Climatic effects of 1950-2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols - Part 2: Climate response

We investigate the climate response to changing US anthropogenic aerosol sources over the 1950–2050 period by using the NASA GISS general circulation model (GCM) and comparing to observed US temperature trends. Time-dependent aerosol distributions are generated from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model applied to historical emission inventories and future projections. Radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols peaked in 1970–1990 and has strongly declined since due to air quality regulations. We find that the regional radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols elicits a strong regional climate response, cooling the central and eastern US by 0.5–1.0 °C on average during 1970–1990, with the strongest effects on maximum daytime temperatures in summer and autumn. Aerosol cooling reflects comparable contributions from direct and indirect (cloud-mediated) radiative effects. Absorbing aerosol (mainly black carbon) has negligible warming effect. Aerosol cooling reduces surface evaporation and thus decreases precipitation along the US east coast, but also increases the southerly flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico resulting in increased cloud cover and precipitation in the central US. Observations over the eastern US show a lack of warming in 1960–1980 followed by very rapid warming since, which we reproduce in the GCM and attribute to trends in US anthropogenic aerosol sources. Present US aerosol concentrations are sufficiently low that future air quality improvements are projected to cause little further warming in the US (0.1 °C over 2010–2050). We find that most of the warming from aerosol source controls in the US has already been realized over the 1980–2010 period

Improved quantification of Chinese carbon fluxes using CO2/CO correlations in Asian outflow

[1] We use observed CO2:CO correlations in Asian outflow from the TRACE-P aircraft campaign (February–April 2001), together with a three-dimensional global chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM), to constrain specific components of the east Asian CO2 budget including, in particular, Chinese emissions. The CO2/CO emission ratio varies with the source of CO2 (different combustion types versus the terrestrial biosphere) and provides a characteristic signature of source regions and source type. Observed CO2/CO correlation slopes in east Asian boundary layer outflow display distinct regional signatures ranging from 10–20 mol/mol (outflow from northeast China) to 80 mol/mol (over Japan). Model simulations using best a priori estimates of regional CO2 and CO sources from Streets et al. [2003] (anthropogenic), the CASA model (biospheric), and Duncan et al. [2003] (biomass burning) overestimate CO2 concentrations and CO2/CO slopes in the boundary layer outflow. Constraints from the CO2/CO slopes indicate that this must arise from an overestimate of the modeled regional net biospheric CO2 flux. Our corrected best estimate of the net biospheric source of CO2 from China for March–April 2001 is 3200 Gg C/d, which represents a 45 % reduction of the net flux from the CASA model. Previous analyses of the TRACE-P data had found that anthropogenic Chinese C

IPEP: The integrated performance evaluation program for the Department of Energy`s Office of Environmental Management

The quality of the analytical data being provided to DOE`s Office of Environmental Management (EM) for environmental restoration activities and the extent to which these data meet the data quality objectives are critical in the decision-making process. One of several quality metrics that can be used in evaluating a laboratory is its performance in performance evaluation (PE) programs. In support of DOE`s environmental restoration and waste management efforts, EM has been charged with developing and implementing a program to assess the performance of participating laboratories. Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and DOE`s Environmental Measurements Laboratory (EML) and Radiological and Environmental Sciences Laboratory (RESL) have been collaborating on the development and implementation of a comprehensive Integrated Performance Evaluation Program (IPEP) for DOE-wide implementation. The IPEP will use results from existing inorganic, organic, and radiological PE programs when these are available and appropriate for the analytes and matrices being determined for DOE`s EM activities. Existing programs include the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency`s (EPA`s) Contract Laboratory Program (CLP), the Water Supply (WS) and Water Pollution (WP) PE studies for inorganic and organic analytes, and DOE`s Quality Assessment Program (QAP) for radiological analytes. In addition, DOE has begun the development of the Mixed Analyte Performance Evaluation Program (MAPEP) to address the needs of the DOE Complex. These PE programs provide a spectrum of matrices and analytes covering the various inorganic, organic, and low-level radiologic categories found in routine environmental and waste samples. These PE programs already provide some assessment of laboratory performance; IPEP will expand these assessments by evaluating historical performance, as well as results from multiple PE programs, thereby providing an enhanced usage of the PE program information

Isospin-mixing corrections for fp-shell Fermi transitions

Isospin-mixing corrections for superallowed Fermi transitions in {\it fp}-shell nuclei are computed within the framework of the shell model. The study includes three nuclei that are part of the set of nine accurately measured transitions as well as five cases that are expected to be measured in the future at radioactive-beam facilities. We also include some new calculations for $^{10}$C. With the isospin-mixing corrections applied to the nine accurately measured $ft$ values, the conserved-vector-current hypothesis and the unitarity condition of the Cabbibo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) matrix are tested.Comment: 13 pages plus five tables. revtex macro

Search for muonic decays of the antiproton at the Fermilab Antiproton Accumulator

A search for antiproton decay has been made at the Fermilab Antiproton Accumulator. Limits are placed on six antiproton decay modes which contain a final-state muon. At the 90% C.L. we find that tau/B(mu gamma) > 5.0 x 10^4 yr, tau/B(mu pi0) > 4.8 x 10^4 yr, tau/B(mu eta) > 7.9 x 10^3 yr, tau/B(mu gamma gamma) > 2.3 x 10^4 yr, tau/B(mu K0S > 4.3 x 10^3 yr, and tau/B(mu K0L) > 6.5 x 10^3 yr.Comment: 8 pages + 3 Postscript figure

Regional-scale chemical transport modeling in support of the analysis of observations obtained during the TRACE-P experiment

Data obtained during the TRACE-P experiment is used to evaluate how well the CFORS/STEM-2K1 regional-scale chemical transport model is able to represent the aircraft observations. Thirty-one calculated trace gas and aerosol parameters are presented and compared to the in situ data. The regional model is shown to accurately predict many of the important features observed. The mean values of all the model parameters in the lowest 1 km are predicted within ±30% of the observed values. The correlation coefficients (R) for the meteorological parameters are found to be higher than those for the trace species. For example, for temperature, R \u3e 0.98. Among the trace species, ethane, propane, and ozone show the highest values (0.8 \u3c R \u3c 0.9), followed by CO, SO2, and NOy, NO and NO2 had the lowest values (R \u3c 0.4). Analyses of pollutant transport into the Yellow Sea by frontal events are presented and illustrate the complex nature of outflow. Biomass burning from SE Asia is transported in the warm conveyor belt at altitudes above ∼2 km and at latitudes below 30N. Outflow of pollution emitted along the east coast of China in the postfrontal regions is typically confined to the lower ∼2 km and results in high concentrations with plume-like features in the Yellow Sea. During these situations the model underpredicts CO and black carbon (among other species). An analysis of ozone production in this region is also presented. In and around the highly industrialized regions of East Asia, where fossil fuel usage dominates, ozone is NMHC-limited. South of ∼30-35N, ozone production is NOx-limited, reflecting the high NMHC/NOx ratios due to the large contributions to the emissions from biomass burning, biogenics sources, and biofuel usage in central China and SE Asia. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union

Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols - Part 1: Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing

We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950–2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980–2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970–1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100° W) of −2.0 W m−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0 W m−2), nitrate (−0.2 W m−2), organic carbon (−0.2 W m−2), and black carbon (+0.4 W m−2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50%. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8 W m−2 direct and 1.0 W m−2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3 W m−2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.Engineering and Applied Science