Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security

Article purchasedAchieving and maintaining global food security is challenged by changes in population, income, and climate, among other drivers. Assessing these threats and weighing possible solutions requires a robust multidisciplinary approach. One such approach integrates biophysical modeling with economic modeling to explore the combined effects of climate stresses and future socioeconomic trends, thus providing a more accurate picture of how agriculture and the food system may be affected in the coming decades. We review and analyze the literature on this structural approach and present a case study that follows this methodology, explicitly modeling drought and heat tolerant crop varieties. We show that yield gains from adoption of these varieties differ by technology and region, but are generally comparable in scale to (and thus able to offset) adverse effects of climate change. However, yield increases over the projection period are dominated by the effects of growth in population, income, and general productivity, highlighting the importance of joint assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers to better understand climate impacts and responses

Acceptance, Prevalence and Indications for Robot-Assisted Laparoscopy - Results of a Survey Among Urologists in Germany, Austria and Switzerland

Background: Robotic-assisted laparoscopy (RAL) is being widely accepted in the field of urology as a replacement for conventional laparoscopy (CL). Nevertheless, the process of its integration in clinical routines has been rather spontaneous. Objective: To determine the prevalence of robotic systems (RS) in urological clinics in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, the acceptance of RAL among urologists as a replacement for CL and its current use for 25 different urological indications. Materials and Methods: To elucidate the practice patterns of RAL, a survey at hospitals in Germany, Austria and Switzerland was conducted. All surgically active urology departments in Germany (303), Austria (37) and Switzerland (84) received a questionnaire with questions related to the one-year period prior to the survey. Results: The response rate was 63%. Among the participants, 43% were universities, 45% were tertiary care centres, and 8% were secondary care hospitals. A total of 60 RS (Germany 35, Austria 8, Switzerland 17) were available, and the majority (68%) were operated under public ownership. The perception of RAL and the anticipated superiority of RAL significantly differed between robotic and non-robotic surgeons. For only two urologic indications were more than 50% of the procedures performed using RAL: pyeloplasty (58%) and transperitoneal radical prostatectomy (75%). On average, 35% of robotic surgeons and only 14% of non-robotic surgeons anticipated RAL superiority in some of the 25 indications. Conclusions: This survey provides a detailed insight into RAL implementation in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. RAL is currently limited to a few urological indications with a small number of high-volume robotic centres. These results might suggest that a saturation of clinics using RS has been achieved but that the existing robotic capacities are being utilized ineffectively. The possible reasons for this finding are discussed, and certain strategies to solve these problems are offered

Climate change adaptation in agriculture: Ex ante analysis of promising and alternative crop technologies using DSSAT and IMPACT

Achieving and maintaining global food security is challenged by changes in population, income, and climate, among other drivers. Assessing these challenges and possible solutions over the coming decades requires a rigorous multidisciplinary approach. To answer this challenge, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has developed a system of linked simulation models of global agriculture to do long-run scenario analysis of the effects of climate change and various adaptation strategies. This system includes the core International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), which is linked to water models (global hydrology, water basin management, and water stress on crops) and crop simulation models. The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight program, a CGIAR initiative led by IFPRI in collaboration with other CGIAR research centers, is working to improve these tools and conducting ex ante assessments of promising technologies, investments, and policies under alternative global futures. Baseline projections from IMPACT set the foundation with the latest outlook on long-term trends in food demand and agricultural production based on projected changes in population, income, technology, and climate. On top of the baseline, scenarios are developed for assessing the impacts of promising climate-adapted technologies for maize, wheat, rice, potatoes, sorghum, groundnut, and cassava on yields, area, production, trade, and prices in 2050 at a variety of scales. Yield gains from adoption of the selected technologies vary by technology and region, but are found to be generally comparable in scale to (and thus able to offset) the adverse effects of climate change under a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5). Even more important in this long-term climate change scenario are effects of growth in population, income, and investments in overall technological change, highlighting the importance of linked assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers to better understand climate impacts and responses. For all crops in the selected countries, climate change impacts are negative with the baseline technology. All new technologies have beneficial effects on yields under climate change, with combined traits (drought and heat tolerance) showing the greatest benefi

Die Arbeitsgruppe "Regio Basiliensis" in Tätigkeit

No abstract available

Lowering the PSA threshold for prostate biopsy from 4 to 2.5 ng/ml: influence on cancer characteristics and number of men needed to biopt

OBJECTIVE: In 1999 we lowered the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) threshold for prostate biopsy at our institution from 4 to 2.5 ng/ml. The aim of this study was to compare the differences in tumor characteristics of the detected prostate cancers (PCAs) and the detection rate for the two different PSA thresholds and to evaluate if lowering the threshold was justified by any of the detected differences. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the records of all patients who underwent an 8-core prostate biopsy between January 1999 and December 2004 and had a PSA between 2.5 and 10 ng/ml. Patients with a PSA between 2.5 and 4 ng/ml (group 1, n = 214, mean age 62.0 years) were compared to patients whose PSA was between 4 and 10 ng/ml (group 2, n = 292, mean age 63.2 years). Patients who were older than 75 years or had a suspicious rectal examination were excluded from this study. RESULTS: Overall, we detected 120 can-cers in 506 patients (cancer yield 23.7%). The cancer yield in group 1 was significantly lower than in group 2 (17 vs. 28%, p or=7 (p = 0.04) and significantly more potentially insignificant cancers (p = 0.03) were identified. In 80 patients who subsequently underwent radical prostatectomy, final pathology revealed no significant differences between the two PSA groups with regard to high pT stages, Gleason score >or=7 PCA or positive surgical margins, respectively. The difference in the absolute risk of being diagnosed with high-grade PCA between a PSA threshold of 2.5 ng/ml and a PSA threshold of 4 ng/ml was 1%. CONCLUSION: Lowering the PSA threshold for prostate biopsy from 4 to 2.5 ng/ml results in a substantial increase in the number of men who undergo biopsy and may result in an increased detection of potentially insignificant cancers. If total PSA alone is used to determine the need for prostate biopsy, the disadvantages of this lower threshold probably outweigh its potential benefits

Histomorphological changes after neodymium: YAG laser-coagulation of the human prostate with the Side Focus fiber

The objective of our study was to determine optimal treatment parameters and appropriate methods of examination for neodymium:yttrium-aluminum-garnet (Nd:YAG) high-power laser coagulation of the human prostate in relation to power setting and time. Transurethral free-beam laser coagulation was performed with the Side-Focus side-firing laser fiber in ten patients prior to planned radical surgery, of whom six underwent transperitoneal laparoscopic lymphadenectomy and laser coagulation 4-9 days prior to open surgery. Depth and volume of coagulated prostatic tissue were measured at power setting/time combinations of 40 W/90 s and 60 W/60 s, respectively, while holding total energy delivery constant. Microscopic examination in the early phase showed that epithelial cells had become loose from the basal-cell membrane. By 4-9 days there was evidence of conspicuous squamous epithelial metaplasia with a high proliferation rate as a sign of reepithelialization. Using the Side Focus side-firing laser fiber, both treatment modalities showed comparable volume coagulation. In contrast there was a significant difference between those prostates removed at 4-9 days and those removed at 60-210 min after laser coagulation. We conclude that laser-induced changes in the human prostate are conclusively discernible only after 4 day