Risk modelling of outcome after general and trauma surgery (the IRIS score)

Background: A practical, easy to use model was developed to stratify risk groups in surgical patients: the Identification of Risk In Surgical patients (IRIS) score. Methods: Over 15 years an extensive database was constructed in a general surgery unit, containing all patients who underwent general or trauma surgery. A logistic regression model was developed to predictmortality. This model was simplified to the IRIS score to enhance practicality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed. Results: The database contained a consecutive series of 33 224 patients undergoing surgery. Logistic regression analysis gave the following formula for the probability of mortality: P (mortality) = A/(1 + A), where A = exp (-4•58 + (0•26 × acute admission) + (0•63 × acute operation) + (0•044 × age) + (0•34 × severity of surgery)). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0•92. The IRIS score also included age (divided into quartiles, 0-3 points), acute admission, acute operation and grade of surgery. The AUC predicting postoperative mortality was 0•90. Conclusion: The IRIS score accurately predicted mortality after general or trauma surgery. Copyright © 2010 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by JohnWiley & Sons Ltd

Saccular Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms Patient Characteristics, Clinical Presentation, Treatment, and Outcomes in the Netherlands

Objective: The aim of this was to analyze differences between saccularshaped abdominal aortic aneurysms (SaAAAs) and fusiform abdominal aortic aneurysms (FuAAAs) regarding patient characteristics, treatment, and outcome, to advise a threshold for intervention for SaAAAs.Background: Based on the assumption that SaAAAs are more prone to rupture, guidelines suggest early elective treatment. However, little is known about the natural history of SaAAAs and the threshold for intervention is not substantiated.Methods: Observational study including primary repairs of degenerative AAAs in the Netherlands between 2016 and 2018 in which the shape was registered, registered in the Dutch Surgical Aneurysm Audit (DSAA). Patients were stratified by urgency of surgery; elective versus acute (symptomatic/ruptured). Patient characteristics, treatment, and outcome were compared between SaAAAs and FuAAAs.Results: A total of 7659 primary AAA-patients were included, 6.1% (n = 471) SaAAAs and 93.9% (n = 7188) FuAAAs. There were 5945 elective patients (6.5% SaAAA) and 1714 acute (4.8% SaAAA). Acute SaAAApatients were more often female (28.9% vs 17.2%, P = 0.007) compared with acute FuAAA-patients. SaAAAs had smaller diameters than FuAAAs, in elective (53.0mm vs 61 mm, P = 0.000) and acute (68mm vs 75 mm, P = 0.002) patients, even after adjusting for sex. In addition, 25.2% of acute SaAAA-patients presented with diameters <55mm and 8.4% <45 mm, versus 8.1% and 0.6% of acute FuAAA-patients (P = 0.000). Postoperative outcomes did not significantly differ between shapes in both elective and acute patients.Conclusions: SaAAAs become acute at smaller diameters than FuAAAs in DSAA patients. This study therefore supports the current idea that SaAAAs should be electively treated at smaller diameters than FuAAAs. The exact diameter threshold for elective treatment of SaAAAs is difficult to determine, but a diameter of 45mm seems to be an acceptable threshold.Vascular Surger