Project management under uncertainty

Morris' (1986) analysis of the factors affecting project success and failure is considered in relation to the psychology of judgement under uncertainty. A model is proposed whereby project managers may identify the specific circumstances in which human decision-making is prone to systematic error, and hence may apply a number of de-biasing techniques

Car driver speed choice in Scotland.

Drivers who commit driving violations, such as speeding, crash more. Driving violations reduce safety margins amplifying the impact of driver errors. Speed is placed in the context of car use and its attractions. It is argued that speed choice results from the interaction of opportunities, obligations and inclinations. Data from large-scale surveys of Scottish car drivers support this and show that many drivers in Scotland prefer to drive at or below the speed limit and that many say they are currently cutting their normal driving speed. Suggestions for promoting safer and more sustainable speed choices are made

Factors influencing the behaviour of people who drive at work.

Work-related road accidents account for around 25-33% of all road fatalities in Britain and in the region of 250 serious injuries per week. Previous studies show that those who drive for work have a higher accident risk than the general driving population even when their greater exposure is factored out.Quantitative and qualitative data was collected from Strathclyde drivers who drive as part of their work. The data show that drivers who have points on their licence or have recently received a speeding ticket are more likely to have been involved in a road traffic accident and these accidents are more likely to have occurred during work time. This confirms the theory that cameras spot crash magnets and illustrates the importance of educating those who drive as part of their work, in particular, to slow down. This paper also examines why occupational drivers are vulnerable on the roads by giving an insight into their attitudes and motives surrounding the driving task.A greater understanding of the beliefs and behaviours of drivers who are at risk of being involved in a third of road traffic accidents should serve to inform more effective road safety policies. With the possible advent of a graduated penalty system, attitudes to the current points and fine system will be of interest in a group the security of whose livelihood is most likely to be impacted by such changes

Factors influencing the behaviour of people who drive at work.

Work-related road accidents account for around 25-33% of all road fatalities in Britain and in the region of 250 serious injuries per week. Previous studies show that those who drive for work have a higher accident risk than the general driving population even when their greater exposure is factored out.Quantitative and qualitative data was collected from Strathclyde drivers who drive as part of their work. The data show that drivers who have points on their licence or have recently received a speeding ticket are more likely to have been involved in a road traffic accident and these accidents are more likely to have occurred during work time. This confirms the theory that cameras spot crash magnets and illustrates the importance of educating those who drive as part of their work, in particular, to slow down. This paper also examines why occupational drivers are vulnerable on the roads by giving an insight into their attitudes and motives surrounding the driving task.A greater understanding of the beliefs and behaviours of drivers who are at risk of being involved in a third of road traffic accidents should serve to inform more effective road safety policies. With the possible advent of a graduated penalty system, attitudes to the current points and fine system will be of interest in a group the security of whose livelihood is most likely to be impacted by such changes

The Effects of Dietary Intervention on HIV Dyslipidaemia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background Efficacy of dietary intervention for treatment and prevention of HIV-related lipid disturbances has not been well established. Methods We conducted a systematic search of electronic databases supplemented with manual searches and conference abstracts, without language restriction. All randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with blood lipid outcomes, involving dietary intervention or supplementation for the treatment or prevention of adult HIV dyslipidaemia, versus no or other intervention were included. Two authors using predefined data fields, including study quality indicators, extracted data independently. Results Eighteen studies (n = 873) met our inclusion criteria. Seven RCTs for omega-3 supplementation (n = 372), and four RCTs for dietary intervention (n = 201) were meta-analysed using random-effects models. Mild statistical heterogeneity was observed. Dietary intervention reduced triglyceride levels by −0·46 mmol/l (95%CI: −0·85 to −0·07 mmol/l) compared to control. Omega-3 supplementation reduced triglyceride levels by −1.12 mmol/l, (95%CI: −1·57 to −0·67 mmol/l) and total cholesterol, −0·36 mmol/l (95%CI: −0·67 to −0·05 mmol/l) compared to placebo/control. Conclusions Both omega-3 supplementation and dietary intervention reduced triglyceride level, with the latter possibly to a smaller extent. While dietary interventions are beneficial, more stringent dietary approaches may be necessary to fully address lipid disturbances in HIV patients

Randomised controlled pilot study to assess the feasibility of a Mediterranean Portfolio dietary intervention for cardiovascular risk reduction in HIV dyslipidaemia:A study protocol

Introduction: HIV drug treatment has greatly improved life expectancy, but increased risk of cardiovascular disease remains, potentially due to the additional burdens of infection, inflammation and antiretroviral treatment. The Mediterranean Diet has been shown to reduce cardiovascular risk and mortality in the general population, but no evidence exists for this effect in the HIV population. This study will explore the feasibility of a randomised controlled trial (RCT) to examine whether a Mediterranean-style diet that incorporates a portfolio of cholesterol-lowering foods, reduces cardiovascular risk in people with HIV dyslipidaemia. Methods and analysis: 60 adults with stable HIV infection on antiretroviral treatment and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol >3 mmol/L will be recruited from 3 West Midlands HIV services. Participants will be randomised 1:1 to 1 of 2 dietary interventions, with stratification by gender and smoking status. Participants allocated to Diet1 will receive advice to reduce saturated fat intake, and those to Diet2 on how to adopt the Mediterranean Portfolio Diet with additional cholesterol-lowering foods (nuts, stanols, soya, oats, pulses). Measurements of fasting blood lipids, body composition and arterial stiffness will be conducted at baseline, and month 6 and 12 of the intervention. Food intake will be assessed using the Mediterranean Diet Score, 3-day food diaries and metabolomic biomarkers. Questionnaires will be used to assess quality of life and process evaluation. Qualitative interviews will explore barriers and facilitators to making dietary changes, and participant views on the intervention. Qualitative data will be analysed using the Framework Method. Feasibility will be assessed in terms of trial recruitment, retention, compliance to study visits and the intervention. SD of outcomes will inform the power calculation of the definitive RCT. Ethics: The West Midlands Ethics Committee has approved this study and informed consent forms. This trial is the first to test cholesterol-lowering foods in adults with HIV

Driving as part of your work may damage your health.

Company or fleet car drivers are part of a much larger group who drive a car as part of their work. This paper reports findings taken from a recent DETR funded study of factors affecting car use choices of the crash involvement and driving style of such drivers and makes some suggestions for changing the culture of the road

Quantitative measurements using soft-x-ray streak cameras

A Soft X-Ray Streak Camera (SXRSC) is a fast timing instrument sensitive to x rays from 100 eV to 300 keV. The instrument has excellent time resolution (approx. 15 ps) and large dynamic range (approx. 10/sup 3/) which are well suited for measuring x-ray pulses produced by laser-fusion targets. The SXRSC uses a thin transmission photocathode to convert x-rays to a secondary electron signal which is accelerated, focused, and deflected onto a phosphor producing an image of the x-ray pulse time history. In the past, such instruments have been used only to make relative measurements of the time history. At LLNL we have calibrated the SXRSC in order to make absolute intensity measurements of the soft x-ray flux from laser fusion targets. Such measurements will assist in understanding the laser plasma processes and conditions needed to attain laser-produced fusion. Because of the nature of the instrument, we have calibrated it in the dynamic mode using a small laser-produced pulsed x-ray source

A crossover randomised controlled trial of oral mandibular advancement devices for obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea (TOMADO)

Rationale Mandibular advancement devices (MADs) are used to treat obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea syndrome (OSAHS) but evidence is lacking regarding their clinical and cost-effectiveness in less severe disease. Objectives To compare clinical- and cost-effectiveness of a range of MADs against no treatment in mild to moderate OSAHS. Measurements and methods This open-label, randomised, controlled, crossover trial was undertaken at a UK sleep centre. Adults with Apnoea-Hypopnoea Index (AHI) 5–<30/h and Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) score ≥9 underwent 6 weeks of treatment with three nonadjustable MADs: self-moulded (SleepPro 1; SP1); semi-bespoke (SleepPro 2; SP2); fully-bespoke MAD (bMAD); and 4 weeks no treatment. Primary outcome was AHI scored by a polysomnographer blinded to treatment. Secondary outcomes included ESS, quality of life, resource use and cost. Main results 90 patients were randomised and 83 were analysed. All devices reduced AHI compared with no treatment by 26% (95% CI 11% to 38%, p=0.001) for SP1, 33% (95% CI 24% to 41%) for SP2 and 36% (95% CI 24% to 45%, p<0.001) for bMAD. ESS was 1.51 (95% CI 0.73 to 2.29, p<0.001, SP1) to 2.37 (95% CI 1.53 to 3.22, p<0.001, bMAD) lower than no treatment (p<0.001 for all). Compliance was lower for SP1, which was the least preferred treatment at trial exit. All devices were cost-effective compared with no treatment at a £20 000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) threshold. SP2 was the most cost-effective up to £39 800/QALY. Conclusions Non-adjustable MADs achieve clinically important improvements in mild to moderate OSAHS and are cost-effective

High temperature GaAs X-ray detectors

Two GaAs p+-i-n+ mesa X-ray photodiodes were characterized for their electrical and photon counting X-ray spectroscopic performance over the temperature range of 100 °C to –20 °C. The devices had 10 μm thick i layers with different diameters: 200 μm (D1) and 400 μm (D2). The electrical characterization included dark current and capacitance measurements at internal electric field strengths of up to 50 kV/cm. The determined properties of the two devices were compared with previously reported results that were made with a view to informing the future development of photon counting X-ray spectrometers for harsh environments, e.g., X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy of planetary surfaces in high temperature environments. The best energy resolution obtained (Full Width at Half Maximum at 5.9 keV) decreased from 2.00 keV at 100 °C to 0.66 keV at –20 °C for the spectrometer with D1, and from 2.71 keV at 100 °C to 0.71 keV at –20 °C for the spectrometer with D2. Dielectric noise was found to be the dominant source of noise in the spectra, apart from at high temperatures and long shaping times, where the main source of photopeak broadening was found to be the white parallel noise