.60-0.97; p = 0.030). Conclusion: Specific sociocultural parameters that differ in prevalence between women and men, or imply a unique risk for women, are predictors of PASC and may explain, at least in part, the higher incidence of PASC in women. Once patients are hospitalised during acute infection, sex differences in PASC are no longer evident

Association between hospice care and psychological outcomes in Alzheimer's spousal caregivers.

CONTEXT Dementia care giving can lead to increased stress, physical and psychosocial morbidity, and mortality. Anecdotal evidence suggests that hospice care provided to people with dementia and their caregivers may buffer caregivers from some of the adverse outcomes associated with family caregiving in Alzheimer's Disease (AD). OBJECTIVES This pilot study examined psychological and physical outcomes among 32 spousal caregivers of patients with AD. It was hypothesized that caregivers who utilized hospice services would demonstrate better outcomes after the death of their spouse than caregivers who did not utilize hospice. METHODS The charts of all spousal caregivers enrolled in a larger longitudinal study from 2001 to 2006 (N=120) were reviewed, and participants whose spouse had died were identified. Of these, those who received hospice care (n=10) were compared to those who did not (n=22) for various physiological and psychological measures of stress, both before and after the death of the care recipient. An Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA), with postdeath scores as the dependent variable and pre-death scores as covariates, was used for all variables. RESULTS Significant group differences were found in postdeath depressive symptoms (HAM-D; F(1,29)=6.10, p0.5 between groups. CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that hospice enrollment may ameliorate the detrimental psychological effects in caregivers who have lost a spouse with Alzheimer's Disease. Based on these pilot data, further prospective investigation is warranted

Combined Forward-Backward Asymmetry Measurements in Top-Antitop Quark Production at the Tevatron

The CDF and D0 experiments at the Fermilab Tevatron have measured the asymmetry between yields of forward- and backward-produced top and antitop quarks based on their rapidity difference and the asymmetry between their decay leptons. These measurements use the full data sets collected in proton-antiproton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of $\sqrt s =1.96$ TeV. We report the results of combinations of the inclusive asymmetries and their differential dependencies on relevant kinematic quantities. The combined inclusive asymmetry is $A_{\mathrm{FB}}^{t\bar{t}} = 0.128 \pm 0.025$. The combined inclusive and differential asymmetries are consistent with recent standard model predictions

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

Alzheimer caregiving stress and atherosclerotic disease : psychosocial and physiological pathways linking chronic stress to disease

One in eight Americans over the age of 65 is diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease and the annual incidence is expected to double by the year 2050. Unpaid family caregivers provide 80% of the healthcare for these individuals. Extensive research suggests that caregiving takes a substantial toll on health and is associated with increased coronary heart disease risk. Recent evidence suggests that chronic stress associated with caregiving may accelerate the atherosclerotic disease process. Although the processes driving such consequences are complex, heightened sympatho-adrenal-medullary (SAM) axis arousal and inflammation represent potential mechanisms linking stress to atherosclerosis. A conceptual framework modeling the translation of caregiving stress to downstream evidence of atherosclerosis was formulated. The present study aimed to determine if this model represented a parsimonious and valid characterization of observed data from a sample of 126 Alzheimer caregivers. In brief, this model specified a positive relationship between stress and markers of atherosclerosis with SAM arousal and inflammation as mediators. Coping resources were expected to buffer the relationship between caregiving stress and physiologic mediators. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to test latent variable measurement models and regression was used to assess structural relationships. Exploratory analyses assessed the impact of stress and coping on atherosclerotic progression over time. Results indicated that caregiving stress was unassociated with evidence of atherosclerosis and neither SAM arousal nor inflammation mediated this relationship. Coping did not moderate the relationship between stress and atherosclerosis or physiologic mediators. However, coping was associated with reduced SAM arousal and inflammation. Longitudinal analyses suggested that higher use of problem -focused coping was significantly associated with slower atherosclerotic progression. In sum, this comprehensive model did not fit the observed data in this sample, possibly due to power limitations and strength of measurement models. However, prior work in this cohort of caregivers does support specific components of this model. Longitudinal analyses suggested that problem-focused coping was associated with slower atherosclerotic progression, a finding that converges with past research suggesting that active coping strategies have a beneficial impact on cardiovascular health. Future work might examine the impact of coping skills training on atherosclerotic progressio

Alzheimer caregiving stress and atherosclerotic disease : psychosocial and physiological pathways linking chronic stress to disease

One in eight Americans over the age of 65 is diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease and the annual incidence is expected to double by the year 2050. Unpaid family caregivers provide 80% of the healthcare for these individuals. Extensive research suggests that caregiving takes a substantial toll on health and is associated with increased coronary heart disease risk. Recent evidence suggests that chronic stress associated with caregiving may accelerate the atherosclerotic disease process. Although the processes driving such consequences are complex, heightened sympatho-adrenal-medullary (SAM) axis arousal and inflammation represent potential mechanisms linking stress to atherosclerosis. A conceptual framework modeling the translation of caregiving stress to downstream evidence of atherosclerosis was formulated. The present study aimed to determine if this model represented a parsimonious and valid characterization of observed data from a sample of 126 Alzheimer caregivers. In brief, this model specified a positive relationship between stress and markers of atherosclerosis with SAM arousal and inflammation as mediators. Coping resources were expected to buffer the relationship between caregiving stress and physiologic mediators. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to test latent variable measurement models and regression was used to assess structural relationships. Exploratory analyses assessed the impact of stress and coping on atherosclerotic progression over time. Results indicated that caregiving stress was unassociated with evidence of atherosclerosis and neither SAM arousal nor inflammation mediated this relationship. Coping did not moderate the relationship between stress and atherosclerosis or physiologic mediators. However, coping was associated with reduced SAM arousal and inflammation. Longitudinal analyses suggested that higher use of problem -focused coping was significantly associated with slower atherosclerotic progression. In sum, this comprehensive model did not fit the observed data in this sample, possibly due to power limitations and strength of measurement models. However, prior work in this cohort of caregivers does support specific components of this model. Longitudinal analyses suggested that problem-focused coping was associated with slower atherosclerotic progression, a finding that converges with past research suggesting that active coping strategies have a beneficial impact on cardiovascular health. Future work might examine the impact of coping skills training on atherosclerotic progressio

Transfer in the interlanguage of native English speakers in first-year college Spanish

Transfer, or native language interference in the acquisition of a second language, is studied in the developing Spanish interlanguage of English-speaking students enrolled in first-year college Spanish. The study focuses on English language interference in the development of Spanish syntax, lexicon, morphology and orthography. Student compositions are analyzed and transfer errors are identified and categorized by type. The inventory of transfer errors includes all errors found in the student compositions which can be attributed to transfer and explains the interference mechanism involved in the error. Additionally, the frequency of transfer errors is compared horizontally over a four-month period to measure increase or decrease in transfer as the students' language capabilities develop. The study also reviews previous research in transfer, a field which has enjoyed renewed interest among linguists within recent years