Symptoms and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Positivity in the General Population in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND: “Classic” symptoms (cough, fever, loss of taste/smell) prompt severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing in the United Kingdom. Studies have assessed the ability of different symptoms to identify infection, but few have compared symptoms over time (reflecting variants) and by vaccination status. METHODS: Using the COVID-19 Infection Survey, sampling households across the United Kingdom, we compared symptoms in PCR-positives vs PCR-negatives, evaluating sensitivity of combinations of 12 symptoms (percentage symptomatic PCR-positives reporting specific symptoms) and tests per case (TPC) (PCR-positives or PCR-negatives reporting specific symptoms/ PCR-positives reporting specific symptoms). RESULTS: Between April 2020 and August 2021, 27 869 SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive episodes occurred in 27 692 participants (median 42 years), of whom 13 427 (48%) self-reported symptoms (“symptomatic PCR-positives”). The comparator comprised 3 806 692 test-negative visits (457 215 participants); 130 612 (3%) self-reported symptoms (“symptomatic PCR-negatives”). Symptom reporting in PCR-positives varied by age, sex, and ethnicity, and over time, reflecting changes in prevalence of viral variants, incidental changes (eg, seasonal pathogens (with sore throat increasing in PCR-positives and PCR-negatives from April 2021), schools reopening) and vaccination rollout. After May 2021 when Delta emerged, headache and fever substantially increased in PCR-positives, but not PCR-negatives. Sensitivity of symptom-based detection increased from 74% using “classic” symptoms, to 81% adding fatigue/weakness, and 90% including all 8 additional symptoms. However, this increased TPC from 4.6 to 5.3 to 8.7. CONCLUSIONS: Expanded symptom combinations may provide modest benefits for sensitivity of PCR-based case detection, but this will vary between settings and over time, and increases tests/case. Large-scale changes to targeted PCR-testing approaches require careful evaluation given substantial resource and infrastructure implications

Ct threshold values, a proxy for viral load in community SARS-CoV-2 cases, demonstrate wide variation across populations and over time

Background: Information on SARS-CoV-2 in representative community surveillance is limited, particularly cycle threshold (Ct) values (a proxy for viral load). Methods: We included all positive nose and throat swabs 26 April 2020 to 13 March 2021 from the UK’s national COVID-19 Infection Survey, tested by RT-PCR for the N, S, and ORF1ab genes. We investigated predictors of median Ct value using quantile regression. Results: Of 3,312,159 nose and throat swabs, 27,902 (0.83%) were RT-PCR-positive, 10,317 (37%), 11,012 (40%), and 6550 (23%) for 3, 2, or 1 of the N, S, and ORF1ab genes, respectively, with median Ct = 29.2 (~215 copies/ml; IQR Ct = 21.9–32.8, 14–56,400 copies/ml). Independent predictors of lower Cts (i.e. higher viral load) included self-reported symptoms and more genes detected, with at most small effects of sex, ethnicity, and age. Single-gene positives almost invariably had Ct > 30, but Cts varied widely in triple-gene positives, including without symptoms. Population-level Cts changed over time, with declining Ct preceding increasing SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Of 6189 participants with IgG S-antibody tests post-first RT-PCR-positive, 4808 (78%) were ever antibody-positive; Cts were significantly higher in those remaining antibody negative. Conclusions: Marked variation in community SARS-CoV-2 Ct values suggests that they could be a useful epidemiological early-warning indicator. Funding: Department of Health and Social Care, National Institutes of Health Research, Huo Family Foundation, Medical Research Council UK; Wellcome Trust

Effect of Delta variant on viral burden and vaccine effectiveness against new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK

The effectiveness of the BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 vaccines against new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections requires continuous re-evaluation, given the increasingly dominant B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant. In this study, we investigated the effectiveness of these vaccines in a large, community-based survey of randomly selected households across the United Kingdom. We found that the effectiveness of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 against infections (new polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive cases) with symptoms or high viral burden is reduced with the B.1.617.2 variant (absolute difference of 10–13% for BNT162b2 and 16% for ChAdOx1) compared to the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant. The effectiveness of two doses remains at least as great as protection afforded by prior natural infection. The dynamics of immunity after second doses differed significantly between BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1, with greater initial effectiveness against new PCR-positive cases but faster declines in protection against high viral burden and symptomatic infection with BNT162b2. There was no evidence that effectiveness varied by dosing interval, but protection was higher in vaccinated individuals after a prior infection and in younger adults. With B.1.617.2, infections occurring after two vaccinations had similar peak viral burden as those in unvaccinated individuals. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination still reduces new infections, but effectiveness and attenuation of peak viral burden are reduced with B.1.617.2

Monitoring populations at increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community using population-level demographic and behavioural surveillance

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly evolving, with emerging variants and fluctuating control policies. Real-time population screening and identification of groups in whom positivity is highest could help monitor spread and inform public health messaging and strategy. METHODS: To develop a real-time screening process, we included results from nose and throat swabs and questionnaires taken 19 July 2020-17 July 2021 in the UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey. Fortnightly, associations between SARS-CoV-2 positivity and 60 demographic and behavioural characteristics were estimated using logistic regression models adjusted for potential confounders, considering multiple testing, collinearity, and reverse causality. FINDINGS: Of 4,091,537 RT-PCR results from 482,677 individuals, 29,903 (0·73%) were positive. As positivity rose September-November 2020, rates were independently higher in younger ages, and those living in Northern England, major urban conurbations, more deprived areas, and larger households. Rates were also higher in those returning from abroad, and working in healthcare or outside of home. When positivity peaked December 2020-January 2021 (Alpha), high positivity shifted to southern geographical regions. With national vaccine roll-out from December 2020, positivity reduced in vaccinated individuals. Associations attenuated as rates decreased between February-May 2021. Rising positivity rates in June-July 2021 (Delta) were independently higher in younger, male, and unvaccinated groups. Few factors were consistently associated with positivity. 25/45 (56%) confirmed associations would have been detected later using 28-day rather than 14-day periods. INTERPRETATION: Population-level demographic and behavioural surveillance can be a valuable tool in identifying the varying characteristics driving current SARS-CoV-2 positivity, allowing monitoring to inform public health policy. FUNDING: Department of Health and Social Care (UK), Welsh Government, Department of Health (on behalf of the Northern Ireland Government), Scottish Government, National Institute for Health Research

SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike IgG antibody responses after second dose of ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 and correlates of protection in the UK general population

Antibody responses are an important part of immunity after Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination. However, antibody trajectories and the associated duration of protection after a second vaccine dose remain unclear. In this study, we investigated anti-spike IgG antibody responses and correlates of protection after second doses of ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 vaccines for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the United Kingdom general population. In 222,493 individuals, we found significant boosting of anti-spike IgG by the second doses of both vaccines in all ages and using different dosing intervals, including the 3-week interval for BNT162b2. After second vaccination, BNT162b2 generated higher peak levels than ChAdOX1. Older individuals and males had lower peak levels with BNT162b2 but not ChAdOx1, whereas declines were similar across ages and sexes with ChAdOX1 or BNT162b2. Prior infection significantly increased antibody peak level and half-life with both vaccines. Anti-spike IgG levels were associated with protection from infection after vaccination and, to an even greater degree, after prior infection. At least 67% protection against infection was estimated to last for 2–3 months after two ChAdOx1 doses, for 5–8 months after two BNT162b2 doses in those without prior infection and for 1–2 years for those unvaccinated after natural infection. A third booster dose might be needed, prioritized to ChAdOx1 recipients and those more clinically vulnerable

Prevalence of persistent SARS-CoV-2 in a large community surveillance study

Persistent SARS-CoV-2 infections may act as viral reservoirs that could seed future outbreaks 1–5, give rise to highly divergent lineages 6–8, and contribute to cases with post-acute COVID-19 sequelae (Long Covid) 9,10. However, the population prevalence of persistent infections, their viral load kinetics, and evolutionary dynamics over the course of infections remain largely unknown. Using viral sequence data collected as part of a national infection survey, we identified 381 individuals with SARS-CoV-2 RNA at high titre persisting for at least 30 days, of which 54 had viral RNA persisting at least 60 days. We refer to these as ‘persistent infections’ since available evidence suggests they represent ongoing viral replication, although the persistence of non-replicating RNA cannot be ruled out in all. Persistently infected individuals had more than 50% higher odds of self-reporting Long Covid compared to non-persistently infected individuals. We estimate that 0.1- 0.5% of infections may become persistent with typically rebounding high viral loads and last for at least 60 days. In some individuals, we identified many viral amino acid substitutions, indicating periods of strong positive selection, while others had no consensus change in the sequences for prolonged periods, consistent with weak selection. Substitutions included mutations that are lineage-defining for SARS-CoV-2 variants, at target sites for monoclonal antibodies, and/or commonly found in immunocompromised patients 11–14. This work has significant implications for understanding and characterising SARS-CoV-2 infection, epidemiology, and evolution

A brief history of learning classifier systems: from CS-1 to XCS and its variants

© 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. The direction set by Wilson’s XCS is that modern Learning Classifier Systems can be characterized by their use of rule accuracy as the utility metric for the search algorithm(s) discovering useful rules. Such searching typically takes place within the restricted space of co-active rules for efficiency. This paper gives an overview of the evolution of Learning Classifier Systems up to XCS, and then of some of the subsequent developments of Wilson’s algorithm to different types of learning

Sulfur isotope measurement of sulfate and sulfide by high-resolution MC-ICP-MS

Author Posting. © Elsevier B.V. , 2008. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Chemical Geology 253 (2008): 102-113, doi:10.1016/j.chemgeo.2008.04.017.We have developed a technique for the accurate and precise determination of 34S/32S isotope ratios (δ34S) in sulfur-bearing minerals using solution and laser ablation multiple-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS). We have examined and determined rigorous corrections for analytical difficulties such as instrumental mass bias, unresolved isobaric interferences, blanks, and laser ablation- and matrix-induced isotopic fractionation. Use of high resolution sector-field mass spectrometry removes major isobaric interferences from O2+. Standard–sample bracketing is used to correct for the instrumental mass bias of unknown samples. Blanks on sulfur masses arising from memory effects and residual oxygen-tailing are typically minor (< 0.2‰, within analytical error), and are mathematically removed by on-peak zero subtraction and by bracketing of samples with standards determined at the same signal intensity (within 20%). Matrix effects are significant (up to 0.7‰) for matrix compositions relevant to many natural sulfur-bearing minerals. For solution analysis, sulfur isotope compositions are best determined using purified (matrix-clean) sulfur standards and sample solutions using the chemical purification protocol we present. For in situ analysis, where the complex matrix cannot be removed prior to analysis, appropriately matrix-matching standards and samples removes matrix artifacts and yields sulfur isotope ratios consistent with conventional techniques using matrix-clean analytes. Our method enables solid samples to be calibrated against aqueous standards; a consideration that is important when certified, isotopically-homogeneous and appropriately matrix-matched solid standards do not exist. Further, bulk and in situ analyses can be performed interchangeably in a single analytical session because the instrumental setup is identical for both. We validated the robustness of our analytical method through multiple isotope analyses of a range of reference materials and have compared these with isotope ratios determined using independent techniques. Long-term reproducibility of S isotope compositions is typically 0.20‰ and 0.45‰ (2σ) for solution and laser analysis, respectively. Our method affords the opportunity to make accurate and relatively precise S isotope measurement for a wide range of sulfur-bearing materials, and is particularly appropriate for geologic samples with complex matrix and for which high-resolution in situ analysis is critical.Support was provided by National Science Foundations grants OCE-0327448 to P.R.C. and W.B. and OCE-0622982 to O.J.R. Support for L.A.B. was provided by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Plasma Facility Development Grant (NSF-EAR/IF-0318137)

The influence of systemic inflammation, dietary intake and stage of disease on rate of weight loss in patients with gastro-oesophageal cancer

Although weight loss is often a dominant symptom in patients with upper gastrointestinal malignancy, there is a lack of objective evidence describing changes in nutritional status and potential associations between weight loss, food intake, markers of systemic inflammation and stage of disease in such patients. Two hundred and twenty patients diagnosed with gastric/oesophageal cancer were studied. Patients underwent nutritional assessment consisting of calculation of body mass index, measurement of weight loss, dysphagia scoring and estimation of dietary intake. Serum acute-phase protein concentrations were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. In all, 182 (83%) patients had lost weight at diagnosis (median loss, 7% body weight). Weight loss was associated with poor performance status, advanced disease stage, dysphagia, reduced dietary intake and elevated serum C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations. Multiple regression identified dietary intake (estimate of effect, 38%), serum CRP concentrations (estimate of effect, 34%) and stage of disease (estimate of effect, 28%) as independent variables in determining degree of weight loss. Mechanisms other than reduced dietary intake or mechanical obstruction by the tumour appear to be involved in the nutritional decline in patients with gastro-oesophageal malignancy. Recognition that systemic inflammation plays a role in nutritional depletion may inform the development of appropriate therapeutic strategies to ameliorate weight loss, making patients more tolerant of cancer-modifying treatments such as chemotherapy