Priority setting in early childhood development: an analytical framework for economic evaluation of interventions

BACKGROUND: Early childhood development (ECD) sets the foundation for healthy and successful lives with important ramifications for education, labour market outcomes and other domains of well-being. Even though a large number of interventions that promote ECD have been implemented and evaluated globally, there is currently no standardised framework that allows a comparison of the relative cost-effectiveness of these interventions. METHODS: We first reviewed the existing literature to document the main approaches that have been used to assess the relative effectiveness of interventions that promote ECD, including early parenting and at-home psychosocial stimulation interventions. We then present an economic evaluation framework that builds on these reviewed approaches and focuses on the immediate impact of interventions on motor, cognitive, language and socioemotional skills. Last, we apply our framework to compute the relative cost-effectiveness of interventions for which recent effectiveness and costing data were published. For this last part, we relied on a recently published review to obtain effect sizes documented in a consistent manner across interventions. FINDINGS: Our framework enables direct value-for-money comparison of interventions across settings. Cost-effectiveness estimates, expressed in $ per units of improvement in ECD outcomes, vary greatly across interventions. Given that estimated costs vary by orders of magnitude across interventions while impacts are relatively similar, cost-effectiveness rankings are dominated by implementation costs and the interventions with higher value for money are generally those with a lower implementation cost (eg, psychosocial interventions involving limited staff). CONCLUSIONS: With increasing attention and investment into ECD programmes, consistent assessments of the relative cost-effectiveness of available interventions are urgently needed. This paper presents a unified analytical framework to address this need and highlights the rather remarkable range in both costs and cost-effectiveness across currently available intervention strategies

Impact of scaling up prenatal nutrition interventions on human capital outcomes in low- and middle-income countries: a modeling analysis

BACKGROUND: Prenatal nutrition interventions can lead to improved birth outcomes, which in turn are associated with better education and human capital outcomes later in life. OBJECTIVE: We estimated the impact of scaling up iron-folic acid (IFA), calcium, multiple micronutrient (MMS), and balanced energy protein (BEP) supplementation for pregnant women, on human capital outcomes in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). METHODS: We used mathematical modeling with proportional reductions in adverse birth outcomes to estimate the potential gains in school years and lifetime income due to scaling up each prenatal nutrition intervention. Estimates of intervention effects on birth outcomes were derived from meta-analyses of randomized trials. Estimates of the associations between birth outcomes and schooling and lifetime income were derived from de novo meta-analyses of observational studies. RESULTS: Across 132 LMIC, scaling up prenatal nutrition interventions to 90% coverage was estimated to increase school years and lifetime income per birth cohort by: 2.28 million y (95% uncertainty intervals (UI): -0.44, 6.26) and $8.26 billion (95$18.9 billion (95% UI: 0.59, 44.6) for calcium; 5.02 million y (95% UI: 1.07, 11.0) and $18.1 billion (95$1.34 billion (95% UI: -1.10, 3.10 billion) for BEP supplementation. South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa tended to have the largest estimated regional gains in school years for scaling up each intervention due to the large population size and high burden of poor birth outcomes. Absolute income benefits for each intervention were estimated to be the largest in Latin America, where returns to education and incomes are higher relative to other regions. CONCLUSION: Increasing coverage of prenatal nutrition interventions in LMIC may lead to substantial gains in schooling and lifetime income. Decision makers should consider the potential long-term human capital returns of investments in maternal nutrition

Large gains in schooling and income are possible from minimizing adverse birth outcomes in 121 low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study

While the global contributions of adverse birth outcomes to child morbidity and mortality is relatively well documented, the potential long-term schooling and economic consequences of adverse birth outcomes has not been estimated. We sought to quantify the potential schooling and lifetime income gains associated with reducing the excess prevalence of adverse birth outcomes in 121 low- and middle-income countries. We used a linear deterministic model to estimate the potential gains in schooling and lifetime income that may be achieved by attaining theoretical minimum prevalence of low birthweight, preterm birth and small-for-gestational age births at the national, regional, and global levels. We estimated that potential total gains across the 121 countries from reducing low birthweight to the theoretical minimum were 20.3 million school years (95% CI: 6.0,34.8) and US$68.8 billion (95$ 41.9 billion (95% CI: 6.1,80.9) in lifetime income. The potential gains from small-for-gestational age were 39.5 million (95% CI: 19.1,60.3) school years and US$113.6 billion (95% CI: 55.5,174.2) in lifetime income gained. In summary, reducing the excess prevalence of low birthweight, preterm birth or small-for-gestational age births in low- and middle-income countries may lead to substantial long-term human capital gains in addition to benefits on child mortality, growth, and development as well as on risk of non-communicable diseases in adults and other consequences across the life course

Birth weight and adult earnings: a systematic review and meta-analysis

While substantial evidence has identified low birth weight (LBW; <2500 g) as a risk factor for early life morbidity, mortality and poor childhood development, relatively little is known on the links between birth weight and economic outcomes in adulthood. The objective of this study was to systematically review the economics (EconLit) and biomedical literature (Medline) and estimate the pooled association between birth weight and adult earnings. A total of 15 studies from mostly high-income countries were included. On average, each standard deviation increase in birth weight was associated with a 2.75% increase in annual earnings [(95% CI: 1.44 to 4.07); 9 estimates]. A negative, but not statistically significant, association was found between being born LBW and earnings, compared to individuals not born LBW [mean difference: -3.41% (95% CI: -7.55 to 0.73); 7 estimates]. No studies from low-income countries were identified and all studies were observational. Overall, birth weight was consistently associated with adult earnings, and therefore, interventions that improve birth weight may provide beneficial effects on adult economic outcomes

Anemia prevalence and etiology among women, men, and children in Ethiopia: a study protocol for a national population-based survey.

BACKGROUND: Anemia remains a public health challenge in Ethiopia, affecting an estimated 56% of children under age 5 years, 23% of women of reproductive age and 18% of adult men. However, anemia etiology and the relative contribution of underlying risk factors for anemia remains unclear and has hindered implementation of anemia control programs. METHODS/DESIGN: Anemia Etiology in Ethiopia (AnemEE) is a population-based cross-sectional survey of six regions of Ethiopia that includes children, women of reproductive age, and men from regionally representative households. The survey will include detailed assessment of anemia, iron, inflammatory and nutritional biomarkers, diet, comorbidities, and other factors. The objectives of AnemEE are 1) to generate evidence for decision-making on the etiology of anemia in Ethiopia among men, women and children and 2) to simulate the potential effect of iron fortification and other interventions on the prevalence of anemia and risk of iron overload. DISCUSSION: AnemEE will provide the most comprehensive evaluation of anemia etiology in Ethiopia to date due to its detailed assessment of diet, biomarkers, infections and other risk factors in a population-based sample. By generating evidence and simulating potential interventions, AnemEE will inform the development of high-impact anemia control programs and policies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04002466 . Registered on 28 June 2019. Retrospectively registered

Evaluating implementation of LEAPS, a youth-led early childhood care and education intervention in rural Pakistan: protocol for a stepped wedge cluster-randomized trial

BACKGROUND: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight the importance of investments in early childhood care and education (ECCE) and youth development. Given Pakistan's large young population, and gender and urban-rural inequalities in access to education, training, and employment, such investments offer opportunities. LEAPS is a youth-led ECCE program that trains female youth, 18-24 years, as Community Youth Leaders (CYLs) to deliver high-quality ECCE for children, 3.5-5.5 years, in rural Sindh, Pakistan. METHODS: We use a stepped wedge cluster-randomized trial to evaluate implementation of LEAPS. Ninety-nine clusters will be randomized to receive the intervention in one of three 7-month steps (33 clusters/step). The primary outcome is children's school readiness (indexed by the total score on the International Development and Early Learning Assessment (IDELA)). Secondary child outcomes are children's IDELA domain scores and executive functions. Data are collected in cross-sectional surveys of 1089 children (11 children/cluster from 99 clusters) aged 4.5-5.5 years at four timepoints (baseline and at the end of each step). Additionally, we will enroll three non-randomized youth participant open cohorts, one per step (33 CYLs: 66 comparison youth per cohort; 99:198 in total). Youth cohorts will be assessed at enrollment and every 7 months thereafter to measure secondary outcomes of youth personal and professional development, depressive symptoms, and executive functions. A non-randomized school cohort of 330 LEAPS students (10 students/cluster from 33 clusters) will also be enrolled and assessed during Step 1 after intervention rollout and at endline. The quality of the learning environment will be assessed in each LEAPS ECCE center and in a comparison center at two timepoints midway following rollout and at endline. A concurrent mixed-methods implementation evaluation will assess program fidelity and quality, and the extent to which a technical support strategy is successful in strengthening systems for program expansion. A cost evaluation will assess cost per beneficiary. Data collection for implementation and cost evaluations will occur in Step 3. DISCUSSION: Youth-led models for ECCE offer a promising approach to support young children and youth. This study will contribute to the evidence as a means to promote sustainable human development across multiple SDG targets. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03764436 . Registered on December 5, 2018

Linear Growth through 12 Years is Weakly but Consistently Associated with Language and Math Achievement Scores at Age 12 Years in 4 Low- or Middle-Income Countries.

BackgroundWhether linear growth through age 12 y is associated with language and math achievement at age 12 y remains unclear.ObjectiveOur objective was to investigate associations of linear growth through age 12 y with reading skill, receptive vocabulary, and mathematics performance at age 12 y in 4 low- or middle-income countries (LMICs).MethodsWe analyzed data from the Young Lives Younger Cohort study in Ethiopia (n&nbsp;=&nbsp;1275), India (n&nbsp;=&nbsp;1350), Peru (n&nbsp;=&nbsp;1402), and Vietnam (n&nbsp;=&nbsp;1594). Age 1, 5, 8, and 12 y height-for-age z scores (HAZ) were calculated. Language and math achievement at age 12 y was assessed with the use of country-specific adaptations of the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test, the Early Grades Reading Assessment, and a mathematics test; all test scores were standardized by age within country. We used path analysis to examine associations of HAZ with achievement scores. Twelve models were examined at each age (3 tests across 4 countries).ResultsMean HAZ in each country was &lt;-1.00 at all ages. Overall, linear growth through age 12 y was associated with 0.4-3.4% of the variance in achievement scores. HAZ at 1 y was positively and significantly associated with the test score in 11 of the 12 models. This association was significantly mediated through HAZ at 5, 8, and 12 y in 9 of the models. HAZ at 5, 8, and 12 y was positively and significantly associated with test scores in 8, 8, and 6 models, respectively. These associations were mediated through HAZ at older ages in 6 of the HAZ at 5-y models and in 6 of the HAZ at 8-y models.ConclusionChild relative linear growth between ages 1 and 12 y was weakly but consistently associated with language and math achievement at age 12 y in 4 LMICs

Could a Shigella vaccine impact long-term health outcomes?: Summary report of an expert meeting to inform a Shigella vaccine public health value proposition, March 24 and 29, 2021.

Shigellosis is a leading cause of diarrhea and dysentery in young children from low to middle-income countries and adults experiencing traveler's diarrhea worldwide. In addition to acute illness, infection by Shigella bacteria is associated with stunted growth among children, which has been linked to detrimental long-term health, developmental, and economic outcomes. On March 24 and 29, 2021, PATH convened an expert panel to discuss the potential impact of Shigella vaccines on these long-term outcomes. Based on current empirical evidence, this discussion focused on whether Shigella vaccines could potentially alleviate the long-term burden associated with Shigella infections. Also, the experts provided recommendations about how to best model the burden, health and vaccine impact, and economic consequences of Shigella infections. This international multidisciplinary panel included 13 scientists, physicians, and economists from multiple relevant specialties. According to the panel, while the relationship between Shigella infections and childhood growth deficits is complex, this relationship likely exists. Vaccine probe studies are the crucial next step to determine whether vaccination could ameliorate Shigella infection-related long-term impacts. Infants should be vaccinated during their first year of life to maximize their protection from severe acute health outcomes and ideally reduce stunting risk and subsequent negative long-term developmental and health impacts. With vaccine schedule crowding, targeted or combination vaccination approaches would likely increase vaccine uptake in high-burden areas. Shigella impact and economic assessment models should include a wider range of linear growth outcomes. Also, these models should produce a spectrum of results-ones addressing immediate benefits for usual health care decision-makers and others that include broader health impacts, providing a more comprehensive picture of vaccination benefits. While many of the underlying mechanisms of this relationship need better characterization, the remaining gaps can be best addressed by collecting data post-vaccine introduction or through large trials

Depression at antiretroviral therapy initiation and clinical outcomes among a cohort of Tanzanian women living with HIV

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to assess the relationship of depression at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation with mortality and clinical outcomes among Tanzanian women living with HIV. DESIGN: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 1487 women who initiated ART in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. METHODS: Symptoms of depression and anxiety were assessed using a Tanzanian-adapted and validated version of the Hopkins Symptom Checklist. Participants attended monthly clinic visits during the first 2 years of ART and CD4 T-cell counts were assessed every 4 months. Proportional hazard models were used to assess the relationship of depression with mortality and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Symptoms consistent with depression were prevalent among 57.8% of women at ART initiation. After multivariate adjustment, including social support and stigma, depression at ART initiation was associated with increased risk of mortality [hazard ratio (HR): 1.92; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-3.20; P = 0.01] and incidence of severe anemia (hemoglobin 0.05). CONCLUSION: Elimination of depression may reduce mortality during the first 2 years of ART by one-third in our study cohort. Randomized trials and rigorous implementation studies are needed to evaluate the individual and population-level effects of integrated mental health interventions and HIV treatment approaches in resource-limited settings

Development and validation of an early childhood development scale for use in low-resourced settings

Background:Low-cost, cross-culturally comparable measures of the motor, cognitive, and socioemotional skills of children under 3 years remain scarce. In the present paper, we aim to develop a new caregiver-reported early childhood development (ECD) scale designed to be implemented as part of household surveys in low-resourced settings. Methods: We evaluate the acceptability, test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and discriminant validity of the new ECD items, subscales, and full scale in a sample of 2481 18- to 36-month-old children from peri-urban and rural Tanzania. We also compare total and subscale scores with performance on the Bayley Scales of Infant Development (BSID-III) in a subsample of 1036 children. Qualitative interviews from 10 mothers and 10 field workers are used to inform quantitative data. Results: Adequate levels of acceptability and internal consistency were found for the new scale and its motor, cognitive, and socioemotional subscales. Correlations between the new scale and the BSID-III were high (r > .50) for the motor and cognitive subscales, but low (r < .20) for the socioemotional subscale. The new scale discriminated between children’s skills based on age, stunting status, caregiver-reported disability, and adult stimulation. Test-retest reliability scores were variable among a subset of items tested. Conclusions: Results of this study provide empirical support from a low-income country setting for the acceptability, reliability, and validity of a new caregiver-reported ECD scale. Additional research is needed to test these and other caregiver reported items in children in the full 0 to 3 year range across multiple cultural and linguistic settings