Increased shear in the North Atlantic upper-level jet stream over the past four decades

Earth’s equator-to-pole temperature gradient drives westerly mid-latitude jet streams through thermal wind balance. In the upper atmosphere, anthropogenic climate change is strengthening this meridional temperature gradient by cooling the polar lower stratosphere and warming the tropical upper troposphere acting to strengthen the upper-level jet stream. In contrast, in the lower atmosphere, Arctic amplification of global warming is weakening the meridional temperature gradient acting to weaken the upper-level jet stream. Therefore, trends in the speed of the upper-level jet stream represent a closely balanced tug-of-war between two competing effects at different altitudes. It is possible to isolate one of the competing effects by analysing the vertical shear—the change in wind speed with height—instead of the wind speed, but this approach has not previously been taken. Here we show that, although the zonal wind speed in the North Atlantic polar jet stream at 250 hectopascals has not changed since the start of the observational satellite era in 1979, the vertical shear has increased by 15 per cent (with a range of 11–17 per cent) according to three different reanalysis datasets. We further show that this trend is attributable to the thermal wind response to the enhanced upper-level meridional temperature gradient. Our results indicate that climate change may be having a larger impact on the North Atlantic jet stream than previously thought. The increased vertical shear is consistent with the intensification of shear-driven clear-air turbulence expected from climate change which will affect aviation in the busy transatlantic flight corridor by creating a more turbulent flying environment for aircraft. We conclude that the effects of climate change and variability on the upper-level jet stream are being partly obscured by the traditional focus on wind speed rather than wind shear

Impact of ENSO longitudinal position on teleconnections to the NAO

While significant improvements have been made in understanding how the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts both North American and Asian climate, its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) remains less clear. Observations indicate that ENSO exhibits a highly complex relationship with the NAO-associated atmospheric circulation. One critical contribution to this ambiguous ENSO/NAO relationship originates from ENSO’s diversity in its spatial structure. In general, both eastern (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño events tend to be accompanied by a negative NAO-like atmospheric response. However, for two different types of La Niña the NAO response is almost opposite. Thus, the NAO responses for the CP ENSO are mostly linear, while nonlinear NAO responses dominate for the EP ENSO. These contrasting extra-tropical atmospheric responses are mainly attributed to nonlinear air-sea interactions in the tropical eastern Pacific. The local atmospheric response to the CP ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is highly linear since the air-sea action center is located within the Pacific warm pool, characterized by relatively high climatological SSTs. In contrast, the EP ENSO SST anomalies are located in an area of relatively low climatological SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Here only sufficiently high positive SST anomalies during EP El Niño events are able to overcome the SST threshold for deep convection, while hardly any anomalous convection is associated with EP La Niña SSTs that are below this threshold. This ENSO/NAO relationship has important implications for NAO seasonal prediction and places a higher requirement on models in reproducing the full diversity of ENSO

Trends and connections across the Antarctic cryosphere

Satellite observations have transformed our understanding of the Antarctic cryosphere. The continent holds the vast majority of Earth’s fresh water, and blankets swathes of the Southern Hemisphere in ice. Reductions in the thickness and extent of floating ice shelves have disturbed inland ice, triggering retreat, acceleration and drawdown of marine-terminating glaciers. The waxing and waning of Antarctic sea ice is one of Earth’s greatest seasonal habitat changes, and although the maximum extent of the sea ice has increased modestly since the 1970s, inter-annual variability is high, and there is evidence of longer-term decline in its extent

Global lake responses to climate change

Climate change is one of the most severe threats to global lake ecosystems. Lake surface conditions, such as ice cover, surface temperature, evaporation and water level, respond dramatically to this threat, as observed in recent decades. In this Review, we discuss physical lake variables and their responses to climate change. Decreases in winter ice cover and increases in lake surface temperature modify lake mixing regimes and accelerate lake evaporation. Where not balanced by increased mean precipitation or inflow, higher evaporation rates will favour a decrease in lake level and surface water extent. Together with increases in extreme-precipitation events, these lake responses will impact lake ecosystems, changing water quantity and quality, food provisioning, recreational opportunities and transportation. Future research opportunities, including enhanced observation of lake variables from space (particularly for small water bodies), improved in situ lake monitoring and the development of advanced modelling techniques to predict lake processes, will improve our global understanding of lake responses to a changing climate

The Use of Bovine Xenogeneic Bone Graft for Dega Pelvic Osteotomy in Children with Hip Dysplasia: A Retrospective Study of 147 Treated Hips

Backgrounds: Dega pelvic osteotomy is commonly used to correct acetabular dysplasia in children with open triradiate cartilage. The use of bovine xenogeneic bone graft (Tutobone®) for Dega osteotomy has not been reported so far. This study aimed to determine the clinical and radiological outcome in a large series of children with hip dysplasia who were treated by Dega osteotomy using a bovine xenogeneic block for stabilisation. Methods: A retrospective, single-centre study was conducted including 101 patients (147 hips) with different underlying diseases. The acetabular angle of Hilgenreiner (AA) and the lateral center-edge angle (LCA) were analysed to quantify the correction of acetabular indices. Graft incorporation was assessed using the Goldberg scoring system. Results: the mean preoperative AA improved from 28.1 (SD: 6.7) to 14.7 (SD: 5.1) after surgery (p < 0.001). The mean preoperative LCA improved from 9.9 (SD: 6.7) to 21.8 (SD: 6.8) postoperatively (p < 0.001). Both indices remained stable at the one-year follow-up examination. Graft incorporation was excellent with a mean Goldberg score of 6.6. Heterotopic ossification occurred in one hip without clinical relevance. Graft-related complications were not noted. Conclusions: Dega osteotomy using Tutobone® is safe and effective in the treatment of acetabular dysplasia in children independent of the underlying disease

Resolving the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Interaction Conundrum

Understanding the interaction between the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans has challenged the climate community for decades. Typically, boreal summer Atlantic Nino events are followed by vigorous Pacific events of opposite sign around two seasons later. However, incorporating the equatorial Atlantic information to variabilities internal to the Pacific lends no significant additional predictive skill for the subsequent El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here we resolve this conundrum in a physically consistent frame, in which the nascent onset of a Pacific event rapidly induces an opposite-signed summer equatorial Atlantic event and the lead correlation of Atlantic over Pacific is a statistical artifact of ENSO's autocorrelation. This Pacific-to-Atlantic impact is limited to a short window around late spring due to seasonally-amplified Atlantic atmosphere-ocean coupling. This new frame reconciles the discrepancies between the observed and multi-model simulated inter-basin relationship, providing a major advance in understanding seasonally-modulated inter-basin climate connections as well as their predictability.11Nsciescopu

Revisiting ENSO/Indian Ocean Dipole phase relationships

Here we show that the characteristics of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), such as its power spectrum and phase relationship with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can be succinctly explained by ENSO combination mode (C-mode) wind and heat flux forcing together with a seasonal modulation of the air/sea coupled Indian Ocean (IO) Bjerknes feedback. This model explains the observed high-frequency near-annual IOD variability in terms of deterministic ENSO/annual cycle interactions. ENSO-independent IOD events can be understood as a seasonally modulated ocean response to white noise atmospheric forcing. Under this new physical null hypothesis framework, IOD predictability is determined by both ENSO predictability and the ENSO signal-to-noise ratio. We further emphasize that lead/lag correlations between different climate variables are easily misinterpreted when not accounting properly for the seasonal modulation of the underlying climate phenomena. © 2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.11

A Comprehensive Assessment of Biologicals Contained Within Commercial Airliner Cabin Air

Both culture-based and culture-independent, biomarker-targeted microbial enumeration and identification technologies were employed to estimate total microbial and viral burden and diversity within the cabin air of commercial airliners. Samples from each of twenty flights spanning three commercial carriers were collected via air-impingement. When the total viable microbial population was estimated by assaying relative concentrations of the universal energy carrier ATP, values ranged from below detection limits (BDL) to 4.1 x 106 cells/cubic m of air. The total viable microbial population was extremely low in both of Airline A (approximately 10% samples) and C (approximately 18% samples) compared to the samples collected aboard flights on Airline A and B (approximately 70% samples). When samples were collected as a function of time over the course of flights, a gradual accumulation of microbes was observed from the time of passenger boarding through mid-flight, followed by a sharp decline in microbial abundance and viability from the initiation of descent through landing. It is concluded in this study that only 10% of the viable microbes of the cabin air were cultivable and suggested a need to employ state-of-the art molecular assay that measures both cultivable and viable-but-non-cultivable microbes. Among the cultivable bacteria, colonies of Acinetobacter sp. were by far the most profuse in Phase I, and Gram-positive bacteria of the genera Staphylococcus and Bacillus were the most abundant during Phase II. The isolation of the human pathogens Acinetobacter johnsonii, A. calcoaceticus, Janibacter melonis, Microbacterium trichotecenolyticum, Massilia timonae, Staphylococcus saprophyticus, Corynebacterium lipophiloflavum is concerning, as these bacteria can cause meningitis, septicemia, and a handful of sometimes fatal diseases and infections. Molecular microbial community analyses exhibited presence of the alpha-, beta-, gamma-, and delta- proteobacteria, as well as Gram-positive bacteria, Fusobacteria, Cyanobacteria, Deinococci, Bacterioidetes, Spirochetes, and Planctomyces in varying abundance. Neisseria meningitidis rDNA sequences were retrieved in great abundance from Airline A followed by Streptococcus oralis/mitis sequences. Pseudomonas synxantha sequences dominated Airline B clone libraries, followed by those of N. meningitidis and S. oralis/mitis. In Phase II, Airline C, sequences representative of more than 113 species, enveloping 12 classes of bacteria, were retrieved. Proteobacterial sequences were retrieved in greatest frequency (58% of all clone sequences), followed in short order by those stemming from Gram-positives bacteria (31% of all clone sequences). As for overall phylogenetic breadth, Gram-positive and alpha-proteobacteria seem to have a higher affinity for international flights, whereas beta-and gamma-proteobacteria are far more common about domestic cabin air parcels in Airline C samples. Ultimately, the majority of microbial species circulating throughout the cabin airs of commercial airliners are commensal, infrequently pathogenic normal flora of the human nasopharynx and respiratory system. Many of these microbes likely originate from the oral and nasal cavities, and lungs of passengers and flight crew and are disseminated unknowingly via routine conversation, coughing, sneezing, and stochastic passing of fomites. The data documented in this study will be useful to generate a baseline microbial population database and can be utilized to develop biosensor instrumentation for monitoring microbial quality of cabin or urban air