Random errors are not necessarily politically neutral

Errors are inevitable in the implementation of any complex process. Here we examine the effect of random errors on Single Transferable Vote (STV) elections, a common approach to deciding multi-seat elections. It is usually expected that random errors should have nearly equal effects on all candidates, and thus be fair. We find to the contrary that random errors can introduce systematic bias into election results. This is because, even if the errors are random, votes for different candidates occur in different patterns that are affected differently by random errors. In the STV context, the most important effect of random errors is to invalidate the ballot. This removes far more votes for those candidates whose supporters tend to list a lot of preferences, because their ballots are much more likely to be invalidated by random error. Different validity rules for different voting styles mean that errors are much more likely to penalise some types of votes than others. For close elections this systematic bias can change the result of the election

Auditing Ranked Voting Elections with Dirichlet-Tree Models: First Steps

Ranked voting systems, such as instant-runo voting (IRV) and single transferable vote (STV), are used in many places around the world. They are more complex than plurality and scoring rules, pre- senting a challenge for auditing their outcomes: there is no known risk- limiting audit (RLA) method for STV other than a full hand count. We present a new approach to auditing ranked systems that uses a sta- tistical model, a Dirichlet-tree, that can cope with high-dimensional pa- rameters in a computationally e cient manner. We demonstrate this ap- proach with a ballot-polling Bayesian audit for IRV elections. Although the technique is not known to be risk-limiting, we suggest some strategies that might allow it to be calibrated to limit risk

Using Positive Deviance for Determining Successful Weight- Control Practices

Based on positive deviance (examining the practices of successful individuals), we identified five primary themes from 36 strategies that help to maintain long-term weight loss (weight control) in 61 people. We conducted in-depth interviews to determine what successful individuals did and/or thought about regularly to control their weight. The themes included weight-control practices related to (a) nutrition: increase water, fruit, and vegetable intake, and consistent meal timing and content; (b) physical activity: follow and track an exercise routine at least 3×/week; (c) restraint: practice restraint by limiting and/or avoiding unhealthy foods; (d) self-monitor: plan meals, and track calories/weight progress; and (e) motivation: participate in motivational programs and cognitive processes that affect weight-control behavior. Using the extensive data involving both the practices and practice implementation, we used positive deviance to create a comprehensive list of practices to develop interventions for individuals to control their weight

Advance Care Planning as a Shared Endeavor: Completion of ACP Documents in a Multidisciplinary Cancer Program

Objective—We examined the roles of oncology providers in advance care planning (ACP) delivery in the context of a multidisciplinary cancer program. Methods—Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 200 women with recurrent and/or metastatic breast or gynecologic cancer. Participants were asked to name providers they deemed important in their cancer care and whether they had discussed and/or completed ACP documentation. Evidence of ACP documentation was obtained from chart reviews. Results—Fifty percent of participants self-reported completing an advance directive (AD) and 48.5% had named a healthcare power of attorney (HPA), 38.5% had completed both, and 39.0% had completed neither document. Among women who self-reported completion of the documents, only 24.0% and 14.4% of women respectively had documentation of an AD and HPA in their chart. Completion of an AD was associated with number (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.49) and percentage (AOR = 6.58) of providers with whom the participant had a conversation about end-of-life decisions. Participants who named a social worker or nurse practitioner were more likely to report having completed an AD. Participants who named at least one provider in common (e.g., named the same oncologist) were more likely to have comparable behaviors related to naming a HPA (AOR = 1.13, p = 0.011) and completion of an AD (AOR = 1.06, p = 0.114). Conclusions—Despite the important role of physicians in facilitating ACP discussions, involvement of other staff was associated with a greater likelihood of completion of ACP documentation. Patients may benefit from opportunities to discuss ACP with multiple members of their cancer care team

Fixed, Free, and Fixed: The Fickle Phylogeny of Extant Crinoidea (Echinodermata) and Their Permian-Triassic Origin

Although the status of Crinoidea (sea lilies and featherstars) as sister group to all other living echinoderms is well-established, relationships among crinoids, particularly extant forms, are debated. All living species are currently placed in Articulata, which is generally accepted as the only crinoid group to survive the Permian–Triassic extinction event. Recent classifications have recognized five major extant taxa: Isocrinida, Hyocrinida, Bourgueticrinina, Comatulidina and Cyrtocrinida, plus several smaller groups with uncertain taxonomic status, e.g., Guillecrinus, Proisocrinus and Caledonicrinus. Here we infer the phylogeny of extant Crinoidea using three mitochondrial genes and two nuclear genes from 59 crinoid terminals that span the majority of extant crinoid diversity. Although there is poor support for some of the more basal nodes, and some tree topologies varied with the data used and mode of analysis, we obtain several robust results. Cyrtocrinida, Hyocrinida, Isocrinida are all recovered as clades, but two stalked crinoid groups, Bourgueticrinina and Guillecrinina, nest among the featherstars, lending support to an argument that they are paedomorphic forms. Hence, they are reduced to families within Comatulida. Proisocrinus is clearly shown to be part of Isocrinida, and Caledonicrinus may not be a bourgueticrinid. Among comatulids, tree topologies show little congruence with current taxonomy, indicating that much systematic revision is required. Relaxed molecular clock analyses with eight fossil calibration points recover Articulata with a median date to the most recent common ancestor at 231–252 mya in the Middle to Upper Triassic. These analyses tend to support the hypothesis that the group is a radiation from a small clade that passed through the Permian–Triassic extinction event rather than several lineages that survived. Our tree topologies show various scenarios for the evolution of stalks and cirri in Articulata, so it is clear that further data and taxon sampling are needed to recover a more robust phylogeny of the group

Large-Scale Genome-Wide Meta-Analysis of Polycystic Ovary Syndrome Suggests Shared Genetic Architecture for Different Diagnosis Criteria

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a disorder characterized by hyperandrogenism, ovulatory dysfunction and polycystic ovarian morphology. Affected women frequently have metabolic disturbances including insulin resistance and dysregulation of glucose homeostasis. PCOS is diagnosed with two different sets of diagnostic criteria, resulting in a phenotypic spectrum of PCOS cases. The genetic similarities between cases diagnosed based on the two criteria have been largely unknown. Previous studies in Chinese and European subjects have identified 16 loci associated with risk of PCOS. We report a fixed-effect, inverse-weighted-variance meta-analysis from 10,074 PCOS cases and 103,164 controls of European ancestry and characterisation of PCOS related traits. We identified 3 novel loci (near PLGRKT, ZBTB16 and MAPRE1), and provide replication of 11 previously reported loci. Only one locus differed significantly in its association by diagnostic criteria; otherwise the genetic architecture was similar between PCOS diagnosed by self-report and PCOS diagnosed by NIH or non-NIH Rotterdam criteria across common variants at 13 loci. Identified variants were associated with hyperandrogenism, gonadotropin regulation and testosterone levels in affected women. Linkage disequilibrium score regression analysis revealed genetic correlations with obesity, fasting insulin, type 2 diabetes, lipid levels and coronary artery disease, indicating shared genetic architecture between metabolic traits and PCOS. Mendelian randomization analyses suggested variants associated with body mass index, fasting insulin, menopause timing, depression and male-pattern balding play a causal role in PCOS. The data thus demonstrate 3 novel loci associated with PCOS and similar genetic architecture for all diagnostic criteria. The data also provide the first genetic evidence for a male phenotype for PCOS and a causal link to depression, a previously hypothesized comorbid disease. Thus, the genetics provide a comprehensive view of PCOS that encompasses multiple diagnostic criteria, gender, reproductive potential and mental health

SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity are associated with genetic variants affecting gene expression in a variety of tissues

Variability in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity between individuals is partly due to genetic factors. Here, we identify 4 genomic loci with suggestive associations for SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and 19 for COVID-19 disease severity. Four of these 23 loci likely have an ethnicity-specific component. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) signals in 11 loci colocalize with expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) associated with the expression of 20 genes in 62 tissues/cell types (range: 1:43 tissues/gene), including lung, brain, heart, muscle, and skin as well as the digestive system and immune system. We perform genetic fine mapping to compute 99% credible SNP sets, which identify 10 GWAS loci that have eight or fewer SNPs in the credible set, including three loci with one single likely causal SNP. Our study suggests that the diverse symptoms and disease severity of COVID-19 observed between individuals is associated with variants across the genome, affecting gene expression levels in a wide variety of tissue types