Priority setting in early childhood development: an analytical framework for economic evaluation of interventions

BACKGROUND: Early childhood development (ECD) sets the foundation for healthy and successful lives with important ramifications for education, labour market outcomes and other domains of well-being. Even though a large number of interventions that promote ECD have been implemented and evaluated globally, there is currently no standardised framework that allows a comparison of the relative cost-effectiveness of these interventions. METHODS: We first reviewed the existing literature to document the main approaches that have been used to assess the relative effectiveness of interventions that promote ECD, including early parenting and at-home psychosocial stimulation interventions. We then present an economic evaluation framework that builds on these reviewed approaches and focuses on the immediate impact of interventions on motor, cognitive, language and socioemotional skills. Last, we apply our framework to compute the relative cost-effectiveness of interventions for which recent effectiveness and costing data were published. For this last part, we relied on a recently published review to obtain effect sizes documented in a consistent manner across interventions. FINDINGS: Our framework enables direct value-for-money comparison of interventions across settings. Cost-effectiveness estimates, expressed in $ per units of improvement in ECD outcomes, vary greatly across interventions. Given that estimated costs vary by orders of magnitude across interventions while impacts are relatively similar, cost-effectiveness rankings are dominated by implementation costs and the interventions with higher value for money are generally those with a lower implementation cost (eg, psychosocial interventions involving limited staff). CONCLUSIONS: With increasing attention and investment into ECD programmes, consistent assessments of the relative cost-effectiveness of available interventions are urgently needed. This paper presents a unified analytical framework to address this need and highlights the rather remarkable range in both costs and cost-effectiveness across currently available intervention strategies

Large gains in schooling and income are possible from minimizing adverse birth outcomes in 121 low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study

While the global contributions of adverse birth outcomes to child morbidity and mortality is relatively well documented, the potential long-term schooling and economic consequences of adverse birth outcomes has not been estimated. We sought to quantify the potential schooling and lifetime income gains associated with reducing the excess prevalence of adverse birth outcomes in 121 low- and middle-income countries. We used a linear deterministic model to estimate the potential gains in schooling and lifetime income that may be achieved by attaining theoretical minimum prevalence of low birthweight, preterm birth and small-for-gestational age births at the national, regional, and global levels. We estimated that potential total gains across the 121 countries from reducing low birthweight to the theoretical minimum were 20.3 million school years (95% CI: 6.0,34.8) and US$68.8 billion (95$ 41.9 billion (95% CI: 6.1,80.9) in lifetime income. The potential gains from small-for-gestational age were 39.5 million (95% CI: 19.1,60.3) school years and US$113.6 billion (95% CI: 55.5,174.2) in lifetime income gained. In summary, reducing the excess prevalence of low birthweight, preterm birth or small-for-gestational age births in low- and middle-income countries may lead to substantial long-term human capital gains in addition to benefits on child mortality, growth, and development as well as on risk of non-communicable diseases in adults and other consequences across the life course

Birth weight and adult earnings: a systematic review and meta-analysis

While substantial evidence has identified low birth weight (LBW; <2500 g) as a risk factor for early life morbidity, mortality and poor childhood development, relatively little is known on the links between birth weight and economic outcomes in adulthood. The objective of this study was to systematically review the economics (EconLit) and biomedical literature (Medline) and estimate the pooled association between birth weight and adult earnings. A total of 15 studies from mostly high-income countries were included. On average, each standard deviation increase in birth weight was associated with a 2.75% increase in annual earnings [(95% CI: 1.44 to 4.07); 9 estimates]. A negative, but not statistically significant, association was found between being born LBW and earnings, compared to individuals not born LBW [mean difference: -3.41% (95% CI: -7.55 to 0.73); 7 estimates]. No studies from low-income countries were identified and all studies were observational. Overall, birth weight was consistently associated with adult earnings, and therefore, interventions that improve birth weight may provide beneficial effects on adult economic outcomes

Anemia prevalence and etiology among women, men, and children in Ethiopia: a study protocol for a national population-based survey.

BACKGROUND: Anemia remains a public health challenge in Ethiopia, affecting an estimated 56% of children under age 5 years, 23% of women of reproductive age and 18% of adult men. However, anemia etiology and the relative contribution of underlying risk factors for anemia remains unclear and has hindered implementation of anemia control programs. METHODS/DESIGN: Anemia Etiology in Ethiopia (AnemEE) is a population-based cross-sectional survey of six regions of Ethiopia that includes children, women of reproductive age, and men from regionally representative households. The survey will include detailed assessment of anemia, iron, inflammatory and nutritional biomarkers, diet, comorbidities, and other factors. The objectives of AnemEE are 1) to generate evidence for decision-making on the etiology of anemia in Ethiopia among men, women and children and 2) to simulate the potential effect of iron fortification and other interventions on the prevalence of anemia and risk of iron overload. DISCUSSION: AnemEE will provide the most comprehensive evaluation of anemia etiology in Ethiopia to date due to its detailed assessment of diet, biomarkers, infections and other risk factors in a population-based sample. By generating evidence and simulating potential interventions, AnemEE will inform the development of high-impact anemia control programs and policies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04002466 . Registered on 28 June 2019. Retrospectively registered

Evaluating implementation of LEAPS, a youth-led early childhood care and education intervention in rural Pakistan: protocol for a stepped wedge cluster-randomized trial

BACKGROUND: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight the importance of investments in early childhood care and education (ECCE) and youth development. Given Pakistan's large young population, and gender and urban-rural inequalities in access to education, training, and employment, such investments offer opportunities. LEAPS is a youth-led ECCE program that trains female youth, 18-24 years, as Community Youth Leaders (CYLs) to deliver high-quality ECCE for children, 3.5-5.5 years, in rural Sindh, Pakistan. METHODS: We use a stepped wedge cluster-randomized trial to evaluate implementation of LEAPS. Ninety-nine clusters will be randomized to receive the intervention in one of three 7-month steps (33 clusters/step). The primary outcome is children's school readiness (indexed by the total score on the International Development and Early Learning Assessment (IDELA)). Secondary child outcomes are children's IDELA domain scores and executive functions. Data are collected in cross-sectional surveys of 1089 children (11 children/cluster from 99 clusters) aged 4.5-5.5 years at four timepoints (baseline and at the end of each step). Additionally, we will enroll three non-randomized youth participant open cohorts, one per step (33 CYLs: 66 comparison youth per cohort; 99:198 in total). Youth cohorts will be assessed at enrollment and every 7 months thereafter to measure secondary outcomes of youth personal and professional development, depressive symptoms, and executive functions. A non-randomized school cohort of 330 LEAPS students (10 students/cluster from 33 clusters) will also be enrolled and assessed during Step 1 after intervention rollout and at endline. The quality of the learning environment will be assessed in each LEAPS ECCE center and in a comparison center at two timepoints midway following rollout and at endline. A concurrent mixed-methods implementation evaluation will assess program fidelity and quality, and the extent to which a technical support strategy is successful in strengthening systems for program expansion. A cost evaluation will assess cost per beneficiary. Data collection for implementation and cost evaluations will occur in Step 3. DISCUSSION: Youth-led models for ECCE offer a promising approach to support young children and youth. This study will contribute to the evidence as a means to promote sustainable human development across multiple SDG targets. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03764436 . Registered on December 5, 2018

Depression at antiretroviral therapy initiation and clinical outcomes among a cohort of Tanzanian women living with HIV

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to assess the relationship of depression at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation with mortality and clinical outcomes among Tanzanian women living with HIV. DESIGN: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 1487 women who initiated ART in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. METHODS: Symptoms of depression and anxiety were assessed using a Tanzanian-adapted and validated version of the Hopkins Symptom Checklist. Participants attended monthly clinic visits during the first 2 years of ART and CD4 T-cell counts were assessed every 4 months. Proportional hazard models were used to assess the relationship of depression with mortality and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Symptoms consistent with depression were prevalent among 57.8% of women at ART initiation. After multivariate adjustment, including social support and stigma, depression at ART initiation was associated with increased risk of mortality [hazard ratio (HR): 1.92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-3.20; P = 0.01] and incidence of severe anemia (hemoglobin 0.05). CONCLUSION: Elimination of depression may reduce mortality during the first 2 years of ART by one-third in our study cohort. Randomized trials and rigorous implementation studies are needed to evaluate the individual and population-level effects of integrated mental health interventions and HIV treatment approaches in resource-limited settings

Development and validation of an early childhood development scale for use in low-resourced settings

Background:Low-cost, cross-culturally comparable measures of the motor, cognitive, and socioemotional skills of children under 3 years remain scarce. In the present paper, we aim to develop a new caregiver-reported early childhood development (ECD) scale designed to be implemented as part of household surveys in low-resourced settings. Methods: We evaluate the acceptability, test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and discriminant validity of the new ECD items, subscales, and full scale in a sample of 2481 18- to 36-month-old children from peri-urban and rural Tanzania. We also compare total and subscale scores with performance on the Bayley Scales of Infant Development (BSID-III) in a subsample of 1036 children. Qualitative interviews from 10 mothers and 10 field workers are used to inform quantitative data. Results: Adequate levels of acceptability and internal consistency were found for the new scale and its motor, cognitive, and socioemotional subscales. Correlations between the new scale and the BSID-III were high (r > .50) for the motor and cognitive subscales, but low (r < .20) for the socioemotional subscale. The new scale discriminated between children’s skills based on age, stunting status, caregiver-reported disability, and adult stimulation. Test-retest reliability scores were variable among a subset of items tested. Conclusions: Results of this study provide empirical support from a low-income country setting for the acceptability, reliability, and validity of a new caregiver-reported ECD scale. Additional research is needed to test these and other caregiver reported items in children in the full 0 to 3 year range across multiple cultural and linguistic settings

Effectiveness of measles vaccination and vitamin A treatment

Background The current strategy utilized by WHO/United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) to reach the Global Immunization Vision and Strategy 2010 measles reduction goal includes increasing coverage of measles vaccine, vitamin A treatment and supplementation in addition to offering two doses of vaccine to all children

What explains Cambodia’s success in reducing child stunting-2000-2014?

In many developing countries, high levels of child undernutrition persist alongside rapid economic growth. There is considerable interest in the study of countries that have made rapid progress in child nutrition to uncover the driving forces behind these improvements. Cambodia is often cited as a success case having reduced the incidence of child stunting from 51% to 34% over the period 2000 to 2014. To what extent is this success driven by improvements in the underlying determinants of nutrition, such as wealth and education, (“covariate effects”) and to what extent by changes in the strengths of association between these determinants and nutrition outcomes (“coefficient effects”)? Using determinants derived from the widely-applied UNICEF framework for the analysis of child nutrition and data from four Demographic and Health Surveys datasets, we apply quantile regression based decomposition methods to quantify the covariate and coefficient effect contributions to this improvement in child nutrition. The method used in the study allows the covariate and coefficient effects to vary across the entire distribution of child nutrition outcomes. There are important differences in the drivers of improvements in child nutrition between severely stunted and moderately stunted children and between rural and urban areas. The translation of improvements in household endowments, characteristics and practices into improvements in child nutrition (the coefficient effects) may be influenced by macroeconomic shocks or other events such as natural calamities or civil disturbance and may vary substantially over different time periods. Our analysis also highlights the need to explicitly examine the contribution of targeted child health and nutrition interventions to improvements in child nutrition in developing countries

A double-blind placebo-controlled trial of azithromycin to reduce mortality and improve growth in high-risk young children with non-bloody diarrhoea in low resource settings: the Antibiotics for Children with Diarrhoea (ABCD) trial protocol

Background Acute diarrhoea is a common cause of illness and death among children in low- to middle-income settings. World Health Organization guidelines for the clinical management of acute watery diarrhoea in children focus on oral rehydration, supplemental zinc and feeding advice. Routine use of antibiotics is not recommended except when diarrhoea is bloody or cholera is suspected. Young children who are undernourished or have a dehydrating diarrhoea are more susceptible to death at 90 days after onset of diarrhoea. Given the mortality risk associated with diarrhoea in children with malnutrition or dehydrating diarrhoea, expanding the use of antibiotics for this subset of children could be an important intervention to reduce diarrhoea-associated mortality and morbidity. We designed the Antibiotics for Childhood Diarrhoea (ABCD) trial to test this intervention. Methods ABCD is a double-blind, randomised trial recruiting 11,500 children aged 2–23 months presenting with acute non-bloody diarrhoea who are dehydrated and/or undernourished (i.e. have a high risk for mortality). Enrolled children in Bangladesh, India, Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Pakistan and Tanzania are randomised (1:1) to oral azithromycin 10 mg/kg or placebo once daily for 3 days and followed-up for 180 days. Primary efficacy endpoints are all-cause mortality during the 180 days post-enrolment and change in linear growth 90 days post-enrolment. Discussion Expanding the treatment of acute watery diarrhoea in high-risk children to include an antibiotic may offer an opportunity to reduce deaths. These benefits may result from direct antimicrobial effects on pathogens or other incompletely understood mechanisms including improved nutrition, alterations in immune responsiveness or improved enteric function. The expansion of indications for antibiotic use raises concerns about the emergence of antimicrobial resistance both within treated children and the communities in which they live. ABCD will monitor antimicrobial resistance. The ABCD trial has important policy implications. If the trial shows significant benefits of azithromycin use, this may provide evidence to support reconsideration of antibiotic indications in the present World Health Organization diarrhoea management guidelines. Conversely, if there is no evidence of benefit, these results will support the current avoidance of antibiotics except in dysentery or cholera, thereby avoiding inappropriate use of antibiotics and reaffirming the current guidelines. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03130114. Registered on April 26 2017