Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent

Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes. The authors use systematic monitoring across the former USSR to investigate phenological changes across taxa. The long-term mean temperature of a site emerged as a strong predictor of phenological change, with further imprints of trophic level, event timing, site, year and biotic interactions.Peer reviewe

Global Cambrian trilobite palaeobiogeography assessed using parsimony analysis of endemicity

Palaeobiogeographical data on Cambrian trilobites obtained during the twentieth century are combined in this paper to evaluate palaeoceanographic links through c. 30 myr, once these arthropods biomineralized. Worldwide major tectonostratigraphic units are characterized at series intervals of Cambrian time and datasets of trilobite genera (629 for Cambrian Series 2, 965 for Cambrian Series 3, and 866 for the Furongian Series) are analysed using parsimony analysis of endemicity. Special attention is given to the biogeographical observations made in microcontinents and exotic terranes. The same is done for platform-basinal transects of well-known continental margins. The parsimony analysis of endemicity analysis resulted in distinct palaeogeographical area groupings among the tectonostratigraphic units. With these groupings, several palaeobiogeographical units are distinguished, which do not necessarily fit the previously proposed biogeographical realms and provinces. Their development and spatial distributions are broadly controlled by Cambrian palaeoclimates, palaeogeographical conditions (e.g. carbonate productivity and anoxic conditions) and ocean current circulation.Fil: Alvaro, Javier J.. Centro de Astrobiología (INTA/CSIC); EspañaFil: Ahlberg, Per. Lund University. Department of Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, GeoBiosphere Science Centre; Suecia. The Ohio State University. School of Earth Sciences; Estados UnidosFil: Babcock, Loren E.. The Ohio State University. School of Earth Sciences; Estados UnidosFil: Bordonaro, Osvaldo Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Científico Tecnológico Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Choi, Duck K.. School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University; Corea del SurFil: Cooper, Roger A.. GNS Science; Nueva ZelandaFil: Ergaliev, Gappar K. H.. National Academy of Sciences. Institute of Geological Sciences, ; Estados UnidosFil: Gapp, I. Wesley. University of Kansas. Department of Geology and Natural History Museum/Biodiversity Research Center, ; Estados UnidosFil: Pour, Mansoureg Ghobadi. Golestan University. Faculty of Sciences. Department of Geology; IránFil: Huges, Nigel C.. University of California. Department of Earth Sciences; Estados UnidosFil: Jago, James B.. University of South Australia. School of Natural and Built Environments; AustraliaFil: Korovnikiv, Igor. Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences. Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics; RusiaFil: Laurie, John R.. Geoscience Australia. Petroleum and Marine Division; AustraliaFil: Lieberman, Bruce S.. University of Kansas. Department of Geology and Natural History Museum/Biodiversity Research Center; Estados UnidosFil: Paterson, John R.. University of New England. School of Environmental & Rural Science. Division of Earth Sciences; AustraliaFil: Pegel, Tatiana V.. Geophysics and Mineral Resources. Siberian Research Institute of Geology; RusiaFil: Popov, Leonid E.. National Museum of Wales. Department of Geology; Reino UnidoFil: Rushton, Adrian W. A.. The Natural History Museum. Palaeontological Department; Reino UnidoFil: Sukhov, Sergei S.. Geophysics and Mineral Resources. Siberian Research Institute of Geology; Reino UnidoFil: Toretello, Franco M.. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales; ArgentinaFil: Zhou, Zhiyi. Chinese Academy of Sciences. Nanjing Institute of Geology and Palaeontology; ChinaFil: Zylinska, Anna. University of Warsaw. Faculty of Geology; Poloni

Differences in spatial versus temporal reaction norms for spring and autumn phenological events

For species to stay temporally tuned to their environment, they use cues such as the accumulation of degree-days. The relationships between the timing of a phenological event in a population and its environmental cue can be described by a population-level reaction norm. Variation in reaction norms along environmental gradients may either intensify the environmental effects on timing (cogradient variation) or attenuate the effects (countergradient variation). To resolve spatial and seasonal variation in species' response, we use a unique dataset of 91 taxa and 178 phenological events observed across a network of 472 monitoring sites, spread across the nations of the former Soviet Union. We show that compared to local rates of advancement of phenological events with the advancement of temperature-related cues (i.e., variation within site over years), spatial variation in reaction norms tend to accentuate responses in spring (cogradient variation) and attenuate them in autumn (countergradient variation). As a result, among-population variation in the timing of events is greater in spring and less in autumn than if all populations followed the same reaction norm regardless of location. Despite such signs of local adaptation, overall phenotypic plasticity was not sufficient for phenological events to keep exact pace with their cues-the earlier the year, the more did the timing of the phenological event lag behind the timing of the cue. Overall, these patterns suggest that differences in the spatial versus temporal reaction norms will affect species' response to climate change in opposite ways in spring and autumn

Chapter 19 Global Cambrian trilobite palaeobiogeography assessed using parsimony analysis of endemicity

<p>Palaeobiogeographical data on Cambrian trilobites obtained during the twentieth century are combined in this paper to evaluate palaeoceanographic links through <em>c.</em> 30 myr, once these arthropods biomineralized. Worldwide major tectonostratigraphic units are characterized at series intervals of Cambrian time and datasets of trilobite genera (629 for Cambrian Series 2, 965 for Cambrian Series 3, and 866 for the Furongian Series) are analysed using parsimony analysis of endemicity. Special attention is given to the biogeographical observations made in microcontinents and exotic terranes. The same is done for platform-basinal transects of well-known continental margins. The parsimony analysis of endemicity analysis resulted in distinct palaeogeographical area groupings among the tectonostratigraphic units. With these groupings, several palaeobiogeographical units are distinguished, which do not necessarily fit the previously proposed biogeographical realms and provinces. Their development and spatial distributions are broadly controlled by Cambrian palaeoclimates, palaeogeographical conditions (e.g. carbonate productivity and anoxic conditions) and ocean current circulation. </p